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BALL

Ball State 21 at Miami (OH) 42

M-OH
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2018 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:54 · John Paddock sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense+31.6Score differential+23.3Garbage-time factor+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:45: Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 22 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +12.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:27: Alonzo Smith run for 56 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:05: Gus Ragland pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 4 yds for a TD Samuel Sloman kickoff TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 23 (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:02: Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:33: Alonzo Smith run for 47 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:46M-OH 4th & 7 at BALL 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:11M-OH 4th & 11 at BALL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 16 at BALL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:42M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 16, down 7
    Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:27M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:52BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:52BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−3.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:33BALL 4th & 7 at M-OH 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:27BALL 4th & 6 at M-OH 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:38M-OH 4th & 3 at BALL 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:54BALL 4th & 9 at M-OH 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:11BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:14BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:45BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:27M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:05M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:02M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:33M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:27M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
79.7%
Drew Plitt run for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
79.7%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
79.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 22 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
79.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
79.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-2
79.5%
Gus Ragland sacked by Ray Wilborn for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
79.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:1021% → 24%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
79.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-5
79.0%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 14Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+16
79.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 16 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
78.9%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
78.8%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
78.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+18
78.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 18 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
78.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Malik Dunner for 16 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
76.1%
Justin Hall run for 22 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
76.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 13 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
76.8%
Kenny Young run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
77.1%
RAGLAND, Gus pass complete to YOUNG, Kenny for 16 yards to the BALL24 (UZODINMA, A.;COSBY, Bryce), PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (BECKER, Nate) 15 yards to the MIAMI45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+4
76.8%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 21
OWN 49
+4
76.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+6
76.7%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
76.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
74.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 10Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
74.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
74.5%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Zedrick Raymond return for no gain to the MiaOh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:3175% → 77%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
74.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Quentin Hardy for 25 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
75.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 17 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
75.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.2%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1424% → 30%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 15 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
75.6%
Malik Dunner run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
75.3%
Drew Plitt run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
75.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+21
75.0%
Corey Lacanaria pass complete to Drew Plitt for 21 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.7%
Drew Plitt run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:1471% → 70%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+46
71.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 46 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-11
73.0%
Gus Ragland sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 11 yards to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 44
+6
71.1%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
-8
70.8%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 23
OPP 46
+7
70.5%
Kenny Young run for 7 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
69.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
68.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+16
68.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 16 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.2%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
67.6%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
67.8%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
50
-4
67.3%
Drew Plitt sacked by Bart Baratti for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-1
68.4%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
68.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Kyle SchrankSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
69.3%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
66.0%
Kenny Young run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-2
66.4%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
65.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for no gain to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
65.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:5639% → 51%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
61.0%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
61.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
61.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
60.7%
Malik Dunner run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-3
60.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Malik Dunner for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 7
OPP 0
0
61.2%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to MILLER, Riley, QB hurry by COSTIN, Doug, PENALTY BALL holding off-setting, PENALTY MIAMI holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
49.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 22 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:1851% → 62%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
51.2%
Maurice Thomas run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
52.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Alonzo Smith, broken up by Shannon HallSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
51.9%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+56
62.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 56 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:3539% → 39%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
61.5%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the BalSt 2Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
60.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
60.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
61.2%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.0%
Gus Ragland run for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
62.5%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+9
62.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Quentin Hardy for 9 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.1%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted Bryce Cosby return for no gain to the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1643% → 42%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
57.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
57.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-8
57.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Pasquale Calcagno for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 9Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 12
OWN 9
0
58.3%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:4161% → 72%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
60.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 29 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
62.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
62.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 7 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
59.9%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 4 yds for a TD Samuel Sloman kickoff TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 23 (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
67.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:5872% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
72.3%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+11
70.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+12
72.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 12 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
73.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 9 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+15
73.7%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to SORENSON, Jack, PENALTY BALL pass interference (UZODINMA, A.) 15 yards to the BALL15, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
73.7%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+10
73.7%
Gus Ragland run for 10 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.7%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.1%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19INT
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0021% → 25%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.9%
Drew Plitt run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
77.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 20 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
76.4%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
75.9%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
76.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
75.1%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Mike Brown return for 17 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 3:0881% → 92%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
81.2%
Maurice Thomas run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
82.0%
Maurice Thomas run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
81.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
82.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
82.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+47
91.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 47 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.9%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Will JonesSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
89.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 8 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.2%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
87.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
87.9%
Malik Dunner run for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+3
88.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 3 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
88.5%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaOh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 7:1893% → 99%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
92.8%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
92.8%
Maurice Thomas run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+6
93.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
93.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
93.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+21
93.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 21 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
94.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
94.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
94.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+33
94.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 33 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
94.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+25
98.7%
Malik Dunner run for 25 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.7%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
98.7%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+1
98.7%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
98.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2199% → 100%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
99.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
99.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+4
99.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
99.4%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+15
99.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Dunner for 15 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Dunner for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Hassan Littles for 6 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
99.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Hassan Littles for 12 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
99.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Will Jones, broken up by Brad KoenigSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-3
99.3%
John Paddock sacked by Doug Costin for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 9
OPP 35
-7
99.4%
John Paddock sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:45
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 22 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 0:05
Gus Ragland pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 4 yds for a TD Samuel Sloman kickoff TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 23 (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q2 3:27
Alonzo Smith run for 56 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com