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BALL

Ball State 24 at Central Michigan 23

CMU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:21 · Morgan Hagee 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+18.5+9.30−9.3−18.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+13.0Score differential+6.2Pregame prior−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Garbage-time factor+2.6Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:21: Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +13.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:16: Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 6 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +18.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:12: Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +28.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:19: Ryan Tice 47 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +20.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:47: Morgan Hagee 36 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +45.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 13 at CMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59CMU 4th & 20 at BALL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:59BALL 4th & 7 at CMU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:41CMU 4th & 4 at BALL 8, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:33BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−8.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21BALL 4th & 9 at CMU 45, down 13
    Close callPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:35CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 8 at BALL 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:21BALL 4th & 8 at CMU 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:21CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−2.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:16CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:19CMU 4th & 18 at BALL 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−12.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−19.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:19BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.4%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:47BALL 4th & 4 at CMU 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−23.3
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−38.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 8:33BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:55CMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:21CMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:16BALL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:12BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
45.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 32 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
45.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-5
45.3%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+4
45.3%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
45.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-5
45.3%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to SCHRANK, Kyle for 11 yards to the CMU30, PENALTY BSU ineligible downfield on pass (BLACKWELL, C.) 5 yards to the CMU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
45.3%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 44 yds, downed at the CMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 4:4546% → 47%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
45.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
45.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
45.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
45.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 7 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
45.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+12
45.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 12 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
45.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 7 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-2
46.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+36
45.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for 36 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
46.2%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
46.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+4
47.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 5
OPP 20
-15
47.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 20
OPP 35
+53
47.1%
Ryan Tice 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.8%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
47.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
47.5%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
47.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 10 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
47.0%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+8
47.6%
Malik Dunner run for 8 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
47.0%
Malik Dunner run for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
47.1%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
47.7%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:1648% → 55%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
48.4%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+14
48.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 14 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
48.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
48.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the CMich 28 Tommy Lazzaro fumbled, forced by Christian Albright, recovered by CMich Tommy LazzaroSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+15
47.9%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete to HICKS, Julian, PENALTY BSU pass interference (MILLER, Josh) 15 yards to the CMU43, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
49.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
49.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+5
49.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
49.7%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+31
49.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 31 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
49.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+4
51.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+3
51.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
54.6%
Ryan Tice 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 5:0847% → 55%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
52.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 3 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
52.7%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
55.1%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
54.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 3 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
54.4%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
54.0%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+26
54.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 26 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
52.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 20 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
51.9%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
51.9%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.0%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3846% → 59%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
46.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+47
46.0%
Romello Ross run for 47 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
48.8%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
48.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
49.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 9 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
49.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
59.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Tony Poljan for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
58.4%
Riley Neal sacked by Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 20 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by CMich Mike Danna , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:2259% → 73%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.2%
Jonathan Ward pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by Antonio PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
59.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Tony Poljan for 19 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
68.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
67.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
67.0%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
68.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Malik Dunner, broken up by Trevor ApseySimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
68.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding (Sean Bunting) to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.3%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
67.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-6
66.0%
Riley Neal sacked by Amir Siddiq and Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
68.2%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+26
74.4%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Jamil Sabbagh for 11 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
75.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
74.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
73.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
75.2%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 16
OWN 43
0
74.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 16
OWN 43
0
73.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 27 yds, downed at the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -14 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-14
72.5%
Riley Neal sacked by Trevor Apsey for a loss of 14 yards to the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
75.3%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+18
75.6%
Romello Ross run for 18 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
76.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
76.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
75.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete, broken up by Jaylin ThomasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+10
74.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds , Justin Hall returns for 10 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 4:4625% → 19%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
74.8%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
74.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 7 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
74.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
74.3%
Riley Neal sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+4
74.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+5
75.1%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to LACANARIA, C., PENALTY CMU offside 5 yards to the BSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
74.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 4 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
73.8%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
73.0%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
72.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 15 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
71.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
71.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
72.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+48
81.2%
Morgan Hagee 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
83.3%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
83.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+11
82.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 11 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
84.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
83.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+12
83.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 12 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
84.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+10
83.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 10 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
83.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Romello Ross for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
83.1%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:1815% → 32%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
84.6%
Justin Hall run for 6 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
83.7%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
83.1%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
83.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 8 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
81.4%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HALL, Justin, PENALTY BSU holding off-setting, PENALTY CMU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
82.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+6
83.8%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+15
83.1%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HALL, Justin, PENALTY CMU pass interference (JAMISON, D.) 15 yards to the CMU27, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
81.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+1
81.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+10
82.6%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete, PENALTY CMU roughing passer (STUART, Robi) 10 yards to the CMU11, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
81.4%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
86.5%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
68.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 6 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
77.1%
Romello Ross run for 14 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
77.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-2
77.1%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+6
76.6%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
76.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Drayton LawSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+10
75.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 57 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 10 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0926% → 62%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.1%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
72.5%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
74.1%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
73.1%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+6
74.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+18
74.3%
Riley Neal run for 18 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
70.9%
James Gilbert run for 16 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
67.2%
Corey Lacanaria pass complete to Riley Miller for 19 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
66.9%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
66.9%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5351% → 73%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
50.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 7 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+8
55.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.3%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+12
56.1%
Romello Ross run for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
56.4%
ROSS, Romello rush for 2 yards to the BSU35 (THOMAS, Jaylin), PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the BSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+16
53.0%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46 BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (James Jennette III) to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
59.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 10 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
59.1%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Ray Wilborn for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+2
55.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 18
OPP 29
0
52.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Drayton LawSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+47
72.8%
Ryan Tice 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 3:3234% → 80%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
66.2%
Riley Neal sacked by D'Andre Dill and Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
67.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
68.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 13 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
66.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
64.6%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
50
+15
59.4%
NEAL, Riley pass intercepted by APSEY, Trevor at the CMU19, APSEY, Trevor return to the CMU19, PENALTY CMU roughing passer (DANNA, Mike) 15 yards to the CMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
57.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+6
56.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 6 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
55.4%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
53.1%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
53.1%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+1
54.9%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
19.9%
Morgan Hagee 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 39%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
33.7%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete to CHILDRESS, B., PENALTY BSU holding (PHILLIPS, A.) 10 yards to the CMU43, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
35.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for 9 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
38.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:47
Morgan Hagee 36 yd FG GOOD
-45
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-38.9
TD · Q4 8:12
Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-28.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com