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CMU

Central Michigan 10 at Akron 17

AKR
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:42 · Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds , Andre Williams returns for 10 yds to the Akron 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+14.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:05: Kato Nelson pass complete to Newman Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +3.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:01: Van Edwards Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:40: Tony Poljan run for 1 yd for a TD AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +12.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:12: Brandon Childress pass incomplete to Tony Poljan — CMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27: Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Xavier Crawford — AKR win probability +9.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
  1. Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:36AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:42CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:11CMU 4th & 12 at AKR 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:48AKR 4th & 11 at CMU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:48CMU 4th & 25 at CMU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:30AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:01CMU 4th & 30 at CMU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:21CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 15, down 10
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:41CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:20CMU 4th & 9 at AKR 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:04AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:02CMU 4th & 4 at AKR 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%−0.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−11.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:31AKR 4th & 11 at CMU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−7.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:31CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 23 at AKR 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−4.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:30CMU 4th & 8 at AKR 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:17AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:32CMU 4th & 1 at AKR 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−2.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−11.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:08AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:57CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−1.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:57CMU 4th & 17 at AKR 42, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    30% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−1.2
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:53AKR 4th & 11 at CMU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:05AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:01AKR Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:40CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
65.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 12 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.2%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-6
65.2%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
65.2%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+3
65.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 51 yds , Jamil Sabbagh returns for 3 yds to the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
65.1%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
65.1%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
65.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+9
65.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 48 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for 9 yds to the Akron 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
65.0%
Kwadarrius Smith run for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
64.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
64.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
64.8%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+10
64.7%
Tony Poljan run for 10 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
64.6%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+6
64.8%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
64.7%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+10
65.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds , Andre Williams returns for 10 yds to the Akron 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.6%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
64.6%
Deltron Sands run for 11 yds to the Akron 40 Deltron Sands fumbled, forced by Alonzo McCoy, recovered by CMich Trevor ApseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
63.8%
Tony Poljan sacked by Jamal Davis II and Ulysees Gilbert III for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 45Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
64.1%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Jamil SabbaghSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+3
64.4%
Tony Poljan run for 3 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
64.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 30 yds, downed at the Akron 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:3664% → 69%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+40
64.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 40 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
65.2%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
65.3%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
65.3%
Keyondre White run for 2 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+30
65.0%
Kato Nelson run for 30 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
65.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Newman Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.8%
Romello Ross run for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
67.0%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Jamil Sabbagh for 6 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
67.2%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
67.3%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Joel Wilson for 5 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-5
66.9%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 36 Tony Poljan fumbled, forced by Brennan Williams, recovered by Akron John LakoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9FG
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1270% → 69%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
69.5%
Kwadarrius Smith run for 11 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
69.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr.Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
69.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
69.2%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
69.0%
Nick Gasser 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
69.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
69.2%
Tony Poljan pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
68.6%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 14
OWN 37
-2
69.5%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 16
OWN 35
-9
70.1%
Tony Poljan sacked by Davon'te Jest for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 25
OWN 26
+6
70.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for 6 yds to the Akron 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr., broken up by Sean AdesanyaSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
70.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
69.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Troy BrownSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
68.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 59 yds, downed at the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
70.8%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
71.0%
Romello Ross run for 7 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
70.6%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+14
70.8%
Tony Poljan run for 14 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
70.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Cameron Cole for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+11
70.0%
Tony Poljan run for 11 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
69.4%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Devon Spalding for 13 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
68.8%
POLJAN, Tony pass incomplete to CHILDRESS, B., PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the CMU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 20
OWN 46
-11
69.9%
Tony Poljan sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 31
OWN 35
+1
70.7%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 30
OWN 36
0
71.1%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 30
OWN 36
+16
71.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for 16 yds to the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
73.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 1
50
+3
73.6%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
73.7%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to MORRIS, Jonah, PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the CMU32, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
73.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+16
73.1%
Kato Nelson run for 16 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
73.8%
Keyondre White run for 3 yds to the CMich 7 Keyondre White fumbled, forced by Malik Fountain, recovered by CMich Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
74.1%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
74.2%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+4
74.9%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Romello Ross for 4 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
75.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds, downed at the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:5876% → 86%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
76.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 6 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+14
76.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 14 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
