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TOL

Toledo 26 at Eastern Michigan 28

EMU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:25 · Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds TOLEDO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the EMich 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:24: Willie Parker run for 50 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +8.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:51: Shaq Vann run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +7.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:18: Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds for a TD GUADAGNI, Mitchell pass attempt to THOMPSON, Cody good, PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the EMU8, NO PLAY. (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +7.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:59: Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD VEST, Jameson kick attempt good, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (ROSI, Drew) 15 yards to the EMU18, NO PLAY. (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +8.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds for a TD Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Freddie McGee III (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TOL win probability +11.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:25TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:39TOL 4th & 14 at EMU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:15EMU 4th & 9 at TOL 40, up 18
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:08TOL 4th & 1 at EMU 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−3.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−11.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:51EMU 4th & 1 at TOL 1, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−12.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:51TOL 4th & 20 at EMU 39, down 25
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%
    36% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 42, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:30TOL 4th & 11 at EMU 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:55EMU 4th & 6 at TOL 15, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 14 at EMU 18, down 22
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -1.0%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53EMU 4th & 18 at EMU 10, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31EMU 4th & 4 at TOL 48, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:59EMU 4th & 19 at EMU 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−4.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:52EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.7%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:20TOL 4th & 10 at EMU 10, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:55EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:28EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:24EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:51EMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:18TOL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:59TOL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:20TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.0%−8.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0542% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+11
41.9%
Mike Glass III run for 11 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
41.9%
VANN, Shaq rush for 3 yards to the EMU44 (OLEKANMA, Richard), PENALTY TOLEDO offside (SKIPPER, Tuzar) 5 yards to the EMU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+48
41.9%
Mike Glass III run for 48 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
41.9%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.6%
Mike Glass III run for 3 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:3057% → 56%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.3%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
43.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
43.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+25
43.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds TOLEDO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the EMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:4645% → 52%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
45.0%
Mike Glass III run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 44 Mike Glass III fumbled, forced by Reggie Howard, recovered by EMich Mike Glass IIISimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
45.0%
Mike Glass III run for 8 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
45.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
45.1%
Shaq Vann run for 5 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
45.1%
Shaq Vann run for 5 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
51.9%
Mike Glass III run for 22 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
50.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
50.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-9
50.8%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Turan Rush for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 17
OWN 23
+5
51.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds , Blake Banham returns for 5 yds to the EMich 28 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
50
+50
59.3%
Willie Parker run for 50 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:4042% → 38%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+29
58.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 29 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
57.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 7 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
57.5%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
56.5%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
57.5%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+9
57.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 9 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Ross WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
56.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 19 yds to the EMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
56.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 18Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 14
OPP 18
0
56.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 14
OPP 18
0
57.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+35
62.1%
Jameson Vest 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2463% → 65%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
62.9%
Willie Parker run for 4 yds to the EMich 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+42
63.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 42 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
64.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Isaac Holder for 2 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
64.6%
Willie Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
64.2%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Blake BanhamSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
64.8%
Jake Julien punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Fisher at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 82 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
65.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+11
65.3%
GUADAGNI, Mitchell pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea, PENALTY EMU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Ross) 11 yards to the TOLEDO18, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+35
64.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 35 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
63.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
62.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
62.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 9 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
62.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-5
62.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EMich 32Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-5
63.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EMich 37Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+12
63.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 12 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
62.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the EMich 23 Bryant Koback fumbled, recovered by Toled Bryant KobackSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
62.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
63.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 7 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the EMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:0971% → 83%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
70.9%
Mike Glass III run for 14 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
70.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 11 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Blake BanhamSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+29
71.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Breck Turner for 29 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
71.9%
Breck Turner run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+21
71.6%
Mike Glass III run for 21 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
71.6%
Blake Banham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
71.6%
Shaq Vann run for 6 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.0%
Mike Glass III run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.7%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 30 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
74.5%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
74.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
74.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
50
0
73.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Vince CalhounSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
