2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:54 · Nick Gasser punt for 29 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for no gain to the KntSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:00: Woody Barrett run for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +15.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:28: Justin Rankin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +12.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:41: Kato Nelson run for 55 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +16.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams — AKR win probability +18.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Justin Rankin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 29 — KENT win probability +42.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 11 of 14AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it39.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%average punt
- Q1 13:13AKR 4th & 12 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.6%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q1 10:43KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 27, tiedClose callPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it41.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:15KENT 4th & 6 at AKR 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt39.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:15KENT 4th & 7 at AKR 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.5%37% to convertField goal39.4%−0.147% to makePunt39.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:01KENT 4th & 9 at AKR 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snapGo for it38.2%−0.629% to convertField goalTheir call38.8%83% to makePunt34.8%−4.0average punt
- Q2 10:37AKR 4th & 8 at KENT 8, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snapGo for it57.4%−0.426% to convertField goalTheir call57.8%90% to makePunt53.2%−4.6average punt
- Q2 10:37KENT 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.7%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:20AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it63.1%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%average punt
- Q2 5:54KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.1%−1.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q2 4:11AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.447% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%average punt
- Q2 2:04KENT 4th & 4 at AKR 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.5%48% to convertField goal35.8%−0.754% to makePunt34.1%−2.4average punt
- Q3 14:54AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 47, tiedClose callPunted · 54.4% before the snapGo for it55.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 8:41KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it46.6%−4.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%average punt
- Q3 6:44AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it50.2%−1.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q3 4:19KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt50.2%−2.1average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 7 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it53.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%average punt
- Q4 14:54AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it46.2%−3.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%average punt
- Q4 12:16KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snapGo for it53.4%−1.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.5%average punt
- Q4 8:51AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it44.6%−3.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.1%average punt
- Q4 6:28KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snapGo for it47.1%−1.840% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q4 1:15AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 40, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it49.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%−4.6average punt
- Q4 0:43KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 30, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it52.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:15AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.8%97% to makeGo for two59.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.6%97% to makeGo for two45.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 10:28KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 8:41AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.1%97% to makeGo for two46.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
45.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 10 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
45.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 6 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-8
45.4%
Kato Nelson sacked by Kalil Morris for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 12
50
0
45.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr., broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 10:43
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
46.0%
Derek Adams punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD7 plays · 56 yds · 2:4354% → 57%
KENTDrive 5FG19 plays · 60 yds · 5:1444% → 46%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Darian DaileySimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Jamal Davis IISimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+10
44.1%
Myles Washington pass complete to Matt Bahr for 10 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
44.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Adam Dulka for 7 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
45.3%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 1 yd to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-10
44.8%
BARRETT, WOODY rush for 7 yards to the AKRON10 (DAVIS, Jamal), PENALTY KENT holding (VIAUD, JAMIL) 10 yards to the AKRON27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 21
OPP 27
+12
44.3%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 12 yds to the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6FG16 plays · 66 yds · 5:2454% → 59%
Q1 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
45.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 5 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+13
46.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
44.0%
PENALTY AKRON unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY KENT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+35
44.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 35 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
44.0%
NELSON, Kato rush for 5 yards to the KENT10, PENALTY AKRON holding (BRADY, Walter) 10 yards to the KENT25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+21
44.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 21 yds to the KntSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett, broken up by Jim JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
42.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 17 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
KENTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
39.6%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to PRICE, KAVIOUS (LAKO, John), PENALTY KENT holding (VAN HOEF, CHASE) 10 yards to the KENT24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+15
39.0%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to MCKOY, ISAIAH, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (BUTLER, Denzel) 15 yards to the KENT39, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
38.4%
EDWARDS, Van rush for no gain to the AKRON10 (SHERALD, Keith;FAULKNER, NICK), PENALTY AKRON illegal formation 5 yards to the AKRON5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
39.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
AKRDrive 12INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
35.0%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Darryl Marshall return for no gain to the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD8 plays · 76 yds · 0:4938% → 56%
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
37.5%
SHAW, JO-EL rush for 7 yards to the KENT31 (JACOBS, Zaire), PENALTY KENT illegal formation 5 yards to the KENT19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+18
36.3%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 18 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+34
40.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 34 yds to the Akron 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
46.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 4 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
46.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
48.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 29 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for no gain to the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15TD11 plays · 76 yds · 3:1353% → 69%
Q3 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+15
53.0%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Darian Dailey) to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+16
55.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 16 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
56.8%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Antwan Dixon, broken up by John LakoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4734% → 52%
Q3 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
65.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Newman Williams for 15 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 8:41
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-1
51.1%
Woody Barrett sacked by Brock Boxen for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
KENTDrive 19PUNT12 plays · 25 yds · 4:1954% → 54%
Q3 4:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
52.1%
Woody Barrett run for 2 yds to the KntSt 35 Woody Barrett fumbled, recovered by KntSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
54.6%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to WOODS, JOHNNY, PENALTY AKRON offside defense (DAVIS, Jamal) 5 yards to the KENT41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
55.7%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 6 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
54.0%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q4 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 24
-5
53.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 57 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
54.7%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Kavious Price for 23 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
56.2%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 3 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
55.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for 2 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
53.9%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 1:4549% → 47%
Q4 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+18
53.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 18 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
47.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 6 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
53.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zaquon Tyson at the KntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q4 6:28
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+9
54.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 9 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 3:1247% → 53%
Q4 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+12
54.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 12 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
51.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 11 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
49.6%
NELSON, Kato rush for 8 yards to the AKRON40, PENALTY AKRON holding (MULDOWNEY, S.) 10 yards to the AKRON22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 20
OWN 22
-1
51.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 21Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+3
46.6%
Nick Gasser punt for 42 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for 3 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2355% → 53%
AKRDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -16 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-16
48.8%
Kato Nelson sacked by Theo Majette and Dennis Wariboko for a loss of 16 yards to the Akron 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete, QB hurry by WEST, ZAYIN, PENALTY KENT roughing passer (PHILLIPS, C.) 11 yards to the KENT11, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY. Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-64.7
TD · OT 0:00
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 29
+42.6
TD · OT 0:00
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams
-18.5