76.7%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to SMITH, Kwad., PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the CMU20, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1316% → 15%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
83.6%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Cameron Cole for 10 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
82.9%
Tony Poljan sacked by Jamal Davis II for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+3
84.9%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Devon Spalding for 3 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
85.0%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
85.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 37 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for no gain to the Akron 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
85.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Akron 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Jamil SabbaghSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds, downed at the Akron 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
85.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brian Reinke for 21 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-16
86.4%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 16 yards to the Akron 11 Kato Nelson fumbled, forced by Mike Danna, recovered by CMich Xavier CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1817% → 17%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
83.1%
Tony Poljan run for no gain to the Akron 11Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
83.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the Akron 10Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
84.4%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
82.3%
Ryan Tice 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
83.3%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
84.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 8Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
84.2%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+4
83.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Akron 12Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+5
83.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 51 yds , Jamil Sabbagh returns for 5 yds to the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:5917% → 32%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.0%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
82.5%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+19
83.0%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 19 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
81.4%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+22
81.5%
Tony Poljan pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
81.0%
Romello Ross run for 9 yds to the Akron 4Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+1
81.0%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the Akron 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.0%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the Akron 1Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Tony Poljan run for 1 yd for a TD AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
77.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 4 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
78.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
78.6%
Mykel Traylor-Bennett run for 1 yd to the Akron 43 Mykel Traylor-Bennett fumbled, forced by Da'Quaun Jamison, recovered by CMich Xavier CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:1029% → 27%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
70.7%
Brandon Childress pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
71.0%
Tony Poljan run for 11 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
69.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 21 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
68.6%
Devon Spalding pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
68.6%
Tony Poljan run for 6 yds to the Akron 5Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
70.4%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the Akron 5Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
73.1%
Ryan Tice 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3178% → 79%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+56
78.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 56 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
81.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
81.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
79.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
79.2%
Nick Gasser 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
75.3%
GWILLY, K. rush for 2 yards to the CMU27, PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the CMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
75.5%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
75.8%
Tony Poljan run for 10 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete, broken up by Jamal Davis IISimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 35 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for no gain to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3782% → 82%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 11 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
82.5%
DAVIS, Alvin rush for no gain to the CMU49 (DANNA, Mike), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+7
81.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-10
83.5%
Kato Nelson sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 20%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
76.5%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 6 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
75.9%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+1
76.9%
Tony Poljan run for 1 yd to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
78.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
79.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
84.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+9
84.6%
Kato Nelson run for 9 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
85.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 24Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Devonni ReedSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
83.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 15 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
85.9%
NELSON, Kato pass complete to WILLIAMS, Andre for 1 yard to the AKRON40 (FOUNTAIN, Malik), PENALTY CMU offside 5 yards to the AKRON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
86.6%
Kwadarrius Smith run for 1 yd to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
85.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Devonni ReedSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
84.5%
Nick Gasser punt for 33 yds, downed at the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30DOWNS
15 plays · 72 yds · 5:1218% → 18%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
81.7%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 14 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
80.4%
Tony Poljan run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
79.9%
Romello Ross run for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+11
78.9%
Tony Poljan run for 11 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
77.7%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Drayton Law for 6 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
77.1%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Julian Hicks, broken up by John LakoSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
78.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Romello Ross for 18 yds to the Akron 20 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-15 Yards) to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
77.3%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
75.9%
Romello Ross run for 7 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+11
75.3%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Cameron Cole for 11 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
75.3%
Romello Ross run for 8 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-1
75.3%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 7Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
77.4%
Tony Poljan run for 2 yds to the Akron 5Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-1
82.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1991% → 93%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
91.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
91.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 7Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+6
92.2%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 13Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
92.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 52 yds, downed at the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 32DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
89.6%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
89.3%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Romello Ross for no gain to the CMich 37 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Drayton Law, broken up by Denzel ButlerSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+14
91.5%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 14 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
87.5%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete CENTRAL MICH Penalty, intentional grounding (-7 Yards) to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
90.3%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Romello RossSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
91.0%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4996% → 96%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
95.6%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 24 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
96.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-2
96.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 6
OPP 38
-5
96.2%
AKRON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Nick Gasser punt for 42 yds, downed at the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:40
Tony Poljan run for 1 yd for a TD AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Ryan Tice KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q2 1:01
Van Edwards Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
+9.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Xavier Crawford
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com