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BUF

Buffalo 34 at Central Michigan 24

CMU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:47 · Evan Finegan punt for 69 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense−13.4Pregame prior−6.1Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:31: Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +6.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:24: Romello Ross run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +15.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:08: Kevin Marks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +19.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:47: Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 23 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +16.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:14: Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:36CMU 4th & 9 at BUF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 15, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45CMU 4th & 6 at BUF 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54CMU 4th & 12 at BUF 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:31CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:48BUF 4th & 9 at CMU 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:50BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:47BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55BUF 4th & 1 at CMU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−2.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:18BUF 4th & 10 at CMU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:14BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19CMU 4th & 5 at BUF 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:37BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:31BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:24CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:08BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:47CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:14BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:19CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:2429% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.1%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
29.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+21
29.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (21 Yards) to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
29.1%
Devon Spalding run for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
29.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+12
29.1%
Julian Hicks run for 12 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
29.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
29.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-4
29.1%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
31.6%
Ryan Tice 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:5969% → 70%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
31.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
31.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
31.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
31.1%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+29
31.1%
Kevin Marks run for 29 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
31.0%
K.J. Osborn run for 5 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
30.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+28
31.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Drayton Law for 28 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
32.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
32.0%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+13
31.4%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Cameron Cole for 13 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
32.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Drayton Law) to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+3
31.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
31.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
31.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Brandon Williams return for no gain to the Buff 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
32.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Williams) to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
32.4%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-2
32.3%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 10 Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by Buff Tyree Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
32.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 6
OWN 10
+5
33.0%
FINEGAN, Evan punt 54 yards to the CMU36, WARD, Jonathan return to the UB45 (MOLINICH, Jake), PENALTY CMU offside (STURKEY, R.) 5 yards to the UB15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
32.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 51 yds, downed at the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
32.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for 17 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
34.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 6 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
34.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-2
33.9%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Myles Nicholas for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
33.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0967% → 65%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
33.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
33.4%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
34.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+7
34.7%
Evan Finegan punt for 40 yds , Jonathan Ward returns for 7 yds to the Buff 11 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:5135% → 34%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
35.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 13 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
35.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
35.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
34.9%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
35.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+3
35.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
35.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
34.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
33.8%
Ryan Tice 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:2366% → 75%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
33.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
33.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
32.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
32.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+11
32.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
32.5%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to RUSHING, George, PENALTY CMU pass interference (REED, Devonni) 15 yards to the CMU21, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
31.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
31.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 56 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 6 yds to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:4974% → 79%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+27
26.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 27 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
25.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
25.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for no gain to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+39
25.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 39 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
24.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 9Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
24.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
25.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
21.0%
Adam Mitcheson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4921% → 20%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
21.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
21.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
21.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 32
-5
20.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+8
20.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 43 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 8 yds to the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
19.1%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-3
18.8%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
19.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
19.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
20.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
20.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14INT
12 plays · 63 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
19.2%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
19.1%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
19.3%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
19.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 20 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
17.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 4 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
17.9%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
17.9%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
17.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
17.7%
K.J. Osborn run for 1 yd to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
17.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds K.J. Osborn fumbled, forced by Alex Briones, recovered by Buff K.J. Osborn for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
17.7%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Sean Bunting return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3217% → 32%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
16.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
50
0
18.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
50
+8
18.6%
Devon Spalding run for 8 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
19.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
19.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
19.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+13
19.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 13 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
20.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
20.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Cameron Cole for 2 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
31.8%
Romello Ross run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
12.6%
Kevin Marks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2114% → 33%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
14.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
14.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for 9 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
14.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
15.4%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
15.1%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete, PENALTY UB offside 5 yards to the CMU49, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
15.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 25 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
16.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
33.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 23 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
24.7%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
23.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
25.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4627% → 23%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
26.8%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
26.4%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Eddie Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
23.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Cameron Lewis return for no gain to the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:4180% → 94%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
20.2%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
20.4%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
20.7%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+11
21.7%
Kevin Marks run for 11 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
19.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
19.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
6.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
10.8%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
10.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Cameron Cole, broken up by Aapri WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+3
10.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Joey Banks return for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 6:0694% → 98%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
6.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+7
5.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
5.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+9
5.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
5.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+25
5.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 25 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
5.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
5.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Alex Briones for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
6.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
2.2%
Adam Mitcheson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Aapri Washington return for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5098% → 98%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
2.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
2.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-1
1.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Evan Finegan punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jamil Sabbagh at the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:491% → 4%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
1.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Devon Spalding for 6 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
1.1%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+11
1.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Devon Spalding for 11 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.2%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Kumehnnu GwillySimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
1.2%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+24
1.2%
Tony Poljan pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 24 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
1.4%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 5 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
1.2%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Kumehnnu GwillySimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
1.2%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+9
3.7%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Julian Hicks for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26Uncategorized
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
3.8%
TEAM run for 11 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:08
Kevin Marks run for 70 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q3 1:47
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 23 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q3 5:24
Romello Ross run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com