2018 · Week 3 · Sep 12, 2018 · Barker-Lane Stadium
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Win probability · CAM
modelCAM aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAM scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:47 · Brad Dennis punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Outlow at the CCaro 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:41: Rocky Reid run for 1 yd for a TD (Colin Gary KICK) — CAM win probability +7.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 38 yds for a TD CAMPBELL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +8.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:38: Torrance Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +13.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:03: Torrance Marable run for 30 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +16.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:25: Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +12.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 14:17CCU 4th & 6 at CAM 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snapGo for it42.1%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call42.5%81% to makePunt38.9%−3.6average punt
- Q2 10:09CAM 4th & 9 at CAM 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it53.8%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q2 0:47CAM 4th & 4 at CAM 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it46.9%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.3%average punt
- Q3 10:38CAM 4th & 18 at CAM 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it28.1%−2.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q3 6:55CAM 4th & 5 at CAM 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q3 3:17CAM 4th & 10 at CAM 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q3 1:04CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 35, up 24Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 15:00CAM 4th & 9 at CAM 20, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q4 4:49CAM 4th & 9 at CCU 11, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.127% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%87% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:51CAM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.6%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:08CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.2%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:50CAM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.5%97% to makeGo for two55.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:41CAM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.1%97% to makeGo for two63.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:09CCU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.2%97% to makeGo for two43.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26CCU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.0%97% to makeGo for two50.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:38CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:03CCU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:25CCU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:17CCU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCAMDrive 1TD12 plays · 80 yds · 3:0963% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
63.4%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Aaron Blockmon for 13 yds to the Camp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
63.4%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Rocky Reid for 8 yds to the Camp 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+15
63.4%
SMITH, Daniel pass incomplete to BLOCKMON, Aaron, PENALTY CCU personal foul (Jackson, Tarron) 15 yards to the CCU38, 1ST DOWN CAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
63.4%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rocky Reid, broken up by E.J. PorterSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+20
63.4%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Zach Roderick for 20 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
64.7%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Caleb Snead for 18 yds for a TD (Colin Gary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3936% → 38%
Q1 11:47
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+7
63.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 7 yds to the Camp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
63.9%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the Camp 23 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
63.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josh Anderson for 8 yds to the Camp 15Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
61.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 3TD9 plays · 69 yds · 3:1163% → 67%
CCUDrive 4FG11 plays · 55 yds · 4:2634% → 36%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
66.0%
Anderson, Kilton pass incomplete to Heiligh, Jaivon (PREWITT, Kam), PENALTY CAM roughing passer (DOZIER, Damien) 15 yards to the CAM45, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+8
64.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Alex James for 8 yds to the Camp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+2
65.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Alex James for 2 yds to the Camp 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 5TD11 plays · 68 yds · 3:2964% → 73%
Q2 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+7
64.6%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Michael Wooten for 7 yds to the Camp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+12
65.1%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Trey Sanders for 12 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+38
65.2%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Aaron Blockmon for 38 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD3 plays · 76 yds · 0:1629% → 36%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
71.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Kilton Anderson) to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+81
64.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 81 yds for a TD CAMPBELL Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declined, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
CCUDrive 8TD7 plays · 81 yds · 3:1435% → 47%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
64.6%
Marable, Torrance rush for loss of 5 yards to the CCU14 (JONES, Dorian;BOYKIN, Ridge), PENALTY CAM face mask (FLOWERS, Darren) 13 yards to the CCU32, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
64.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CCaro Torrance MarableSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+18
64.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 18 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+38
53.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 38 yds for a TD CAMPBELL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 9PUNT11 plays · 17 yds · 3:3956% → 53%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.3%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Aaron Blockmon for 3 yds to the Camp 28Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
56.5%
Daniel Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the Camp 22 Daniel Smith fumbled, recovered by Camp Rocky ReidSimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
54.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Trey Sanders for 14 yds to the Camp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
56.6%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Michael Wooten for 5 yds to the Camp 44Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
53.2%
Brad Dennis punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Outlow at the CCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10INT4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.0%
Anderson, Kilton pass incomplete to Johnson, Sterling (PREWITT, Kam), PENALTY CAM pass interference (PREWITT, Kam) 15 yards to the CCU40, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
50.3%
Kilton Anderson pass intercepted Deontae Henderson return for 19 yds to the Camp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2247% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
52.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 21 yds to the Camp 46 for a 1ST down CAMPBELL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Camp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Ky'Jon Tyler, broken up by Levi WigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q3 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-12
35.9%
Daniel Smith sacked by Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 12 yards to the Camp 17 Daniel Smith fumbled, recovered by Camp Shuler Littleton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:2366% → 82%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
17.8%
Torrance Marable run for 30 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
20.5%
Brad Dennis punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Outlow at the CCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD5 plays · 72 yds · 2:3882% → 96%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
18.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 7 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+22
16.4%
Bryce Carpenter run for 7 yds to the Camp 36 for a 1ST down CAMPBELL Penalty, illegal block (Kam Prewitt) to the Camp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
4.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:17
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+1
6.1%
Brad Dennis punt for 49 yds , Laqavious Paul returns for 1 yd to the CCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2296% → 97%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
4.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 4 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:084% → 4%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+9
4.5%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Caleb Snead for 9 yds to the Camp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Zach Roderick, broken up by Fitz WattleySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+16
4.4%
Brad Dennis punt for 42 yds , Marcus Outlow returns for 16 yds to the Camp 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19TD5 plays · 46 yds · 2:5198% → 100%
Q4 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) Myles Prosser kickoff for 63 yds , Jaquan Brooks return for 25 yds to the Camp 27 (Colin Gary PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 20MISSED FG12 plays · 62 yds · 5:180% → 0%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
0.4%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Caleb Snead for 9 yds to the Camp 36Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+36
0.4%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Caleb Snead for 36 yds to the CCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+27
0.2%
Colin Gary 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Sterling Johnson TEAM return for no gain to the CCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21Uncategorized4 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:03
Torrance Marable run for 30 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q3 10:38
Torrance Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q3 3:25
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-12.2