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TOL

Toledo 27 at Fresno State 49

FRES
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:57 · Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense+13.8Pregame prior+14.8Score differential+4.1Garbage-time factor+2.4Blowout margin+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:33: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +9.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:24: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +5.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:26: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 47 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +6.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:06: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:22: Eli Peters pass intercepted for a TD Mykal Walker return for 38 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:45FRES 4th & 3 at TOL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:08TOL 4th & 9 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22TOL 4th & 8 at FRES 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:33TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:21TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:57TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00FRES 4th & 2 at TOL 27, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:22TOL 4th & 3 at FRES 17, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:41TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 22, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 35, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:55TOL 4th & 20 at FRES 20, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:55FRES 4th & 3 at midfield, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:43FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 28, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:27FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:59TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:24FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:26FRES Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:06FRES Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:22FRES Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:48FRES Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:50TOL Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:42TOL Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.6%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+3
77.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
77.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4177% → 78%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
77.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 14 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
77.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
77.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
77.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
77.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+7
77.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 7 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
77.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+18
77.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Cam Sutton for 18 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
77.4%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
77.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2022% → 26%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
77.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
77.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
77.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+28
77.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 28 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
77.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
77.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
77.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
73.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 19 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:0575% → 75%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
75.3%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
74.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Chris Coleman for 11 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
75.3%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
75.5%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-2
75.3%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:3027% → 30%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
73.4%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+10
73.5%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
73.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
73.4%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+51
73.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 36 yds to the FRESNOST 45 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Atkins) to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.8%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
70.9%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+4
71.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
70.3%
Jameson Vest 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
70.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 24 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
72.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Jamal Hines return for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0831% → 35%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
68.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
68.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
68.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+3
68.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
69.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
65.2%
Jameson Vest 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:4366% → 75%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
65.9%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
66.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 8 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
67.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+55
66.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 55 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.5%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
72.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
72.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:2774% → 81%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
73.5%
Marcus McMaryion run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+21
74.5%
Josh Hokit run for 21 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
75.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
75.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 36 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
75.9%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0320% → 18%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
79.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
81.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Kwami Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+18
82.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 18 yds to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
88.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 47 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2213% → 10%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
86.9%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-4
86.4%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Mykal Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21 Mitchell Guadagni fumbled, recovered by Toled Mitchell Guadagni , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+5
90.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:5391% → 89%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared Rice, broken up by Kahlil RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
90.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
90.6%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to MIMS, Jordan, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (TAAFE, Tyler) 10 yards to the TOLEDO35, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
90.7%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Desjaun Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+13
90.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Chris Coleman for 13 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
90.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for no gain to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+43
89.2%
Asa Fuller 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5488% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.7%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+39
87.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 39 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
88.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+13
88.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 13 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
87.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
95.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16INT TD
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:356% → 1%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
94.2%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+18
94.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
50
-10
93.9%
PETERS, Eli rush for 10 yards to the FS40, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HEIDECKER, B.) 10 yards to the TOLEDO40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+1
94.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+38
99.1%
Eli Peters pass intercepted for a TD Mykal Walker return for 38 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.1%
PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY FS pass interference (FREE, Wylan) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
50
0
99.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
50
+5
99.0%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+21
99.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 21 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
98.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
98.8%
Eli Peters run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+1
98.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 3
OPP 17
-9
98.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Jasad Haynes for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:1999% → 100%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.4%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+11
99.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
99.5%
Josh Hokit run for 22 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.5%
Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
99.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.5%
Derrion Grim run for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+19
99.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 19 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.7%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 26 Art Thompkins fumbled, recovered by Toled Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
99.7%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-9
99.7%
Eli Peters sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 48 yds, downed at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+7
99.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Chris Coleman, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
99.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 14 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
99.8%
Ronnie Jones run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.8%
Ronnie Jones run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.7%
Ronnie Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-14
99.8%
Eli Peters sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
99.8%
Jameson Vest 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+15
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 3
50
0
99.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Chris ColemanSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 3
50
0
99.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sam Womack at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Rhett Blackman for 7 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+13
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Rhett BlackmanSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Mims) to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Rhett Blackman, broken up by Mykal WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 54 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Saevion Johnson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Saevion Johnson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds , Sam Womack returns for no gain to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:180% → 1%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
99.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 25 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Saevion Johnson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
99.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.7%
Saevion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:33
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q3 12:06
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 2:26
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 47 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com