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BUF

Buffalo 44 at Bowling Green 14

BGSU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2018 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:55 · Matt Naranjo punt for 45 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for no gain to the Buff 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−14.9Pregame prior−25.7Score differential−6.4Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:55: Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 14:40: Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds for a TD Scott Miller fumbled, forced by Khalil Hodge, recovered by Buff Brandon Williams , return for 69 yds — BUF win probability +4.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:55: Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson pass to K.J. Osborn for Two-Point Conversion) — BUF win probability +7.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:33: Kevin Marks run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:36BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:22BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:27BUF 4th & 4 at BGSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:40BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:55BGSU 4th & 20 at BGSU 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 5, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−1.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 29, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:07BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 49, down 27
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:33BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 31, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:59BUF 4th & 4 at BGSU 4, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:41BUF 4th & 3 at BGSU 43, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:33BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:55BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:27BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:55BUF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:55BUF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:33BUF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:41BGSU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.2%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
16.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
16.2%
Jarret Doege sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
16.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 37 yds, downed at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
16.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
16.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for no gain to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
16.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
16.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
17.5%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
17.5%
Grant Loy run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
17.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
17.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:2082% → 83%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
18.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
17.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
17.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
17.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+40
17.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 40 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3818% → 21%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Justin Sawmiller for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
17.8%
Rico Frye run for 22 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
18.1%
Rico Frye run for no gain to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+38
18.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 38 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
18.2%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
18.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Joey BanksSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2880% → 80%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.1%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
20.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 14 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
19.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
19.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 6 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+6
19.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
19.6%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
19.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
19.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 5 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+37
19.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 37 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:4720% → 19%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.4%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
20.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 17 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
21.1%
Grant Loy run for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
21.5%
Grant Loy run for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
22.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Bryson DenleySimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+69
18.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds for a TD Scott Miller fumbled, forced by Khalil Hodge, recovered by Buff Brandon Williams , return for 69 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
18.1%
Rico Frye run for no gain to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
17.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Rico FryeSimilar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
17.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0882% → 90%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
17.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 10 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
17.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
17.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Marcus MiltonSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
17.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
17.3%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+47
17.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 47 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
9.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson pass to K.J. Osborn for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-15
12.4%
DOEGE, Jarret pass complete to MORRIS, Quintin for 5 yards to the BGSU35 (WILLIAMS, Brand), PENALTY BGSU pass interference (MILLER, Scott) 15 yards to the BGSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
12.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
12.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Justin SawmillerSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
12.0%
Matt Naranjo punt for 45 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for no gain to the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
19 plays · 60 yds · 7:4090% → 95%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
9.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 9 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
9.5%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
9.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
9.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
9.7%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
9.6%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
9.3%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
8.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
8.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+4
8.6%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
8.9%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
8.6%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
8.6%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
8.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
9.4%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.6%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
2.6%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+11
2.5%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted Tatum Slack return for 11 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
4.9%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Clint Stephens return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.0%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
6.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
6.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
6.0%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
6.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
6.6%
Evan Finegan punt for 33 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
4.1%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
4.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
4.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
4.0%
Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 7:2496% → 99%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
3.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+11
3.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
3.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
3.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 16 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
3.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 12 yds to the BOWLGREEN 41 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
3.2%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+1
3.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+7
3.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 7 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+5
3.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (Nico Lautanen) to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
3.2%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
3.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
0.8%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
1.8%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
1.8%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-10
1.8%
Jarret Doege sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 10 yards to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
1.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 7:5799% → 100%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
0.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+8
0.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 8 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+16
0.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 16 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
0.7%
Theo Anderson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+6
0.7%
Theo Anderson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
0.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+13
0.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
0.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+6
0.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
0.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+12
0.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
0.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
0.3%
Alex McNulty 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.2%
Grant Loy run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
0.2%
Grant Loy pass complete to Scott Miller for 63 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21Uncategorized
14 plays · 46 yds · 7:20100% → 100%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 8 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.2%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
0.2%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+4
0.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+10
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
0.1%
MYERS, Matt rush for 14 yards to the BGSU0, clock 01:21, PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the BGSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 20
OPP 24
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 22
OPP 26
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:55
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson pass to K.J. Osborn for Two-Point Conversion)
-7.7
FUMBLE · Q2 14:40
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds for a TD Scott Miller fumbled, forced by Khalil Hodge, recovered by Buff Brandon Williams , return for 69 yds
-4
TD · Q1 6:55
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com