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BGSU

Bowling Green 24 at Central Michigan 13

CMU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:48 · Matt Naranjo run for 5 yds to the CMich 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense−35.9Pregame prior+0.7Score differential−14.1Garbage-time factor−11.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: Austin Hergott pass complete to Julian Hicks for 30 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice PAT MISSED) — CMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:10: Andrew Clair run for 29 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:21: Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:15: Nate Needham 20 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 6:54: Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard Romello Ross fumbled, forced by Karl Brooks, recovered by BwGrn Kyle Junior , return for 1 yd (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +25.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02BGSU 4th & 24 at BGSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29BGSU 4th & 24 at BGSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 16 at CMU 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%
    56% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:12CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:17BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:13CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:36BGSU 4th & 8 at CMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:36CMU 4th & 1 at BGSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.6%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:21CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:15BGSU 4th & 3 at CMU 3, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−14.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:25CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−2.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 1 at CMU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−4.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−18.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:54CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:48BGSU 4th & 6 at CMU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:08BGSU 4th & 21 at CMU 42, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%
    30% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:29CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:34CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:10BGSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:21BGSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
64.4%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
64.4%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
64.4%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
64.4%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for no gain to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+2
64.4%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+6
64.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 41 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 6 yds to the BwGrn 23 Marcus Milton fumbled, forced by Luke Idoni,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
64.1%
Rico Frye run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-2
64.2%
Scott Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-9
64.3%
Jarret Doege sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 19
OWN 14
-5
64.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 24
OWN 9
+1
64.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 49 , Jonathan Ward returns for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0665% → 67%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
64.6%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
64.7%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
64.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
64.7%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for 18 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
64.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal use of hands (11 Yards) to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
67.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
66.3%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
66.1%
Grant Loy run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-14
66.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 19
OWN 21
-5
66.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 24
OWN 16
0
66.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds, downed at the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
67.7%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
67.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
67.3%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+2
66.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds , Scott Miller returns for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
16 plays · 45 yds · 3:5233% → 31%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.2%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
67.0%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
67.2%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
68.1%
Rico Frye run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
67.4%
Grant Loy run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
66.9%
Grant Loy run for 8 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+5
66.7%
Grant Loy run for 5 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
67.1%
Bryson Denley run for 8 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
66.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Grant Loy, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
67.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 6 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
66.4%
Rico Frye run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 30
0
67.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Andrew ClairSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 30
0
68.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Gage KreskiSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 30
0
69.1%
Jarret Doege punt for 29 yds, downed at the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
69.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+4
69.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 10
0
68.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the CMich 10Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
68.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 59 yds, downed at the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
69.2%
Rico Frye run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
68.4%
Rico Frye run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
68.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-4
68.6%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-2
69.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
70.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 25 yds, downed at the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.8%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
71.7%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Cameron Cole for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-8
71.5%
Austin Hergott sacked by Brandon Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
70.1%
TEAM punt blocked by Charles Lamar blocked by Charles LamarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4832% → 29%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
68.2%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-1
68.2%
Grant Loy run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-5
69.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
69.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Jordan Wayne-PratherSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
71.3%
Nate Needham 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Sean BuntingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:0273% → 84%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
72.7%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
72.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
73.6%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
72.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
74.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
74.1%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Damon Terry for 4 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
73.8%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Romello RossSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+4
72.9%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
74.4%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
74.3%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+11
73.5%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Drayton Law for 11 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
83.9%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Julian Hicks for 30 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
80.9%
Bryson Denley run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5020% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 14 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
79.4%
Rico Frye run for no gain to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
79.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
78.7%
Rico Frye run for no gain to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+24
79.5%
Dorian Hendrix run for 24 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
64.6%
Andrew Clair run for 29 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:4934% → 48%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
66.4%
Rico Frye run for 3 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
64.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+29
66.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 29 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
64.6%
Scott Miller run for 3 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
57.2%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
59.3%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
56.4%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Romello RossSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
55.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds , Scott Miller returns for no gain to the BwGrn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:4646% → 55%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
54.4%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+13
53.4%
Andrew Clair run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
51.9%
Jarret Doege run for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+27
51.5%
Rico Frye run for 27 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
49.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 14 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Brian SandersSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Brian SandersSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
51.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds to the CMich 6 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
53.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (Sean Bunting) to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
45.5%
Nate Needham 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 3:5052% → 41%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
51.5%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 2 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-2
51.5%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+12
48.4%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Devon Spalding for 12 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
53.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
53.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
52.7%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for 2 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-10
45.2%
HERGOTT, Austin pass complete to SULLIVAN, J. for 10 yards to the BGSU31 (BOZEMAN, Jamari), PENALTY CMU holding (GWILLY, K.) 10 yards to the CMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
41.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 79 yds · 0:5761% → 64%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
39.3%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
39.9%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+7
40.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
37.9%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+4
37.9%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+11
37.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 11 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
34.7%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
34.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for 6 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
34.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 8 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
33.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 25 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
31.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Quintin Morris) to the CMich 23Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+6
32.3%
Grant Loy run for 6 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
31.8%
Rico Frye run for 5 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+3
33.5%
Rico Frye run for 3 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
35.7%
Jarret Doege run for no gain to the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:4037% → 11%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-7
36.5%
Austin Hergott run for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 2Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 17
OWN 2
+1
11.0%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard Romello Ross fumbled, forced by Karl Brooks, recovered by BwGrn Kyle Junior , return for 1 yd (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
13.6%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
14.2%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
13.3%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
12.1%
Austin Hergott pass incomplete to Devon Spalding, broken up by Marcus MiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1291% → 95%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
8.6%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
8.7%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
9.0%
Andrew Clair run for 10 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
8.6%
Rico Frye run for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
6.8%
Scott Miller run for 3 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
6.7%
Grant Loy run for no gain to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+5
5.4%
Matt Naranjo run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.5%
Austin Hergott pass complete to Julian Hicks for 10 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.7%
Austin Hergott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
3.6%
Austin Hergott pass intercepted Marcus Milton return for 15 yds to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23INT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:0795% → 97%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-3
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 18
OPP 39
-3
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 21
OPP 42
+33
3.3%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted Brandon Brown return for 33 yds to the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 6:54
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard Romello Ross fumbled, forced by Karl Brooks, recovered by BwGrn Kyle Junior , return for 1 yd (Nate Needham KICK)
-25.5
TD · Q3 12:10
Andrew Clair run for 29 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q3 10:21
Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com