Try the model
SELA

SE Louisiana 31 at UL Monroe 34

ULM
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2018 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreSELA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Ivy Wall punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense−5.4Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:56: Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 59 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK) — SELA win probability +7.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:56: Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 79 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:55: Jonathan Tatum 34 yd FG GOOD — SELA win probability +2.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 8:23: Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 34 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK) — SELA win probability +36.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Caleb Evans run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Evans Run For Two-point Conversion) — ULM win probability +61.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SELA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 3 at SELA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:02ULM 4th & 5 at SELA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−3.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:02SELA 4th & 10 at SELA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:03SELA 4th & 23 at SELA 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:52ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 48, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02SELA 4th & 6 at ULM 26, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00SELA 4th & 1 at SELA 29, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:01ULM 4th & 9 at SELA 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:01SELA 4th & 7 at SELA 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:21ULM 4th & 11 at SELA 11, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−10.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55SELA 4th & 7 at ULM 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:17ULM 4th & 7 at SELA 17, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−15.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:23ULM 4th & 6 at SELA 28, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−14.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:13SELA 4th & 18 at SELA 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−5.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SELA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:41ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:16SELA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:40SELA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:21ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:56SELA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:56ULM Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:23SELA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:37ULM Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.8%−3.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 5:1992% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 6 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+22
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 22 yds to the SELa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the SELa 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 10 yds to the SELa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
92.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SELa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+7
92.4%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the SELa 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
92.4%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the SELa 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+5
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 5 yds to the SELa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+3
92.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the SELa 22 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SELa 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
92.4%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the SELa 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+10
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 10 yds to the SELa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
92.4%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive offside (Brayleon Thorns) to the SELa 4Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
92.4%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the SELa 2Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.8%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 2TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:258% → 11%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
91.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Lorenzo Nunez for 18 yds to the SELa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
91.4%
Devonte Williams run for 9 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
91.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
91.2%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 1 yd to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
91.1%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Devonte Williams for 7 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
91.1%
Devonte Williams run for 4 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.0%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+26
91.0%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 26 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.0%
Lorenzo Nunez run for no gain to the LaMon 9Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+42
89.7%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Ferlando Jordan return for 42 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 4TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:1011% → 13%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
88.9%
Darren Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+5
88.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 5 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
86.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Lorenzo Nunez for 15 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5FG
19 plays · 88 yds · 5:3887% → 86%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
87.3%
Derrick Gore run for 11 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
87.3%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
87.3%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+1
87.6%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
87.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
87.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 8 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
87.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 9 yds to the SELa 47Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+12
88.0%
Derrick Gore run for 12 yds to the SELa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
88.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 3 yds to the SELa 32Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
88.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SELa 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+12
85.7%
Derrick Gore run for 12 yds to the SELa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Brayleon ThornsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
86.2%
Derrick Gore run for 9 yds to the SELa 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+8
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 8 yds to the SELa 8 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
86.3%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the SELa 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Isaac BerglundSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
86.2%
Craig Ford 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.6%
Lorenzo Nunez sacked by Sam Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the SELa 20Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
85.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 5 yds to the SELa 25Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Ivy Wall punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:0285% → 87%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
84.9%
Marcus Green run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
85.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+22
84.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 22 yds to the SELa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
85.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SELa 46Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+8
85.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 8 yds to the SELa 38Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+21
85.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 6 yds to the SELa 32 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Lewis) to the SELa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
86.3%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the SELa 12Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
86.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+6
85.9%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the SELa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
86.3%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the SELa 2Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
86.3%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SELa 3Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 8TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2515% → 22%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
85.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the SELa 29Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+12
85.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 12 yds to the SELa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
78.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 59 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
80.6%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-5
81.4%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Green, Marcus, PENALTY ULM ineligible downfield on pass (Fiailoa, T.J.) 5 yards to the ULM38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
80.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
80.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 6 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
81.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 14 yds to the SELa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
81.8%
Kayin White run for 6 yds to the SELa 31Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-5
82.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SELa 36Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-1
81.8%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the SELa 32 Caleb Evans fumbled, recovered by SELa Tre' SpannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:3525% → 24%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-9
74.9%
Juwan Petit-Frere run for 6 yds to the SELa 38 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (Devonte Williams) to the SELa 23Similar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 19
OWN 23
0
75.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Darren Johnson, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 19
OWN 23
0
76.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete, broken up by Mason Husmann SE LOUISIANA Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 19
OWN 23
-4
76.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Darren Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the SELa 19Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 23
OWN 19
0
75.9%
Ivy Wall punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
74.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
74.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Darius Rodrigue for 4 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
74.9%
Jared Porter punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 0:4927% → 31%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
73.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 6 yds to the SELa 26Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
72.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 9 yds to the SELa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
