Try the model
TXST

Texas State 31 at South Alabama 41

USA
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Clayton Stewart punt for 37 yds , Tra Minter returns for no gain to the SAlab 23 Tra Minter fumbled, recovered by TexSt Markeveon Coleman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+24.8Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:02: Javen Banks run for 1 yd for a TD (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +10.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:38: Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 25 yds for a TD (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +18.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:10: Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Thompson return for 55 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 18 (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +13.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:10: SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 18 — USA win probability +29.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:02: Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 23 yds for a TD (Evan Orth pass to Deonta Moore for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +33.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:54TXST 4th & 3 at USA 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:54USA 4th & 11 at TXST 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:56USA 4th & 3 at TXST 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:41USA 4th & 1 at USA 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:15TXST 4th & 1 at USA 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−2.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:02USA 4th & 19 at USA 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:19TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:43TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:50USA 4th & 7 at USA 40, down 8
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:01TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 12, up 8
    Numbers favored punt by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%−3.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:38USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:10TXST 4th & 2 at USA 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−3.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:27TXST 4th & 1 at USA 24, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−4.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−19.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:27USA 4th & 2 at USA 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.6%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:21USA 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:21TXST 4th & 7 at USA 35, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−1.7
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%−3.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:18USA 4th & 9 at USA 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:58TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−4.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:33USA 4th & 18 at TXST 18, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 9.7 ptsWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%−9.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−21.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:41TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:02TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:43USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:38TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:10USA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:33USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
74.8%
Willie Jones III run for 19 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
74.8%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-9
74.8%
Willie Jones III sacked by Chason Milner for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 38 Willie Jones III fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 38
0
74.8%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
74.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 37 yds , Tra Minter returns for no gain to the SAlab 23 Tra Minter fumbled, recovered by TexSt Markeveon ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1226% → 26%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
74.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 9 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
74.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
74.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 7 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
74.2%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
74.3%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
73.9%
James Sherman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
74.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
74.0%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+8
73.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+8
73.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Deonta Moore for 8 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
74.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+15
74.2%
Tra Minter run for 15 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
74.3%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
74.3%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Kordell RodgersSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-3
74.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Deonta Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
73.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 38 yds , Hutch White returns for no gain to the TexSt 18 Hutch White fumbled, recovered by SAlab A.J. DeShazorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0474% → 74%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
73.7%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
73.7%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+2
73.5%
Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
73.6%
Gavin Patterson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1527% → 31%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
73.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 5 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.7%
Jah'Marae Sheread run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 5
50
+50
69.5%
Willie Jones III run for 50 yds for a TD (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.4%
Maurice Mayo run for 3 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-3
70.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
70.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
70.5%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:1532% → 36%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
68.2%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
64.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 42 yds for a TD (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:2566% → 66%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
65.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 19Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+23
65.0%
Tra Minter run for 23 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.9%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
65.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 3 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
65.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Deonta Moore for no gain Deonta Moore fumbled, forced by Hal Vinson, recovered by TexSt Ishmael DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
61.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 9 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
61.2%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
61.3%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
61.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:1662% → 68%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+54
61.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 54 yds Jamarius Way fumbled, forced by JaShon Waddy, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
62.6%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
62.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for no gain to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
61.1%
Orth, Evan pass incomplete to Baker, Kawaan, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor,AnthonyJ) 5 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.5%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:5036% → 51%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
63.8%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+21
64.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 21 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
63.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
63.8%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+16
64.3%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 16 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
63.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
63.3%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
63.3%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+8
63.3%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 8 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
60.5%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.2%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.5%
Javen Banks run for 1 yd for a TD (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
53.3%
Baker, Kawaan rush for loss of 1 yard to the USA46 (Waddy,JaShon;Daniels,Nikolas), PENALTY USA holding (Way, Jamarius) 10 yards to the USA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
51.6%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+1
51.6%
Deonta Moore run for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 19
OWN 38
0
51.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
51.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3851% → 47%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.9%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
