2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:35: Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:19: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 76 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +4.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:20: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 24 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:11: Nathan Rourke run for 20 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:52: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 15 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 7:43BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q2 10:10BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−1.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q3 15:00OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 42, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it94.7%−1.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q3 11:13BGSU 4th & 9 at OHIO 38, down 21Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%32% to convertField goal4.0%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call4.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 29, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:12BGSU 4th & 18 at BGSU 18, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:13OHIO 4th & 4 at BGSU 12, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%45% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.186% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:54BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two14.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:43OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:46OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.3%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:35BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.9%97% to makeGo for two18.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:19OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.5%97% to makeGo for two83.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:20OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:11OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:52OHIO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:20OHIO Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD5 plays · 92 yds · 1:0614% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+29
85.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 29 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
85.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryson Denley for 6 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+57
85.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 57 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD13 plays · 78 yds · 6:0585% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
83.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryson Denley for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+43
83.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds, downed at the OHIO 31 OHIO Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1383% → 85%
BGSUDrive 5TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1116% → 22%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
84.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 21 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
83.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Tyler Gullett for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 46Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+18
84.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 18 yds to the Ohio 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
84.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 76 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
OHIODrive 8TD3 plays · 36 yds · 1:3785% → 89%
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
88.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 24 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
86.9%
DOEGE, Jarret pass complete to HARGROVE, R. for 3 yards to the BGSU39 (CROUTCH, E.), PENALTY BGSU pass interference 15 yards to the BGSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+3
87.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 53 yds , Papi White returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 20 Papi White fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Robert Jackson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
OHIODrive 11TD9 plays · 84 yds · 4:5088% → 96%
Q2 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+22
87.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 22 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · -9 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-15
94.2%
DOEGE, Jarret pass complete to MORRIS, Quintin for 20 yards to the OHIO39 (CROUTCH, E.;HAGAN, J.), QB hurry by BERGER, K., PENALTY BGSU personal foul 15 yards to the BGSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+1
94.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
BGSUDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 51 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
96.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 6 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+7
96.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 7 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Ra'veion Hargrove, broken up by Evan CroutchSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+19
96.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 19 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+14
95.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 14 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
95.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryson Denley for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD6 plays · 85 yds · 3:1497% → 100%
BGSUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q3 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+1
99.7%
Rico Frye run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+8
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 8 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-5
99.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Amos Ogun-Semore for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+8
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryson Denley for 8 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
-4
99.8%
Matt Naranjo punt for 42 yds , Papi White returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 25 OHIO Penalty, illegal block (11 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD11 plays · 86 yds · 5:26100% → 100%
Q4 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+12
99.8%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 12 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-3
99.8%
MAXWEll, Q. rush for 8 yards to the BGSU41, out-of-bounds (HAMPTON, T.), PENALTY OHIO holding 3 yards to the OHIO48, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OHIODrive 19END OF GAME12 plays · 48 yds · 5:16100% → 100%
Q4 2:43
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-10
100.0%
NEATHERTON, J. rush for 9 yards to the BGSU0, clock 02:43, PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the BGSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:11
Nathan Rourke run for 20 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 13:35
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q2 13:19
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 76 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)
+4.4