72.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 10 yds to the SELa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
71.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 11 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to CJ Turner, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
70.4%
Chason Virgil run for 6 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+8
68.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 8 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
68.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
68.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Austin Mitchell for 4 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
68.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Austin Mitchell, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
69.4%
Jonathan Tatum 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
71.2%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.2%
Darren Johnson run for 6 yds to the SELa 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
70.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to CJ Turner, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
71.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Lorenzo Nunez for 3 yds to the SELa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
72.4%
Ivy Wall punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
81.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 79 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 16INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
81.1%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the SELa 13Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
81.3%
Devonte Williams run for 9 yds to the SELa 22Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+4
80.7%
Austin Mitchell run for 4 yds to the SELa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
81.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jake Ingraffia for 11 yds to the SELa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
80.5%
Austin Mitchell run for 4 yds to the SELa 41Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+50
79.3%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Corey Straughter return for 50 yds to the ULMONROE 9 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1483% → 80%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
83.1%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the SELa 19Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
83.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 1 yard to the SELa 20Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
82.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Sloan Spiller, broken up by Zeke WalkerSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
80.2%
Craig Ford 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
79.1%
Chason Virgil sacked by David Griffith for a loss of 3 yards to the SELa 17Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+14
79.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jake Ingraffia for 14 yds to the SELa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.6%
Darren Johnson run for 2 yds to the SELa 33Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
78.5%
Chason Virgil run for 6 yds to the SELa 39Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
77.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Darren JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-5
79.4%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, delay of game (Ivy Wall) to the SELa 34Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
80.4%
Ivy Wall punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 4:5978% → 80%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
78.1%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Green, Marcus (Benjamin, K.), PENALTY SLU pass interference (Benjamin, K.) 9 yards to the ULM36, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
79.1%
Derrick Gore run for 12 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
80.6%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the SELa 49Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
80.9%
Kayin White run for 8 yds to the SELa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 6 yds to the SELa 35Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+14
81.7%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the SELa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
81.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 4 yds to the SELa 17Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
81.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the SELa 14Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
80.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the SELa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
81.7%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the SELa 6Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q3 6:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
79.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Trace Ellison) to the SELa 11Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
80.6%
Craig Ford 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 65
OWN 0
0
80.3%
Meeks, Jacob kickoff 62 yards to the SLU3, Petit-Frere, J. return to the SLU22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ULM offside off-setting, PENALTY SLU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 20FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2625% → 28%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
74.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Bransen Schwebel for 18 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
72.9%
Devonte Williams run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
72.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to CJ TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
74.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Devonte WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
72.0%
Jonathan Tatum 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3876% → 75%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
76.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
77.9%
Kayin White run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
78.0%
Kayin White run for 4 yds to the SELa 47Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
78.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+16
77.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 16 yds to the SELa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
79.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 5 yds to the SELa 26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
79.4%
Kayin White run for 6 yds to the SELa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
79.4%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the SELa 14Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-3
79.4%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the SELa 17Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
78.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. Turner, broken up by Isaac BerglundSimilar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
75.2%
Craig Ford 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 22TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5428% → 70%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
72.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 23 yds to the SELa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
68.6%
Devonte Williams run for 1 yd to the SELa 44Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+11
68.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 11 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
67.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jake Ingraffia for 9 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
66.9%
Darren Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to CJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
29.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 34 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
45.0%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
48.3%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
48.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 9 yds to the SELa 45Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
50.3%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the SELa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
50.2%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the SELa 42Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
50.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 5 yds to the SELa 37Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
49.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 5 yds to the SELa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
52.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Ferlando JordanSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
52.4%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the SELa 28Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
49.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Derrick GoreSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 6
OPP 28
0
46.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. Turner, broken up by Matthew WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:3979% → 83%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
21.0%
Devonte Williams run for 1 yd to the SELa 29Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
21.2%
Chason Virgil run for 4 yds to the SELa 33Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-5
22.5%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Kyle Strickland) to the SELa 28Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-8
23.3%
Chason Virgil sacked by Sam Miller for a loss of 8 yards to the SELa 20Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
16.6%
Ivy Wall punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:2725% → 94%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
25.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds to the SELa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
28.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 4 yds to the SELa 44Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+12
29.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 12 yds to the SELa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
32.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 8 yds to the SELa 24Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+13
32.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 13 yds to the SELa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.7%
Caleb Evans run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Evans Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.6%
Brown, Xavier pass attempt failed, PENALTY SLU pass interference (Lynch, D.) 2 yards to the SLU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 26MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 0:3721% → 28%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.7%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, delay of game (Chason Virgil) to the SELa 20Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
79.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to CJ Turner for 10 yds to the SELa 30Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
75.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Devonte Williams for 8 yds to the SELa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
75.1%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Kyle Strickland) to the SELa 33Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+24
78.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Nih-Jer Jackson for 24 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
71.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 27 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
64.1%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+37
72.4%
Jonathan Tatum 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cal Kee III Kenderick Marbles return for no gain to the LaMon 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:37
Caleb Evans run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Evans Run For Two-point Conversion)
+61
TD · Q4 8:23
Chason Virgil pass complete to Juwan Petit-Frere for 34 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Tatum KICK)
-36.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+27.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com