52.4%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Anthony D. Taylor, broken up by Riley ColeSimilar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:2250% → 60%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+63
50.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 63 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
55.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-6
55.8%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-2
56.9%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
57.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 47 yds, downed at the SAlab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1954% → 54%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
55.6%
Evan Orth run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
54.1%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Caeveon PattonSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
53.6%
Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5849% → 48%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
50.6%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 2 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-8
50.9%
Willie Jones III sacked by Chason Milner for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 16
OWN 12
0
51.9%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 16
OWN 12
-2
51.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0050% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
49.7%
Tra Minter run for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
50.9%
Deonta Moore run for 8 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
52.7%
Maurice Mayo run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.6%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
52.2%
Moore, Deonta rush for 7 yards to the TXST44 (Newman,Josh), PENALTY TXST offside defense (Vinson,Hal) 5 yards to the TXST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+5
53.4%
Maurice Mayo run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38 Maurice Mayo fumbled, forced by JaShon Waddy, recovered by TexSt A.J. KrawczykSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:2556% → 75%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
44.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 15 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
43.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
43.4%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-14
44.0%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST down for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
42.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
43.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+9
43.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to T.J. Bedford for 9 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
42.9%
JonesIII,Willie rush for 5 yards to the USA12 (Lawrence, Nigel), PENALTY TXST holding (Jordan,Reece) 10 yards to the USA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+2
43.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 18
OPP 25
+25
24.8%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 25 yds for a TD (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.8%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
30.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
30.4%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+42
30.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the SOUTHALA 30 TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21INT TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3275% → 63%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
25.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 4 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
25.1%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
25.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 9 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
24.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
23.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+55
36.9%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Thompson return for 55 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 18 (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
66.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 6:4342% → 49%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
58.0%
Willie Jones III run for 18 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
55.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-2
55.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+10
56.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the SOUTHALA 43 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
54.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
54.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
55.3%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Bedford,TJ, PENALTY USA offside defense (Stewart, Taji) 5 yards to the USA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
54.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+2
57.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
53.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-1
53.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
49.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+41
51.4%
James Sherman 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Nigel Lawrence return for 19 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:0656% → 55%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
55.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Jamarius Way) to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+2
54.7%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-5
54.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Max Charite) to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+8
54.3%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+8
52.8%
Evan Orth run for 8 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+26
54.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Khameron Taylor for 26 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
62.0%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
62.1%
Kawaan Baker run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-1
59.9%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
55.0%
Gavin Patterson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
46.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
44.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
44.9%
JonesIII,Willie pass incomplete to White,Hutch, PENALTY USA holding (Buggs, Malcolm) 10 yards to the USA38, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-13
44.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36 TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 23
OWN 49
+1
47.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 22
50
+2
47.4%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 2 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+13
49.0%
Willie Jones III pass complete to T.J. Bedford for 13 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
48.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 29 yds, downed at the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 45%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
49.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Hadon Merchant) to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 13
OWN 3
0
49.5%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+4
48.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 4 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
46.7%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
45.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2963% → 58%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
50
-2
37.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-6
38.9%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+6
39.5%
Willie Jones III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
42.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4949% → 89%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+40
48.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Sam Harris for 25 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Dean Taylor) to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
56.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+13
52.0%
Evan Orth run for 13 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+7
55.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 7 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
88.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 23 yds for a TD (Evan Orth pass to Deonta Moore for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+29
76.7%
Willie Jones III pass intercepted Jalen Thompson return for 29 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 30TD
9 plays · 4 yds · 1:1190% → 98%
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
89.6%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
91.5%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
90.1%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
94.8%
Orth, Evan pass complete to Smith, Collier for 3 yards to the TXST0, clock 00:39, PENALTY USA pass interference (Taylor,Khameron) 15 yards to the TXST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
98.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 18 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 31Uncategorized
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
97.1%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete Willie Jones III sacked by Jeremiah Littles for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 17 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Willie Jones III) to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+40
97.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Javen Banks for 40 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:02
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 23 yds for a TD (Evan Orth pass to Deonta Moore for Two-Point Conversion)
+33
TD · Q3 6:10
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 18
+29.1
TD · Q3 9:38
Willie Jones III pass complete to Hutch White for 25 yds for a TD (James Sherman KICK)
-18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com