2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:51 · Matthew Trickett punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the MiaOh 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:57: Gus Ragland run for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 14:57: Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 33 — KENT win probability +2.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:11: Kenny Young run for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:46: Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:24: Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 8KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 8 at KENT 32, tiedClose callWent for it · 77.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.5%−<0.134% to convertField goal77.5%51% to makePunt77.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:28KENT 4th & 2 at M-OH 42, tiedClose callPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.4%57% to convertField goal23.3%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call23.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:26M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q1 8:41KENT 4th & 4 at M-OH 42, tiedClose callPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.4%48% to convertField goal24.2%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call24.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:22KENT 4th & 5 at M-OH 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snapGo for it22.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call22.9%64% to makePunt20.4%−2.5average punt
- Q2 8:01KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it14.9%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q2 6:55KENT 4th & 6 at M-OH 49, down 14Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:08M-OH 4th & 1 at KENT 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.9%71% to convertField goal82.4%−1.584% to makePunt78.0%−5.9average punt
- Q2 0:51KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 45, down 21Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it5.2%−1.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q3 6:03M-OH 4th & 4 at KENT 24, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%−<0.168% to makePunt98.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:03KENT 4th & 27 at KENT 8, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 0:00M-OH 4th & 4 at KENT 21, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.174% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 30, down 31Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:03M-OH 4th & 1 at KENT 34, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%71% to convertField goal99.6%−0.247% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:03M-OH 4th & 11 at KENT 32, up 31Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.127% to convertField goal99.8%51% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:31KENT 4th & 22 at KENT 45, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:14M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 20, up 31Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 14:57M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:11M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:46M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:24M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:36KENT Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1DOWNS11 plays · 47 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
74.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 12 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
74.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 6 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+4
74.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 4 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 0:2426% → 26%
M-OHDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
73.9%
Gus Ragland sacked by KJ Sherald for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT13 plays · 40 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
73.3%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 7 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 25
-1
73.1%
Woody Barrett sacked by Doug Costin for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 24Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 5
OPP 0
0
72.7%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to CARRIGAN, MIKE (RAYMOND, Zed), PENALTY MIAMI offside defense off-setting, PENALTY KENT pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
72.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 6 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
72.8%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Zedrick RaymondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD12 plays · 98 yds · 4:4972% → 77%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
72.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 8 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
72.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 27 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
73.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 3 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
73.5%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete, PENALTY KENT offside defense (WEST, ZAYIN) 3 yards to the KENT3, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6MISSED FG8 plays · 49 yds · 2:3525% → 26%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
73.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD12 plays · 74 yds · 4:1176% → 82%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
75.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
50
+8
76.8%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 47 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Gus Ragland , return for 8 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+8
76.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 8 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
76.9%
THOMAS, Maurice rush over left end for 5 yards to the KENT30 (JONES, JIM;PARKER, JAMAL), PENALTY MIAMI illegal formation 5 yards to the KENT40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
76.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+3
75.6%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete, PENALTY KENT pass interference (SHERALD, Keith) 3 yards to the KENT30, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
76.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 27 yds to the KntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
81.7%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 5 yds to the KntSt 10Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-4
81.4%
Woody Barrett sacked by Dean Lemon for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 6Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 9
OWN 6
0
82.0%
Matthew Trickett punt for 42 yds , Jack Sorenson returns for no gain to the KntSt 47 Jack Sorenson fumbled, recovered by KntSt Cepeda PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 6:55
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
80.1%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Zedrick RaymondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD12 plays · 82 yds · 4:2281% → 94%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
81.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 21 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+10
82.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
82.6%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to ROBINSON, Dom (MARSHALL, D.), PENALTY KENT pass interference (MARSHALL, D.) 10 yards to the KENT2, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 0:558% → 7%
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.0%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 13 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
91.5%
Woody Barrett sacked by Andrew Sharp for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
92.6%
Matthew Trickett punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:007% → 7%
M-OHDrive 14TD3 plays · 54 yds · 1:0495% → 99%
KENTDrive 15INT8 plays · 57 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
98.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 29 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
98.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 12 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
98.6%
BARRETT, WOODY rush up middle for 1 yard to the MIAMI22 (KIMPLER, Ben), PENALTY MIAMI 12 men on the field (CALCAGNO, P.) 5 yards to the MIAMI18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
98.4%
Woody Barrett pass intercepted Sterling Weatherford return for no gain to the MiaOh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FG10 plays · 70 yds · 5:2299% → 100%
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+27
99.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 27 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT7 plays · -17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.3%
Woody Barrett sacked by Ben Kimpler for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 20Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
99.3%
BARRETT, WOODY pass complete to CARRIGAN, MIKE for 10 yards to the KENT32 (THOMPSON, D.), PENALTY KENT holding (VIAUD, JAMIL) 10 yards to the KENT12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
99.3%
Matthew Trickett punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the KntSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18MISSED FG7 plays · 19 yds · 3:55100% → 100%
Q3 3:55
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
99.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 7 yds to the KntSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
M-OHDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to MAYOCK, Luke, PENALTY KENT pass interference (ROBINSON, JR.) 15 yards to the MIAMI40, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
99.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 15 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
99.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 8 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT13 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
99.9%
RANKIN, JUSTIN rush up middle for 13 yards to the KENT22 (KOIKOI, Allan;REID, Myles), PENALTY KENT holding (VIAUD, JAMIL) 4 yards to the KENT5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+2
99.9%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the KntSt 7 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+29
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 29 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
99.9%
BARRETT, WOODY pass complete to DIXON, ANTWAN for 20 yards to the MIAMI38 (BARATTI, Bart), PENALTY KENT ineligible downfield on pass (MONNIN, NATHAN) 5 yards to the KENT37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 16 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
99.9%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete, PENALTY KENT holding (VAN HOEF, CHASE) 10 yards to the KENT47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 20
OWN 47
-2
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 45Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 22
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Matthew Trickett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23TD5 plays · 47 yds · 0:310% → 1%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 15 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+14
99.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Nigel Adams) to the MiaOh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (6 Yards) to the MiaOh 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:46
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 8:11
Kenny Young run for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+5
TD · Q3 12:24
Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+3.9