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BGSU

Bowling Green 36 at Toledo 52

TOL
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:28 · Bailey Flint run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior+28.9Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:36: Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 61 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:38: Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:35: Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 8 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:35: Bryant Koback run for 7 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +9.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:08: Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:58TOL 4th & 8 at BGSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:41TOL 4th & 5 at BGSU 26, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:28TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 46, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:28TOL 4th & 8 at BGSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BGSU 4th & 8 at TOL 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:51TOL 4th & 10 at BGSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−10.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:52TOL 4th & 11 at BGSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:23BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−3.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:08BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:33TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:59BGSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:47BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:35TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:36BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:38TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:35BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:35TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:08TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:10TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:00BGSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:0291% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+16
91.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
91.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+7
91.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
91.4%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+13
91.4%
Art Thompkins run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
91.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
91.4%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
91.4%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
90.8%
Jameson Vest 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
90.7%
Jarret Doege run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
90.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Reggie Gilliam blocked by Reggie GilliamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0491% → 91%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
90.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Art Thompkins for 3 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+7
90.6%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (McBRIDE, Jerry) 7 yards to the BGSU12, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
90.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
90.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
90.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 4 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
90.5%
Andrew Clair run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 34 Andrew Clair fumbled, forced by Jordan Fisher, recovered by Toled Ka'dar Hollman , return for 1 yd to the BwGrn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:1691% → 92%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
90.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 23 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
90.8%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
92.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 86 yds · 3:528% → 10%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
91.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
91.9%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 11
OWN 13
-5
91.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (Jarret Doege) to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+47
92.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 47 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
91.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryson Denley for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
91.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow III, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-3
91.6%
Jarret Doege run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43 Jarret Doege fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Jarret DoegeSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+8
91.8%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (ANDERSON, Tycen) 8 yards to the TOLEDO35, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
91.3%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
91.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Jordan Wayne-Prather, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+16
91.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for 16 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
89.7%
Andrew Clair run for 15 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:3990% → 90%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
89.9%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
89.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+15
89.9%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY BGSU roughing passer (SALGUERO, E.) 15 yards to the TOLEDO28, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Josh TeacheySimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
90.0%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+2
90.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
89.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:5110% → 12%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
90.3%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
90.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
87.6%
Andrew Clair run for 60 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:0688% → 90%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
87.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
87.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
88.0%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY BGSU holding (STEPHENS, Clint) 10 yards to the BGSU47, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
88.2%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+8
88.2%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
88.4%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+5
88.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Art Thompkins for 5 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+13
87.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 13 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
88.5%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-5
88.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Reggie Gilliam) to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+14
88.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 14 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5910% → 14%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
90.1%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for 9 yards to the BGSU34 (ROBINSON,Kahlil), PENALTY BGSU illegal block (HENDRIX, Dorian) 12 yards to the BGSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
90.2%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+23
90.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 23 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
89.9%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
89.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow III, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+61
85.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 61 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 1:0886% → 85%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
85.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Fred Garth) to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
86.3%
PETERS, Eli pass complete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea for 27 yards to the BGSU30 (GREGORY, Montre), PENALTY TOLEDO IE (HARRIS, Bryce) 5 yards to the TOLEDO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
85.9%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+8
85.2%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+13
85.0%
Bailey Flint run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
86.5%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+2
86.0%
Eli Peters run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
85.4%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4216% → 16%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
83.6%
Ra'veion Hargrove run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+12
84.1%
Ra'veion Hargrove run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
50
+2
82.8%
Ra'veion Hargrove run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+10
82.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
82.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 11 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
82.0%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
82.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
83.6%
Nate Needham 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Desjuan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.6%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow III, broken up by Tycen AndersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
82.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-8
82.9%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 55 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 5:3382% → 89%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
82.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+6
82.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+15
81.4%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY BGSU pass interference (GREGORY, Montre) 15 yards to the TOLEDO32, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
82.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
83.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+13
83.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
84.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 29 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
84.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
84.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+5
82.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
83.1%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.1%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD
20 plays · 84 yds · 6:5812% → 31%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
87.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (Jarret Doege) to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+5
88.0%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for 1 yard to the BGSU12 (SKIPPER, Tuzar;TAAFE, Tyler), PENALTY TOLEDO offside defense (HOWARD, Reggie) 5 yards to the BGSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
87.9%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+8
88.1%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HOLLMAN, Kadar) 8 yards to the BGSU26, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
87.7%
Bryson Denley run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
87.0%
Bryson Denley run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
87.1%
Bryson Denley run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
86.6%
Rico Frye run for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
86.3%
Rico Frye run for 9 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
85.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
86.0%
Rico Frye run for 2 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
85.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Dorian Hendrix for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+18
86.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ra'veion Hargrove for 18 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
85.1%
HARGROVE, R. rush for 1 yard to the TOLEDO6 (TAAFE, Tyler), PENALTY BGSU holding (KURTZ, John) 10 yards to the TOLEDO17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+2
85.5%
Ra'veion Hargrove run for 2 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
86.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
87.2%
DOEGE, Jarret pass intercepted by HOLLMAN, Kadar at the TOLEDO0, HOLLMAN, Kadar return to the TOLEDO0, touchback, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (TEACHEY, Josh) 7 yards to the TOLEDO8, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
69.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 8 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:4476% → 76%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
76.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 27 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
79.4%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+28
79.4%
Art Thompkins run for 28 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
79.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
78.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
75.7%
Jameson Vest 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.7%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
74.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 1 yd to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-12
75.6%
DOEGE, Jarret pass complete to MORRIS, Quintin for 13 yards to the BGSU38, PENALTY BGSU face mask (KURTZ, John) 12 yards to the BGSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+6
76.6%
Ra'veion Hargrove run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
77.4%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 77%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
80.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-6
81.5%
THOMPKINS, Art rush for 7 yards to the BGSU26 (JUNIOR, Kyle;McBRIDE, Jerry), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (ATARIWA, Yazeed) 6 yards to the BGSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
80.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Marcus MiltonSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
78.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
76.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, downed at the BwGrn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
74.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Justin ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
75.3%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 9
OWN 2
-1
76.6%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to MORRIS, Quintin, PENALTY BGSU illegal forward pass (DOEGE, Jarret) 1 yards to the BGSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+14
77.4%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 36 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 14 yds to the BwGrn 15 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (Victor Williams) to the BwGrn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:3381% → 91%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
81.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 19 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (7 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.7%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Jordan Wayne-PratherSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.8%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1893% → 98%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
92.7%
Diontae Johnson run for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
92.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
92.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson, broken up by Kholbe ColemanSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+18
92.6%
Bryant Koback run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
93.0%
Bryant Koback run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
97.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:5098% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
98.4%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+21
99.7%
Bryant Koback run for 21 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:101% → 4%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Bryson Denley run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+24
99.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 24 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
96.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 42 yds for a TD (Jarret Doege pass to RB Marlow III for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0999% → 99%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
98.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+6
98.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
98.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+8
98.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 8 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q4 9:35
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 8:38
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com