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BALL

Ball State 13 at Toledo 45

TOL
2018 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2018 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:31 · Drew Plitt run for 13 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense+27.9Score differential+20.1Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:25: Art Thompkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:13: Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 18 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +5.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:18: Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:12: Malik Dunner run for 11 yds for a TD Timeout BALL ST, clock 13:12 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BALL win probability +3.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:50: Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 23 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:45TOL 4th & 5 at BALL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25BALL 4th & 10 at TOL 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:00TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12BALL 4th & 1 at TOL 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:42BALL 4th & 2 at TOL 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:12BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:20BALL 4th & 24 at TOL 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:18TOL 4th & 3 at BALL 12, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:31BALL 4th & 6 at TOL 24, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:20BALL 4th & 16 at TOL 43, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:05BALL 4th & 3 at TOL 18, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:06TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:25TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:13BALL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:18TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:12BALL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:50TOL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:23TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:2614% → 15%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
86.2%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
86.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 14 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
86.0%
BALL ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+17
85.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 17 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+3
85.7%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
85.7%
Justin Hall run for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
85.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-2
85.5%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 31 Tye Evans fumbled, recovered by Toled Willie Ross Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1486% → 86%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
85.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 12 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
85.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
85.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for no gain to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+12
85.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
85.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
86.2%
Bryant Koback run for 19 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4914% → 14%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.8%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
85.7%
Corey Lacanaria pass complete to Drew Plitt for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
85.8%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:3286% → 88%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+57
85.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 57 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
86.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 19 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.5%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -25 yds · 0:1913% → 11%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.9%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.9%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.8%
Drew Plitt sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 28 yards Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by Toled Tuzar Skipper , return for 0 yards for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:1311% → 10%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.8%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (DT Stephens) to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+21
88.9%
Will Jones run for 21 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
88.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
88.9%
Will Jones run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
50
+2
88.6%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
89.0%
Malik Dunner run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+9
89.4%
Drew Plitt run for 9 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 5
OPP 43
-5
89.3%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
89.6%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2090% → 90%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
89.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Art Thompkins for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
90.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
90.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
90.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4310% → 10%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
90.0%
Malik Dunner run for 8 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
89.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Trevor HohltSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
89.9%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
90.2%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:5091% → 92%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
91.2%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
91.4%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
91.5%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Brandon Martin return for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:529% → 14%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.7%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+12
91.0%
Justin Hall run for 12 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
90.9%
BALL ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+21
91.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 21 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
90.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 19 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
85.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 18 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2388% → 87%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
87.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-5
87.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
87.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 4 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+1
87.3%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Antonio Phillips return for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3614% → 15%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 32 lat. to Malik Dunner for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+8
85.5%
Justin Hall run for 8 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
85.5%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Zachary Ford return for 13 yds to the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:1688% → 95%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
87.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+7
87.8%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.8%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
88.3%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Antonio Phillips) to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
88.5%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+13
88.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
88.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 17 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
88.5%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
88.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+13
88.3%
Art Thompkins run for 13 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.6%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:027% → 7%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
92.7%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
93.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
92.8%
Will Jones run for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 24 Will Jones fumbled, recovered by BalSt Drew PlittSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+4
93.5%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 42 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0495% → 96%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds Diontae Johnson fumbled, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
95.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
95.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
95.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
95.4%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Eli Peters pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Miller return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:026% → 6%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
94.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 16 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
93.8%
Malik Dunner run for 6 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
93.6%
Will Jones run for 6 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
94.0%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
93.6%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+2
93.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2296% → 96%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
96.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
96.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
96.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5896% → 97%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
96.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Cameron Bell) to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+1
96.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+17
96.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 17 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.4%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+12
96.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
96.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jordan HendySimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
96.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 8 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+8
96.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.8%
Desmond Phillips pass intercepted, touchback. Bryce Cosby return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
16 plays · 41 yds · 6:194% → 3%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 6 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
95.8%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
96.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
96.1%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
96.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
95.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 20 yds to the TOLEDO 35 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.2%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
96.3%
Will Jones run for 11 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
96.2%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 25
OPP 49
-4
96.6%
Will Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 29
OWN 47
+13
96.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Malik Dunner for 13 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+15
96.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
96.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Keyan Williams for 3 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-8
96.2%
Drew Plitt sacked by Richard Olekanma for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 15
OPP 30
-9
96.8%
Drew Plitt sacked by Terrance Taylor and Reggie Howard for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 24
OPP 39
0
97.1%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 35 yds, downed at the Toled 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:5697% → 99%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
97.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 5Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
97.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+17
97.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 17 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
98.1%
Art Thompkins run for 19 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.3%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+12
98.4%
Art Thompkins run for 12 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
98.5%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
98.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-10
98.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Harris) to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 18
OPP 27
0
98.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 18
OPP 27
+15
98.8%
Art Thompkins run for 15 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
99.0%
Jameson Vest 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:572% → 5%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
98.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 47 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
98.2%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+1
98.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 1 yd to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+13
98.6%
Drew Plitt run for 13 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.5%
Malik Dunner run for 11 yds for a TD Timeout BALL ST, clock 13:12 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0498% → 100%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
50
+3
97.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+13
97.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 13 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.9%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+8
97.9%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 23 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
99.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 15 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 14 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.5%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
99.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 8 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-6
99.6%
Drew Plitt sacked by Lucas Maynard for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 43 Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by BalSt Andrew Poenitsch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 16
OPP 43
+18
99.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 18 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.6%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Keyan Williams) to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Nolan GivanSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+12
99.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-4
99.9%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Amechi Uzodinma II return for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
99.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds Justin Hall fumbled, forced by Nate Givhan, recovered by Toled Devonte' DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:33100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Richard Olekanma for 8 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Rhett Blackman for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 3
50
+4
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-5
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+41
100.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 41 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+17
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 17 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+18
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Desmond Bernard return for 18 yds to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28Uncategorized
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:18
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 14:13
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 18 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q4 13:12
Malik Dunner run for 11 yds for a TD Timeout BALL ST, clock 13:12 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com