50
+6
74.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 6 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
73.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding (Kevin McGill) to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
71.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-3
73.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 15
OPP 34
-5
74.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EMich 39Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 20
OPP 39
0
75.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 20
OPP 39
-6
75.1%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Kyle Rachwal for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2290% → 91%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
90.0%
Mike Glass III run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+2
90.5%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
89.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (CJ Hunt) to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
89.1%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Maxx Crosby and Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+8
89.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-7
89.1%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Jaylen Pickett for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
90.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
94.2%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+10
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 10 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 8 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 4 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
94.5%
Tyler Wiegers run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 34Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+4
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Shaq Vann for 4 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+4
94.5%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 4 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+52
94.3%
Jake Julien punt for 39 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 52 yds to the EASTMICH 6 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the EMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:176% → 7%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
94.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
94.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-3
94.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 15Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
93.0%
Jameson Vest 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:3594% → 96%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
93.7%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Bryce Kemp for 30 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
94.3%
Willie Parker run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 8 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
94.3%
Willie Parker run for 7 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+6
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Shaq Vann for 6 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 4 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Bryce Kemp, broken up by DeDarallo BlueSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
94.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Shaq VannSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
95.7%
Chad Ryland 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:555% → 2%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
95.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
95.1%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Ikie Calderon) to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
95.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
94.8%
GUADAGNI, Mitchell rush for 4 yards to the EMU38, PENALTY EMU offside 4 yards to the EMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+11
94.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
94.9%
GUADAGNI, Mitchell pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY TOLEDO IR off-setting, PENALTY EMU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
94.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 13 yds to the EMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
94.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-5
94.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Brock Ruble) to the EMich 15Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-1
94.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+1
95.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the EMich 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Toled Mitchell Guadagni , return for 1 yd to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 18
0
97.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
97.7%
Breck Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 17Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Line LatuSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 17
-7
97.6%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 10 Tyler Wiegers fumbled, recovered by EMich Tyler Wiegers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 18
OWN 10
+31
97.5%
Jake Julien punt for 48 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 31 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 18
OWN 0
+15
97.6%
PENALTY EMU personal foul (CALHOUN, Vince) 15 yards to the EMU25, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (DAVIS, Erik) 15 yards to the EMU10, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:422% → 10%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
97.9%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+5
97.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
97.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+18
90.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds for a TD GUADAGNI, Mitchell pass attempt to THOMPSON, Cody good, PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the EMU8, NO PLAY. (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4094% → 94%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
94.2%
Shaq Vann run for 16 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
94.9%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
94.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+1
94.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Shaq Vann for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
94.3%
Jake Julien punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:457% → 18%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+20
92.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 20 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.5%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+25
92.5%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 25 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
91.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+17
90.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 6 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Jaylen Pickett) to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
90.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the EMich 3Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD VEST, Jameson kick attempt good, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (ROSI, Drew) 15 yards to the EMU18, NO PLAY. (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.1%
Jairus Grissom run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
88.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete, broken up by Nate ChildressSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
88.0%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 16Similar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+3
87.0%
Jake Julien punt for 34 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 3 yds to the EMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
84.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 47 Mitchell Guadagni fumbled, recovered by Toled Mitchell GuadagniSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
85.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Ross WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-2
86.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass intercepted Blake Bogan return for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:4592% → 96%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
92.3%
Shaq Vann run for 8 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+2
92.7%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.3%
Tyler Wiegers run for 4 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
95.1%
Tyler Wiegers run for 3 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
96.0%
Tyler Wiegers run for 2 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
96.3%
Jairus Grissom run for no gain to the EMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:257% → 19%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
92.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 22 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
89.3%
Diontae Johnson run for 11 yds to the EMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Kyle RachwalSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
91.9%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
81.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds for a TD Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Freddie McGee III (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 44
+2
80.6%
TEAM run for 2 yds to the EMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.4
TD · Q4 0:20
Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds for a TD Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Freddie McGee III (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-11.5
TD · Q4 5:59
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD VEST, Jameson kick attempt good, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (ROSI, Drew) 15 yards to the EMU18, NO PLAY. (Jameson Vest KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com