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CMU

Central Michigan 13 at Toledo 51

TOL
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2018 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:25: Art Thompkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +0.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:01: Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 14:57: Jameson Vest 33 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +1.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:37: Bryant Koback run for 8 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:54: George Pearson pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Taafe return for 21 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:08CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:25CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:27CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:57TOL 4th & 4 at CMU 16, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:57CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:08TOL 4th & 18 at CMU 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:54CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 26, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:37CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:39CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:08CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:58TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 40, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:54CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:44TOL 4th & 11 at CMU 41, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:37TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:40CMU 4th & 23 at CMU 22, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:19CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 27, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:38CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 28, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:11TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 48, up 44
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:40CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 7, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:25TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:01TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:37TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:54TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:19TOL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:46TOL Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:49TOL Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:43CMU Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.6%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
90.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 12 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
90.6%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
90.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
90.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+38
90.1%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for 38 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
90.0%
Austin Hergott pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
90.1%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+1
90.1%
Austin Hergott run for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 14
OWN 45
-3
90.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Cody Thompson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0190% → 90%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
89.6%
Bryant Koback run for 17 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
89.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
89.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 7 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
89.8%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+4
89.8%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
89.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
89.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+24
89.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 24 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (1 Yards) to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.7%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
89.8%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+32
89.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Cody Thompson returns for 32 yds to the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:2490% → 91%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
89.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 19 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
89.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+14
89.8%
Bryant Koback run for 14 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
90.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+8
90.6%
Romello Ross run for 8 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
90.6%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+16
90.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down , Diontae Johnson returns for 16 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
91.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 8 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
91.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for no gain to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+16
91.1%
Bryant Koback run for 16 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
91.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+7
91.2%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+11
91.1%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Trevor Apsey return for 11 yds to the CMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
90.4%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
90.4%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
90.5%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+20
90.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds , Cody Thompson returns for 20 yds to the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3991% → 92%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
91.2%
Art Thompkins run for 14 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
91.2%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
91.2%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
91.1%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
92.1%
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
92.0%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
92.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds , Cody Thompson returns for 9 yds to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
92.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.8%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
92.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 10 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
92.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Yazeed Atariwa) to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
92.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+2
92.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
92.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 13
OPP 38
-5
92.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
92.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
92.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-2
92.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
92.3%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+16
92.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds , Cody Thompson returns for 16 yds to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:3593% → 96%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
93.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 14 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
93.4%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
93.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.4%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
93.4%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.9%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
95.1%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
95.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 29 yds , Cody Thompson returns for no gain to the CMich 42 Cody Thompson fumbled, forced by Alonzo McCoy, recovered by CMich Jack SheldonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.0%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
95.0%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-7
95.0%
Austin Hergott sacked by Josh Teachey for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
95.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
96.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
96.2%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
96.3%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
96.3%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the CMich 44 Art Thompkins fumbled, forced by Mike Danna, recovered by CMich Alex BrionesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
95.3%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+3
95.4%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
95.4%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
95.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cody Thompson at the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
96.4%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
96.5%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.5%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Mike DannaSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+10
96.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds , Darius Bracy returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard line CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19END OF HALF
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:334% → 4%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
96.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 12 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 6 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
95.8%
Austin Hergott pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 4 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
95.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-5
96.2%
Austin Hergott sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+21
99.0%
George Pearson pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Taafe return for 21 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
George Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cody Thompson at the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.3%
Eli Peters run for no gain to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
99.3%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Robi Stuart) to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, downed at the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
16 plays · 45 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.5%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+10
99.4%
George Pearson run for 10 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.4%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Romello RossSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+22
99.4%
George Pearson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 22 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.4%
PEARSON, George pass incomplete to COLE, Cameron (HOLLMAN, Kadar), QB hurry by HOWARD, Reggie, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HOLLMAN, Kadar) 15 yards to the TOLEDO48, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.4%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
99.4%
Romello Ross run for 14 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.3%
George Pearson pass complete to Devon Spalding for 9 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
99.3%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Joe Komel) to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-10
99.3%
PEARSON, George rush for 2 yards to the TOLEDO23, out-of-bounds (SKIPPER, Tuzar), PENALTY CMU holding (ROSS, Romello) 10 yards to the TOLEDO35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 25
OPP 35
-12
99.4%
George Pearson sacked by Richard Olekanma for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 37
OPP 47
0
99.4%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Ben MaleszykSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 37
OPP 47
-5
99.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Derek Smith) to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 42
OWN 48
0
99.4%
George Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 42
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cody Thompson at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
99.7%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+2
99.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+3
99.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Art Thompkins for 3 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+4
99.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 35 , Darius Bracy returns for 4 yds to the CMich 26 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Randall Harris) to the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.5%
George Pearson pass complete to Devon Spalding for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
99.5%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Devon Spalding, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-7
99.5%
George Pearson sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 18
OWN 27
-5
99.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Rolliann Sturkey) to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Cody Thompson at the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+44
99.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
George Pearson pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.8%
George Pearson pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 5 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
99.8%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-9
99.8%
George Pearson sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cody Thompson at the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.8%
SEYMOUR, Shakif rush for 4 yards to the CMU46 (DANNA, Mike;STANITZEK, M.), PENALTY CMU substitution infraction 5 yards to the CMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+4
99.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+14
99.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 14 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+12
99.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Sean Bunting run for 5 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
George Pearson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
99.9%
Sean Bunting run for 11 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
99.9%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-3
99.9%
George Pearson sacked by Lucas Maynard for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 50 yds for a 1ST down , Cody Thompson returns for no gain to the Toled 28 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-15
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brock Ruble) to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+41
99.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Rolliann Sturkey) to the CMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
100.0%
Amir Siddiq run for 1 yd to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
100.0%
Amir Siddiq run for 2 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
100.0%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
100.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cody Thompson at the CMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 8 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 8 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.9%
JONES, Ronnie rush for loss of 2 yards to the CMU32 (21), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (DOERGER, Luke) 10 yards to the CMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+53
99.9%
Cross Wilkinson run for a loss of 7 yards Cross Wilkinson fumbled, recovered by CMich Mike Danna , return for 53 yds (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 33TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
100.0%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 45 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 34TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Amir Siddiq run for 3 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
100.0%
George Pearson pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 8 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
100.0%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
George Pearson pass complete to Jack Combs for 7 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+9
100.0%
George Pearson pass complete to Tony Poljan for 9 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
PEARSON, George pass incomplete to COSSOU, Keegan, PENALTY TOLEDO offside defense (CRAFT, Evander) 5 yards to the TOLEDO26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
George Pearson pass complete to Jack Combs for 8 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
George Pearson pass incomplete to Bernhard RaimannSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
100.0%
George Pearson pass complete to Tony Poljan for 6 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
George Pearson pass complete to Jack Combs for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 35END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:37
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q3 14:54
George Pearson pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Taafe return for 21 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q1 6:01
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com