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BOIS

Boise State 56 at Troy 20

TROY
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:40 · Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the BoiSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+0.5Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−22.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:53: Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +3.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:36: Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 53 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:35: Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:10: Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 10:56: B.J. Smith run for 1 yd B.J. Smith fumbled, forced by Kekoa Nawahine, recovered by BoiSt Tyler Horton , return for 55 yds, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:28TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53TROY 4th & 23 at TROY 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:40TROY 4th & 1 at BOIS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10TROY 4th & 22 at TROY 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:14TROY 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:10BOIS 4th & 1 at TROY 46, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:35TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 26, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 20 at BOIS 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:24TROY 4th & 3 at BOIS 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:47BOIS 4th & 8 at TROY 27, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:00TROY 4th & 8 at BOIS 43, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:53BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:53TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:36BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:35BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:10BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:13BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:10TROY Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:24TROY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:04BOIS Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3223% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
22.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
22.9%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+5
22.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+7
23.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds , Avery Williams returns for 7 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:2677% → 77%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
23.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+16
23.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 16 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+9
23.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 9 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
23.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 7 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+8
23.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
23.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 20 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
23.7%
Traveon Samuel run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-8
23.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TroySimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 16
OWN 20
-10
23.5%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass complete to Willis, Damion for 35 yards to the BSU45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Willis, Damion) 10 yards to the TROY10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 26
OWN 10
+3
23.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Richard Hallman for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 23
OWN 13
0
23.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 35 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Troy 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Tyler MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:2825% → 28%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
24.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+15
24.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 15 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
24.9%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
24.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 5 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
28.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
27.1%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
27.3%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
27.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+4
27.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 37 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 4 yds to the Troy 24 TROY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:1328% → 29%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
27.5%
Barker, Kaleb sideline pass incomplete to Whittemore, L., PENALTY BSU pass interference 7 yards to the TROY44, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
29.1%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Desmond Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 14
50
0
28.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 14
50
+13
28.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
29.4%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:5872% → 76%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
27.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
27.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 7 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-10
27.0%
MATTISON, Alex rush up middle for 6 yards to the TROY40 (Tyus, Melvin), PENALTY BSU holding (QUEVEDO, Eric) 10 yards to the BSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+3
28.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 3 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+53
24.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 53 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:3625% → 26%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
25.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
25.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 5 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.5%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Tony Lashley return for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:2676% → 81%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
23.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 15 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
23.4%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
23.5%
Brett Rypien run for 8 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+7
23.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 7 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.5%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
20.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
20.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
20.3%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 21 Avery Williams fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Avery WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:4981% → 89%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+46
19.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 46 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
18.5%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+10
18.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 10 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+16
18.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 16 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
18.4%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
18.4%
Robert Mahone run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
13.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 11 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
13.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-8
13.9%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-7
13.1%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Kayode Rufai and Jabari Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+42
13.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 33 , Avery Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:0489% → 88%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
10.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
10.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Robert MahoneSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+8
10.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
10.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Brett RypienSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+2
10.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+54
12.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 54 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14MISSED FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 2:135% → 3%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
4.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+6
4.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+3
3.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
5.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 30 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
5.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
5.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+4
5.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Richard Hallman for 4 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 5
OWN 0
0
2.3%
Barker, Kaleb rush right for 3 yards to the BSU27 (WEAVER, Curtis;MAEVA, Tyson), PENALTY TROY holding off-setting, PENALTY BSU face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+15
2.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to B.J. Smith for 15 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
3.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Avery WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+32
3.3%
Tyler Sumpter 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Tyler MurraySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
6.8%
Brett Rypien run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
6.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
6.3%
Brett Rypien run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
6.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
7.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:286% → 2%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
5.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+12
5.2%
Kaleb Barker run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
5.8%
Barker, Kaleb middle pass complete to Letton, Sam for 12 yards to the BSU36 (HORTON, Tyler), PENALTY TROY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+7
5.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+55
2.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd B.J. Smith fumbled, forced by Kekoa Nawahine, recovered by BoiSt Tyler Horton , return for 55 yds, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:462% → 4%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
2.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+19
2.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 19 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
2.2%
Jamarius Henderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+3
2.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+13
2.2%
Kaleb Barker run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
2.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+25
2.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 25 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
2.4%
B.J. Smith run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
2.3%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
2.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
2.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.1%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
2.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
2.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 11 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
2.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
2.0%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
2.1%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
2.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
1.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
1.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
1.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
1.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 36 yds, downed at the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0999% → 99%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
0.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Eric Quevedo) to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
0.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-11
0.7%
Khalil Shakir run for a loss of 11 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 28
0
0.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Robert MahoneSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 28
0
0.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:401% → 2%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
1.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 20 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
1.1%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
1.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for no gain to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+4
1.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+33
2.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 33 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3798% → 99%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
1.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+14
1.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 14 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
1.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-5
1.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Garrett Larson) to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+5
1.5%
Robert Mahone run for 5 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
1.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
1.4%
Haden Hoggarth 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23FUMBLE TD
1 play · -16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
0.3%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 16 yards Kaleb Barker fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Tyler Horton , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
0.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
0.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.3%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
0.2%
Jamarius Henderson run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
0.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
-9
0.1%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
0.1%
Chase Cord run for 44 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26FUMBLE
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 11 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+16
0.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 16 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for no gain to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
0.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 13 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.1%
Traveon Samuel run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
0.1%
Traveon Samuel run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+7
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 15 B.J. Smith fumbled, forced by Tyreque Jones, recovered by BoiSt Jalen WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:10
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q2 12:35
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q1 0:36
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 53 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com