2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:11 · Matthew Trickett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kylan Nelson at the Ohio 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 9:33: Matthew Trickett 39 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +11.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:32: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 59 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +16.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:45: A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +26.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:12: Matthew Trickett 28 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +21.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:28: Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD Timeout OHIO, clock 01:28 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OHIO win probability +38.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 14:44OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 41, down 7Close callPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it77.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:11KENT 4th & 1 at OHIO 49, up 7Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 14:04OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 29, down 7Close callPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it64.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 11:20KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt37.9%−1.4average punt
- Q2 8:26KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it38.9%−1.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.6%average punt
- Q2 2:58OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.9%71% to convertField goal51.7%−2.256% to makePunt49.7%−4.2average punt
- Q2 0:59OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.6%71% to convertField goal52.5%−1.075% to makePunt45.8%−7.7average punt
- Q3 9:33KENT 4th & 11 at OHIO 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snapGo for it61.3%−2.125% to convertField goalTheir call63.4%72% to makePunt54.5%−8.9average punt
- Q3 6:32KENT 4th & 11 at OHIO 35, up 6Close callWent for it · 57.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.1%−0.727% to convertField goal58.8%45% to makePunt57.3%−1.5average punt
- Q3 1:11KENT 4th & 18 at OHIO 21, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snapGo for it60.7%−5.412% to convertField goalTheir call66.1%74% to makePunt52.4%−13.7average punt
- Q4 5:12KENT 4th & 5 at OHIO 11, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snapGo for it66.3%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call66.4%87% to makePunt42.3%−24.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 14:50KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.1%97% to makeGo for two23.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:36KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.0%97% to makeGo for two30.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:48OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.1%97% to makeGo for two67.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:32OHIO Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.2%97% to makeGo for two37.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:45OHIO Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two40.7%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 1:28OHIO Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick59.5%−2.697% to makeGo for twoTheir call62.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
22.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
23.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 12 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3TD11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4025% → 30%
OHIODrive 4TD11 plays · 66 yds · 5:4070% → 69%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
29.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 12 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
29.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 1 yd to the KntSt 27Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
29.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Connor Brown for 8 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5INT6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
33.2%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 2 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+10
32.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Adam Dulka for 10 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
33.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 21 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+50
34.4%
Woody Barrett pass intercepted Marlin Brooks return for 50 yds to the KntSt 42 Marlin Brooks fumbled, recovered by KntSt Trey HarrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4736% → 36%
Q2 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
36.0%
Matthew Trickett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kylan Nelson at the Ohio 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
35.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 11 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
35.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 4 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
35.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 47 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for 5 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8FUMBLE5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 11:20
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
38.7%
Woody Barrett run for 2 yds to the Ohio 48 Woody Barrett fumbled, forced by Jared Dorsa, recovered by Ohio Marlin BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9INT3 plays · 32 yds · 0:0062% → 64%
KENTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
OHIODrive 11FUMBLE13 plays · 28 yds · 6:0759% → 51%
Q2 7:06
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
40.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 8 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
40.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 7 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
49.4%
Nathan Rourke run for no gain to the KntSt 23 Nathan Rourke fumbled, forced by KJ Sherald, recovered by KntSt Jordan SilvaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12FG8 plays · 44 yds · 0:5052% → 61%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
52.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 3 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+17
52.3%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 17 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+17
54.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for 17 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
55.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Woody Barrett for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 28 KENT ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Woody Barrett) to the Ohio 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13FUMBLE7 plays · 61 yds · 0:0045% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.9%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to WHITE, P., PENALTY KENT holding (MARSHALL, D.) 10 yards to the OHIO35, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
54.2%
ROURKE, N. pass complete to WHITE, P. for 17 yards to the KENT48 (PARKER, JAMAL), PENALTY OHIO ineligible downfield on pass (LOWERY, J.) 5 yards to the OHIO30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+30
54.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 30 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
52.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jamal Parker) to the KntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
50.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the KntSt 14 A.J. Ouellette fumbled, forced by Jim Jones, recovered by KntSt Matt HarmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14FG9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1560% → 72%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
60.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 5 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
60.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 6 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Justin Rankin for 12 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
61.2%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 5 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 13
OPP 24
0
62.5%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Antwan Dixon, broken up by Dylan ConnerSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+2
60.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 2 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD7 plays · 88 yds · 2:5528% → 47%
KENTDrive 16FG15 plays · 54 yds · 5:2159% → 73%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
58.7%
PENALTY OHIO unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY KENT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
58.7%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 41 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-27
62.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for a loss of 27 yards to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 23
OPP 47
+12
58.5%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for 12 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+21
57.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Johnny Woods for 21 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+4
60.5%
BARRETT, WOODY pass incomplete to WOODS, JOHNNY, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (BURROUGHS, D.) 4 yards to the OHIO13, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-9
62.6%
Woody Barrett sacked by Will Evans for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2028% → 54%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
71.7%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to WHITE, P. (PARKER, JAMAL), PENALTY KENT pass interference (PARKER, JAMAL) 15 yards to the OHIO46, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
70.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 27 yds to the KENTST 27 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
66.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 10 yds to the KntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-9
67.6%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Jordan Silva for a loss of 9 yards to the KntSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+19
72.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 19 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18FG20 plays · 64 yds · 7:2857% → 83%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.0%
Woody Barrett pass incomplete to Trey Harrell, broken up by Cole BakerSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
54.3%
BARRETT, WOODY pass intercepted by HAGAN, J. at the OHIO48, HAGAN, J. return to the KENT32 (WOODS, JOHNNY), PENALTY OHIO pass interference (BROOKS, M.) 15 yards to the KENT37, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
57.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Trey Harrell for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 29Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+12
56.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 12 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+5
57.5%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Johnny Woods for 5 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
63.4%
Woody Barrett run for 5 yds to the Ohio 23 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Trey Harrell) to the Ohio 33Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+17
62.6%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 17 yds to the Ohio 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
63.4%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 2 yds to the Ohio 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:3930% → 79%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
70.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+13
71.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 13 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
67.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Kesean Gamble) to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
62.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 16 yds to the KntSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
59.6%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Theo Majette for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 34Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+20
64.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 20 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
21.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD Timeout OHIO, clock 01:28 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20INT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:1349% → 42%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
48.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 3 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+9
43.8%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 9 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
49.1%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+10
41.5%
Woody Barrett pass intercepted Javon Hagan return for 10 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD Timeout OHIO, clock 01:28 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-38.2
TD · Q4 12:45
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)
-26.2
FG · Q4 5:12
Matthew Trickett 28 yd FG GOOD
+21.8