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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:16 · Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 6 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Nick Gasser 44 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +3.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Adam Mitcheson kickoff for 55 yds , Nate Stewart return for 17 yds to the Akron 27 — BUF win probability +3.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:03: Timeout AKRON, clock 08:03 — BUF win probability +3.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:56: Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +9.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:00: Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +6.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.4%average punt
- Q1 11:02AKR 4th & 1 at BUF 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.8%71% to convertField goal21.6%−0.245% to makePunt21.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:44AKR 4th & 7 at BUF 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call22.5%54% to makePunt22.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:53BUF 4th & 5 at AKR 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snapGo for it75.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call75.8%70% to makePunt74.8%−1.1average punt
- Q1 4:53AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.2%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q1 3:16BUF 4th & 2 at AKR 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.5%57% to convertField goal75.2%−0.266% to makePunt74.0%−1.5average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q2 13:24AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.6%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q2 6:49BUF 4th & 9 at AKR 13, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snapGo for it75.1%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call75.5%85% to makePunt72.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 6:49AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it18.4%−1.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%average punt
- Q2 5:24BUF 4th & 22 at BUF 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snapGo for it76.6%−2.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%average punt
- Q2 2:30AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 47, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%−1.2average punt
- Q2 1:29BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.5%−0.251% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.7%average punt
- Q3 14:54AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q3 13:37BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it71.6%−2.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%average punt
- Q4 12:00AKR 4th & 8 at BUF 46, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.134% to convertField goal2.8%−0.623% to makePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q4 7:36BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 40, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q4 4:35AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 34, down 18Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 0:47BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:56BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:00BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
81.6%
Evan Finegan punt for 40 yds , Andre Williams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 25 Andre Williams fumbled, forced by Joey Banks,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FG14 plays · 44 yds · 5:1519% → 21%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
81.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 18 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
81.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 4 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
81.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 9 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
81.2%
Kato Nelson run for 5 yds to the Buff 33 AKRON Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3MISSED FG11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5179% → 78%
AKRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-9
77.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Daishawn Brimage for 1 yd to the Akron 28 AKRON Penalty, illegal block (Brock Boxen) to the Akron 18Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+4
77.9%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the Akron 19 Kato Nelson fumbled, forced by James Patterson,Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 14
OWN 19
+10
78.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 41 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD8 plays · 50 yds · 2:2978% → 80%
Q1 3:16
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+9
77.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+6
77.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 6 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
79.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 17 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:4022% → 21%
Q1 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+3
78.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Keyondre White for 3 yds to the Akron 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7INT5 plays · 51 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+50
78.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 50 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
79.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
79.4%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Kyron Brown return for no gain to the Akron 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-6
77.9%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-6 Yards) to the Akron 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG11 plays · 57 yds · 4:2978% → 81%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Ulysees Gilbert IIISimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
78.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 13 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+28
78.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 28 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
78.9%
[SGUN], MARKS, Kevin rush for no gain to the AKRON14 (DAVIS, Jamal), PENALTY UB holding (MABRY, Tyler) 10 yards to the AKRON24, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-6
79.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by Myles Nicholas for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 21 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by Akron Kato Nelson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
80.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
81.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+4
80.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-10
80.2%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to OSBORN, K.J. for 16 yards to the AKRON43 (BUTLER, Denzel), PENALTY UB holding (GALL, Jacob) 10 yards to the UB31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 22
OWN 31
+46
79.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 46 yds AKRON Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 1:1820% → 20%
Q2 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
81.4%
[SGUN], NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to MORRIS, Jonah, PENALTY UB pass interference (BAKER, Roy) 15 yards to the AKRON39, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
79.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 6 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
79.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Aapri WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
AKRDrive 14FG7 plays · 32 yds · 1:0521% → 26%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
79.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Dustin Burkhart for 4 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
78.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 18 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
77.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Roy BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
76.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 40 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
75.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
50
-5
77.2%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (DEROUEN, Trey) 5 yards to the UB45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
76.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 15
OWN 45
-2
75.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
74.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0026% → 22%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Bennett for 3 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
71.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 26 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-1
70.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-15
73.3%
[SGUN], NELSON, Kato pass complete to SANDS, Deltron for 29 yards to the UB1, out-of-bounds (WILLIAMS, Brand), PENALTY AKRON pass interference (REINKE, Brian) 15 yards to the UB45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 28
OPP 45
-7
77.1%
Kato Nelson sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 35
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 32 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD13 plays · 80 yds · 5:2277% → 90%
Q3 7:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
77.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 11 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
79.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Rodney Scott III for 7 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
80.9%
[PSTL], PENALTY AKRON offside (DAVIS, Jamal) 5 yards to the AKRON25, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19INT4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
89.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 25 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
87.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
88.3%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Jordan Collier return for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5390% → 98%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 0
0
90.0%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to OSBORN, K.J. for 11 yards to the UB40 (GILBERT, U.), PENALTY AKRON roughing passer off-setting, PENALTY UB ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+43
90.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 43 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q4 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+16
97.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 28 , Jeremiah Knight returns for no gain to the Akron 28 Jeremiah Knight fumbled, forced by Jovany Ruiz, recovered by Akron Jeremiah Knight , return for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Nick Gasser punt for 32 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:56
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q4 12:00
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+6.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:03
Timeout AKRON, clock 08:03
+3.9