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BUF

Buffalo 31 at Toledo 17

TOL
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1TOL 71.8%Adam Mitcheson 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q3 10:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:47 · Adam Mitcheson 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+6.2Pregame prior+3.5Score differential+1.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:37: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +5.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:22: Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 80 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +10.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:39: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +25.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:55: Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +23.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:49: Jaret Patterson run for 25 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +9.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:03BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:07TOL 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:46BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:16BUF 4th & 1 at TOL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−1.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:32TOL 4th & 10 at BUF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:38TOL 4th & 4 at BUF 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33BUF 4th & 5 at TOL 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:32BUF 4th & 17 at TOL 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47BUF 4th & 17 at TOL 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:25BUF 4th & 14 at TOL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:10TOL 4th & 24 at TOL 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−5.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00BUF 4th & 15 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−5.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−14.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:55TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:46BUF 4th & 2 at TOL 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−1.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−8.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:34TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:44TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:54TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:37BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:22TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:39BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:55BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:49BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
58.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 19 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
58.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
58.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-2
58.3%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
58.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass intercepted Aapri Washington return for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
58.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
58.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
58.4%
Evan Finegan punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
58.7%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 7
50
-2
58.7%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+2
58.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 7
50
0
58.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4INT
10 plays · 68 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
58.4%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
58.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 10 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
58.3%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
58.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+14
58.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 14 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
57.9%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+15
57.8%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, K.J., PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (ANDERSON, Tycen) 15 yards to the TOLEDO33, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
57.7%
Kevin Marks run for 14 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
57.7%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
57.7%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Jamal Hines return for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:1858% → 62%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
58.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
58.3%
GUADAGNI, M. pass complete to ROSI, Drew for 6 yards to the TOLEDO29, out-of-bounds (PATTERSON, Jame), PENALTY UB offside defense (RIGGINS, Taylor) 5 yards to the TOLEDO28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
58.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+70
62.1%
Bryant Koback run for 70 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
62.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
61.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
61.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
62.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+2
62.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 44 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
63.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Shakif Seymour, broken up by James PattersonSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
63.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
62.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
62.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:3938% → 37%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
62.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 14 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
62.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 9 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
62.4%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-1
63.1%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0666% → 64%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
65.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
65.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-7
65.2%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Myles Nicholas for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
63.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:0435% → 43%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
64.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 13 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
64.3%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+44
64.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 44 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
62.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-3
62.5%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Willie Ross Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+34
57.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
60.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 17 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
61.8%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
61.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
60.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
59.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, downed at the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
58.5%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Willie Ross Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 12
OWN 4
0
58.6%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Justin Clark return for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5262% → 64%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
62.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (DeShondrick Foxworth) to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
63.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
63.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
62.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
63.5%
Jameson Vest 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:0538% → 37%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kevin Marks, broken up by Nate ChildressSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
64.4%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to RUSHING, George, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (JOHNSON,Dyontae) 15 yards to the UB43, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
62.2%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+11
61.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 11 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
61.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Josh Teachey) to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
60.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
60.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 5 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
63.2%
Adam Mitcheson 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
73.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 80 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16INT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0026% → 29%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
72.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Jamal HinesSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
73.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+15
74.4%
FINEGAN, Evan punt 40 yards to the TOLEDO20, downed, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing the kicker (BOLDEN, Daniel) 15 yards to the TOLEDO45, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
71.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+11
71.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
70.7%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for 23 yds to the Toled 40 Kahlil Robinson fumbled, forced by Tyree Jackson, recovered by Buff Jacob GallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5328% → 25%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-7
72.2%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Reggie Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
74.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
75.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
74.9%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:0727% → 28%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
72.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-3
71.3%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
72.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
71.4%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, K.J., PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (HOWARD, Reggie) 15 yards to the TOLEDO46, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
70.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Taafe) to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
69.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
69.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-9
69.0%
PATTERSON, Jare rush for 6 yards to the TOLEDO4, out-of-bounds (BLUE, DeDarallo;ROBINSON,Kahlil), PENALTY UB holding (JOHNSON, Anthon) 9 yards to the TOLEDO19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
70.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 14
OPP 19
-3
71.7%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
71.8%
Adam Mitcheson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
71.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
71.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
70.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, downed at the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
71.3%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+25
72.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 25 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
68.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 11 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
67.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 5 yds George Rushing fumbled, forced by Tycen Anderson, recovered by BuffSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-9
68.2%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Devonte' Dunn and Willie Ross Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
72.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 38 yds, downed at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
75.8%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+3
76.1%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
76.2%
JOHNSON, Di. rush for 10 yards to the TOLEDO29, out-of-bounds (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (RUBLE, Brock) 9 yards to the TOLEDO10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 19
OWN 10
0
76.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-1
75.8%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 20
OWN 9
-4
74.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Brock Ruble) to the Toled 5Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 24
OWN 5
0
74.6%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Toled 5Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 24
OWN 5
+20
73.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 32 , K.J. Osborn returns for 20 yds to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
48.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
57.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 19 yds Jon'Vea Johnson fumbled, forced by James Patterson, recovered by Buff Cameron LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25MISSED FG
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:2352% → 44%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
48.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+7
47.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
47.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
47.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 11 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
47.5%
PATTERSON, Jare rush for no gain to the TOLEDO10, out-of-bounds (HOLLMAN, Kadar), PENALTY UB holding (O'HAGAN, James) 10 yards to the TOLEDO20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
-2
49.0%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+7
51.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
55.7%
Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
59.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
61.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
60.1%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
60.1%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Brandon Williams return for 18 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:5051% → 76%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
49.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Drew Rosi) to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
47.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 17 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
47.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
23.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
32.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson, broken up by Malcolm KoonceSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
26.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+10
28.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
25.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jaret Patterson, broken up by Zachary FordSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
25.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 2
50
+14
24.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
24.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
23.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
24.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
26.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George Rushing, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
27.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
26.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
26.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+22
26.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 49 , K.J. Osborn returns for 22 yds to the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 31TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:5182% → 98%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
17.6%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
17.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
17.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
17.0%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-5
16.5%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+6
17.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+5
11.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Tuzar Skipper) to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
2.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 25 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
3.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Wesley ScottSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
3.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+6
3.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 33END OF GAME
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:1998% → 98%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
2.2%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
1.9%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
1.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-2
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 14
OPP 32
-2
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:39
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q4 12:55
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-23.7
TD · Q2 3:22
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 80 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com