Try the model
TOL

Toledo 51 at Western Michigan 24

WMU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2018 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2WMU 55.3%Jameson Vest 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 7 · Q2 12:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:08 · Jameson Vest 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−5.4Score differential−2.7Pregame prior+11.6Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:24: Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 62 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +14.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 14:07: Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 34 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +11.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:46: Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +14.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:25: Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +8.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:43: Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:25WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:39WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 6 at WMU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:08TOL 4th & 5 at WMU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:44WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.1%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:04WMU 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:08TOL 4th & 6 at WMU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−6.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:46WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:43TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 28, up 20
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:35WMU 4th & 2 at TOL 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:13WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:07TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:27WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:34TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:48WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:39TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:07TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:46TOL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:25TOL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:43WMU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:13TOL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
66.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the WMich 35 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.5%
Jon Wassink run for 9 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
66.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
66.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
66.3%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
66.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the WMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
66.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 12Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
66.3%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+8
66.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 8 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
66.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 23 yds, downed at the WMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:1834% → 37%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
65.6%
Art Thompkins run for 21 yds to the WMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
65.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 10 yds to the WMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
65.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
63.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 10 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4664% → 67%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
64.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+42
64.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 42 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
66.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 25 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0934% → 40%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
65.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+32
65.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 32 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.9%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
64.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 16 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
64.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
64.8%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
64.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 11 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
64.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
61.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
61.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
61.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
62.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-1
62.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
61.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4941% → 45%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
58.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+24
58.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 24 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
57.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
57.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
57.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Drew Rosi, broken up by Justin TranquillSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+8
58.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
56.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 16 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
56.9%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the WMich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
56.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+5
57.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
55.3%
Jameson Vest 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 8:0454% → 52%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.2%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
54.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 4 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
54.3%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
52.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
53.6%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
53.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
53.9%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
54.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
54.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Drake Harris for 12 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
55.4%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+20
55.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 20 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
55.4%
Davon Tucker run for 4 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
54.5%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Richard Olekanma and Tyler Taafe for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
51.5%
Gavin Peddie 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:5652% → 58%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
48.3%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
47.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+28
48.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 28 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
46.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 20 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
46.1%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-5
46.1%
GUADAGNI, M. rush for 5 yards to the WMU1 (MOMENT, CORVIN), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the WMU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
46.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
46.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
42.2%
Jameson Vest 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 0:4442% → 58%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
42.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+9
42.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 9 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
42.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 9 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+62
57.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 62 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:2448% → 56%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
52.4%
Bryant Koback run for 20 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
50.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for no gain to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
51.3%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody (CURTIS, ANTON), PENALTY WMU roughing passer 15 yards to the WMU28, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
43.8%
Jameson Vest 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5354% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
46.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
45.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
34.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 34 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
39.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 11 yds to the WMich 37 LeVante Bellamy fumbled, recovered by Toled Jamal HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:0366% → 81%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
33.9%
Art Thompkins run for 18 yds to the WMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
33.7%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the WMich 18Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
19.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
22.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
22.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-8
22.7%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Nate Childress for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
22.5%
Nick Mihalic punt, downed at the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3185% → 94%
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
14.7%
Bryant Koback run for 14 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
14.3%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea (DOWELS, JUWAN), PENALTY WMU pass interference (DOWELS, JUWAN) 15 yards to the WMU10, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
14.3%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
14.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Juwan DowelsSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.9%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:428% → 19%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
8.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 6 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
8.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Chase Brown for 4 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
8.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 21 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
8.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+11
8.7%
ELEBY, KALEB pass incomplete to HALL, JAYLEN (HOLLMAN, Kadar), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HOLLMAN, Kadar) 11 yards to the TOLEDO36, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
9.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Drake Harris for 11 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
9.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+22
9.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Chase Brown for 22 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
10.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
6.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+13
6.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
6.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Drew Rosi) to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
6.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Diontae Johnson) to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+11
6.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
6.2%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
6.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
6.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds, downed at the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:387% → 6%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
7.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Drake Harris for 19 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
7.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
7.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 6 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-7
7.7%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Tuzar Skipper and Reggie Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
6.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
4.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-7
4.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Toled 30 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (Cody Thompson) to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
4.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Drew Rosi, broken up by Najee ClaytonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+5
4.2%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+58
4.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 48 yds, downed at the WESTMICH 27 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, HL (10 Yards) to the WMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
4.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+31
4.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 31 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
5.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
5.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
5.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+1
5.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:2297% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
2.8%
Bryant Koback run for 40 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
2.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+14
2.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 14 yds to the WMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
2.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Drew Rosi) to the WMich 10Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
2.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
2.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
0.4%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+7
0.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 7 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-7
0.4%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 3 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
0.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
0.2%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+48
0.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the WESTMICH 9 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, HL (4 Yards) to the WMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
0.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+5
0.2%
ELEBY, KALEB pass intercepted by PETERS, Eli at the WMU20, PETERS, Eli return to the WMU20, PENALTY TOLEDO offside 5 yards to the WMU15, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the WMich 15Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-7
0.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jayden Reed) to the WMich 8Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 17
OWN 8
0
0.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+13
0.2%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
0.1%
Ronnie Jones run for 8 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
0.1%
Ronnie Jones run for 5 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
0.1%
Ronnie Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
0.1%
Ronnie Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jayden Reed for 62 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q3 12:46
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q3 4:43
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com