2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Nick Gasser punt for 42 yds, downed at the EMich 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- PUNT · Q2 2:16: Jake Julien punt for 39 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for 70 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +8.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 4:01: Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for no gain to the EMich 11 — EMU win probability +5.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:42: Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 2 yds to the Akron 48 — EMU win probability +3.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:41: Alex Ramart pass intercepted for a TD Maxx Crosby return for 2 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +16.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:22: Breck Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +9.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 11AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q1 8:37EMU 4th & 1 at AKR 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.0%71% to convertField goal76.8%−0.256% to makePunt76.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:59AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it20.7%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q1 2:45EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 43, up 7Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it78.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:00AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%average punt
- Q2 12:15EMU 4th & 3 at AKR 17, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snapGo for it78.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call78.2%−0.380% to makePunt75.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 12:15AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it20.3%−1.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%average punt
- Q2 6:32EMU 4th & 7 at AKR 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snapGo for it78.5%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call78.8%91% to makePunt75.2%−3.6average punt
- Q2 6:25AKR 4th & 7 at EMU 46, down 10Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.7%37% to convertField goal18.8%−0.923% to makePuntTheir call19.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:16EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it79.6%−0.931% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.5%average punt
- Q2 0:15EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it68.0%−2.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.4%average punt
- Q3 14:51AKR 4th & 9 at EMU 24, down 3Close callWent for it · 28.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.2%−0.831% to convertField goal28.0%68% to makePunt21.8%−6.2average punt
- Q3 13:28EMU 4th & 11 at AKR 32, up 3Close callWent for it · 72.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.6%−0.727% to convertField goal72.3%51% to makePunt71.5%−0.9average punt
- Q3 10:07AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it25.4%−2.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q3 8:32EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 48, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 73.4% before the snapGo for it73.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%−2.3average punt
- Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 6 at AKR 46, up 3Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it72.1%40% to convertField goal69.1%−3.023% to makePuntTheir call71.7%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:15AKR 4th & 1 at EMU 49, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.2%−1.5average punt
- Q4 10:38EMU 4th & 3 at AKR 44, up 17Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%52% to convertField goal95.5%−1.127% to makePuntTheir call96.0%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:23AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q4 3:32EMU 4th & 23 at AKR 23, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.67% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%70% to makePunt96.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 3:32AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 30, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 5:15EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:41EMU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:22EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
78.7%
Alex Ramart pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 3 yds to the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD18 plays · 83 yds · 7:5778% → 79%
Q1 13:12
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+19
78.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 19 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-3
78.4%
Shaq Vann run for 12 yds to the Akron 27 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Shaq Vann) to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+3
78.4%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 3 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+9
78.4%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Shaq Vann for 9 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
77.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for no gain to the Akron 23Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+8
77.0%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 8 yds to the Akron 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
77.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 10 yds to the Akron 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 1:1622% → 21%
EMUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5878% → 79%
Q1 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 0
0
77.8%
PENALTY EMU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY AKRON unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+3
79.6%
Alex Ramart pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 3 yds to the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6MISSED FG9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2879% → 79%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
79.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 19 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
79.5%
PARKER, Willie rush for 3 yards to the AKRON32 (DAVIS, Jamal), PENALTY EMU illegal formation 5 yards to the AKRON40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
79.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 4 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+4
79.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 4 yds to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-6
79.4%
Alex Ramart sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8FG10 plays · 54 yds · 4:2379% → 81%
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+8
79.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Bryce Kemp for 8 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+19
79.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 19 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:25
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+36
82.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 46 yds for a touchback AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1382% → 74%
EMUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:0176% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13FUMBLE4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 14:51
4TH & 9
OPP 24
-11
71.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the EMich 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by EMich Freddie McGee IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 13:28
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+8
73.7%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Line Latu for 8 yds to the Akron 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 10:07
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+11
73.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 41 yds , Blake Banham returns for 11 yds to the EMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17INT8 plays · 64 yds · 0:4629% → 35%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
71.2%
RAMART, Alex pass incomplete to SMITH, Kwadarrius, PENALTY EMU holding (McGILL, Kevin) 10 yards to the AKRON11, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
70.7%
RAMART, Alex pass intercepted by PICKETT, Jaylen at the AKRON16, PICKETT, Jaylen return to the AKRON0, clock 06:12, PENALTY EMU offside (KELLY, Desmond) 5 yards to the AKRON19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
70.4%
Alex Ramart pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 19 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Alex Ramart pass intercepted Kevin McGill return for no gain to the EMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 43 yds · 4:0171% → 71%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.1%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for no gain to the EMich 11Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+16
69.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 16 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-15
70.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Blake Banham, broken up by Brian Bell for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
50
+2
74.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 2 yds to the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19INT TD3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1029% → 12%
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+2
88.3%
Alex Ramart pass intercepted for a TD Maxx Crosby return for 2 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
87.0%
Alex Ramart pass intercepted Vince Calhoun return for 39 yds to the Akron 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21TD1 play · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 24 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
95.3%
Alex Ramart pass complete to Andre Williams for 4 yds to the EMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.7%
Isaac Stiebeling pass complete to Breck Turner for 3 yds to the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:23
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+44
96.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 44 yds , Blake Banham returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25FG8 plays · 45 yds · 3:4897% → 99%
Q4 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-20
97.2%
Isaac Stiebeling run for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 8 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jake Donnellon) to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:41
Alex Ramart pass intercepted for a TD Maxx Crosby return for 2 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q4 13:22
Breck Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
+9.5
PUNT · Q2 2:16
Jake Julien punt for 39 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for 70 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
-8.3