View as
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Miguel Mendez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryheem Malone at the LaLaf 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:40: Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 18 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +3.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:05: Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:28: Geremy Hickbottom run for 7 yds for a TD (Garrett Urban KICK) — UL win probability +4.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:11: Andre Nunez run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:38: Levi Lewis pass complete to Matt Barnes for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GRAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00UL 4th & 20 at UL 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
- Q1 11:57GRAM 4th & 5 at UL 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call18.3%92% to makePunt17.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:24GRAM 4th & 17 at GRAM 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q1 4:17GRAM 4th & 10 at GRAM 17, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00GRAM 4th & 8 at GRAM 25, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.4%−0.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q2 8:28GRAM 4th & 7 at UL 7, down 25Close callWent for it · 11.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.9%−0.128% to convertField goal11.0%91% to makePunt8.2%−2.8average punt
- Q2 4:55UL 4th & 2 at GRAM 35, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.3%57% to convertField goal88.1%−1.245% to makePunt87.5%−1.8average punt
- Q2 4:49GRAM 4th & 10 at GRAM 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q3 14:53GRAM 4th & 9 at GRAM 44, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q3 6:52GRAM 4th & 22 at UL 24, down 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.27% to convertField goalTheir call1.5%68% to makePunt1.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00GRAM 4th & 10 at UL 40, down 39Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%30% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:09UL 4th & 2 at UL 43, up 32Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GRAM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:24UL Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.5%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:22UL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:40UL Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:05UL Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:28GRAM Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.0%97% to makeGo for two10.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:11UL Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:38UL Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:55UL Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:41GRAM Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
85.5%
Andre Nunez sacked by De'Arius Christmas for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 2FG5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0715% → 16%
ULDrive 3TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:2685% → 85%
Q1 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+19
84.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 19 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+14
84.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 14 yds to the Gramb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-5
84.7%
Mitchell,Elijah rush for 29 yards to the GRAM1 (Grant,Chris), PENALTY LA illegal shift 5 yards to the GRAM35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 4PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Geremy Hickbottom pass complete to Lyndemian Brooks for no gain to the Gramb 25Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.3%
Hickbottom,Ger. rush for 10 yards to the GRAM35 (Manac,Chauncey;Gardner,Ferrod), PENALTY GRAM holding (Manning,Che') 10 yards to the GRAM15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-2
84.3%
Geremy Hickbottom pass complete to Kevin Dominique for a loss of 2 yards to the Gramb 13Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+5
84.4%
LOUISIANA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Gramb 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0284% → 86%
GRAMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
84.9%
Aldon Clark pass incomplete to Darrell Clark, broken up by Jacques BoudreauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD6 plays · 38 yds · 1:4586% → 89%
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
89.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 18 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2711% → 11%
Q1 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
88.7%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Darrell Clark for 2 yds to the Gramb 28Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-3
88.7%
Aldon Clark sacked by Bennie Higgins for a loss of 3 yards to the Gramb 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Miguel Mendez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryheem Malone at the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4990% → 91%
GRAMDrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:319% → 10%
ULDrive 11DOWNS11 plays · 41 yds · 3:3391% → 91%
Q2 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
91.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
91.3%
Nunez,Andre pass incomplete to Barnes,Keenan, PENALTY GRAM pass interference (Crumitie,Damien) 15 yards to the LA45, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
91.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jamal Bell for 9 yds Jamal Bell fumbled, forced by Kenan Fontenot,Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
91.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 7 yds to the Gramb 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD13 plays · 74 yds · 3:4392% → 97%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
91.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 9 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+9
91.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 9 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
92.0%
Andre Nunez sacked by La'Allan Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+6
91.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 6 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
92.0%
Nunez,Andre pass complete to Malone,Ryheem for 6 yards to the GRAM33 (Martin,Devanir), PENALTY GRAM offside defense (Varner,Brandon) 5 yards to the GRAM34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+8
92.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds to the Gramb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
92.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 7 yds to the Gramb 19Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
91.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 5 yds to the Gramb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
92.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 10 yds to the Gramb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 21 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
96.3%
Geremy Hickbottom pass complete to Kobe' Ross for 20 yds to the Gramb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD10 plays · 98 yds · 4:0397% → 99%
Q3 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+13
97.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Matt Barnes for 13 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
97.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Damien CrumitieSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Matt Barnes for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 17MISSED FG9 plays · 28 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.0%
Geremy Hickbottom pass complete to Devante Davis for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
98.9%
Geremy Hickbottom pass complete to Kobe' Ross for 9 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
99.0%
Geremy Hickbottom pass complete to Lyndemian Brooks for 24 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
98.8%
Hickbottom,Ger. pass incomplete to Ross,Kobe' (Miller,Terik), PENALTY GRAM ineligible downfield on pass (Angoi,Juac) 5 yards to the LA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-7
98.9%
Geremy Hickbottom sacked by Jacques Boudreaux for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
99.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jordan Wright for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
99.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 4 yds to the Gramb 36 LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Keenan Barnes) to the Gramb 46Similar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 16
OPP 46
+3
99.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jordan Wright for 3 yds to the Gramb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 58 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.7%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Calief Samon for 15 yds to the Gramb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Darrell Clark for 2 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
99.7%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Justin Richard for 9 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-2
99.8%
Aldon Clark sacked by Andre Riley and Bennie Higgins for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20INT7 plays · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
99.9%
Ashton Johnson run for 2 yds to the Gramb 36 for a 1ST down GRAMBLING Penalty, personal foul (Wesley Green) to the Gramb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+15
99.9%
Lewis,Levi pass complete to Hughes,Pat for 43 yards to the GRAM6, out-of-bounds (Martin,Devanir), PENALTY LA illegal touching off-setting, PENALTY GRAM personal foul 15 yards to the GRAM34, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Devanir Martin return for no gain to the Gramb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 21TD16 plays · 78 yds · 7:390% → 0%
Q4 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
Clark,Aldon pass incomplete to Lindsey,Devohn (Dorsey,Daijuane), PENALTY LA pass interference (Dorsey,Daijuane) 15 yards to the GRAM44, 1ST DOWN GRAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Calief Samon for 1 yd to the Gramb 45Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Justin Richard run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48 Justin Richard fumbled, forced by Alonzo Brown, recovered by GrambSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Kobe' Ross for 6 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Kalif Jackson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Aldon Clark pass complete to LaDarrian Ellis-Jones for 8 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
LaDarrian Ellis-Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrett Urban KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+7
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ashton Johnson for 7 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
100.0%
Charles Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the Gramb 34 Charles Wright fumbled, recovered by Gramb Charles WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Andre Nunez run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 8:28
Geremy Hickbottom run for 7 yds for a TD (Garrett Urban KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q1 1:40
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 18 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+3.6