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NEV

Nevada 44 at Toledo 63

TOL
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.7TOL 98.3%Mitchell Guadagni run for 34 yds for aTD (Jameson Vest KICK)AWAY 44 - HOME 63 · Q4 7:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:26 · Mitchell Guadagni run for 34 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Pregame prior+3.1Home team on offense+29.6Score differential+17.5Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:24: Toa Taua run for 31 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +8.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:15: Kelton Moore run for 23 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +13.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 10:26: Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 26 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +9.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:11: Toa Taua run for 66 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +12.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:27: Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 20 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +11.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:44NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:44NEV 4th & 1 at TOL 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:44TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:07NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:35NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:55TOL 4th & 7 at NEV 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:08NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:14TOL 4th & 5 at NEV 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:14NEV 4th & 15 at NEV 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:06TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:17NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:22TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:51NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:44NEV 4th & 9 at TOL 35, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:26NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:15TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 45, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:44NEV 4th & 5 at midfield, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:33TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:44NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:24NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:08TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:17TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:15NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:26TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:11NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:27TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:49TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:04NEV Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:26TOL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
74.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
74.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
74.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for no gain to the Nevad 32 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.2%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 13Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
74.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-5
74.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 8Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 15
OWN 8
+7
74.2%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
74.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:5574% → 75%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
74.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
74.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Reggie GilliamSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+11
74.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
75.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 38 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4925% → 28%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.6%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (Ty Gangi) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
74.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
74.6%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
74.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 3 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
74.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 9 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
74.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+34
74.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 34 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
74.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan HenleySimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+17
74.2%
Toa Taua run for 17 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
73.9%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.9%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.1%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.8%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
72.4%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+4
72.3%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
72.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 6 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
71.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 51 yds, downed at the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5028% → 24%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
71.8%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
71.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-2
71.8%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+9
75.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Desmond Phillips blocked by Desmond Phillips Reggie Gilliam return for 9 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3225% → 24%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
74.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+11
75.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 11 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
74.4%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
75.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 40 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 15 Danzel McKinley-Lewis fumbled, recovered by Nevad Jomon DotsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:3126% → 30%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
74.2%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-6
74.4%
Ty Gangi sacked by Tuzar Skipper for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+22
69.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 22 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
75.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
76.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
76.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 3 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan Henley, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
76.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 9 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
75.3%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46 Devonte Lee fumbled, forced by DeDarallo Blue, recovered by Toled Richard OlekanmaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
77.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
77.5%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
77.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-5
76.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mitchell Berg) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
76.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 1:4923% → 34%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
77.5%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo (WOMACK, Samuel), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (WOMACK, Samuel) 15 yards to the NEVADA22, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
76.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
76.0%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
76.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+25
75.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 25 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
74.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
66.1%
Toa Taua run for 31 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:1471% → 78%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
71.4%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+20
72.5%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 20 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
73.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+19
72.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 19 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
73.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
73.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+9
71.6%
GUADAGNI, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (BROWN, Daniel) 9 yards to the NEVADA10, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
72.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
72.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.8%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
78.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 24 yds , Cody Thompson returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0479% → 79%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
50
+13
79.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jamal Turner for 13 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
79.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+11
79.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
79.4%
GUADAGNI, M. rush for 4 yards to the NEVADA19, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (RUBLE, Brock) 10 yards to the NEVADA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+5
79.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
78.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+10
78.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 10 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
78.9%
Jameson Vest 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
77.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Romeo Doubs) to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
78.0%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
78.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
78.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
79.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 26 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:1480% → 86%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
79.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+14
79.1%
Art Thompkins run for 14 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
80.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-1
80.2%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+27
86.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 27 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FG
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:1416% → 20%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
83.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 19 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
79.6%
Ramiz Ahmed 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4518% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
81.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 20 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+32
80.6%
Kelton Moore run for 32 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
66.7%
Kelton Moore run for 23 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4972% → 85%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
71.7%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Gabriel Sewell for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
70.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 18 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
73.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 10 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
74.0%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+13
73.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
74.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 9 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+26
84.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 26 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
71.4%
Toa Taua run for 66 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
73.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
73.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-3
74.5%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
72.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds, downed at the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
71.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
72.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
73.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
74.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
75.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-3
75.8%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Adam Lopez for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
73.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
72.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for no gain to the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
72.0%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
71.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
72.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+7
73.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 7 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
73.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 42 yds, downed at the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:3074% → 88%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
74.1%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Justin Brent for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 24 Mitchell Guadagni fumbled, recovered by Toled , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+14
73.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 14 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
74.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
75.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
76.8%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+21
76.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 21 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
88.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 20 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27MISSED FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:4313% → 14%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+25
86.8%
Toa Taua run for 25 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
84.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Devonte Lee for 8 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
83.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+7
83.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 7 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
83.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
83.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
84.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
86.3%
Ramiz Ahmed 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:5589% → 97%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
89.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
89.3%
GUADAGNI, M. pass incomplete to PHILLIPS, D., PENALTY NEVADA holding (SEWELL, Nephi) 10 yards to the NEVADA45, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
89.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 18 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
89.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 8 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
97.4%
Desmond Phillips pass complete to Cody Thompson for 19 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:454% → 10%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.5%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to MANNIX, McLane, QB hurry by TAAFE, Tyler, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (ROBINS, Berdale) 12 yards to the NEVADA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+16
96.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 16 yds to the Nevad 29 TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
96.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton MooreSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
96.3%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+28
96.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 28 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-6
95.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+16
96.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 16 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
95.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+19
95.3%
Toa Taua run for 19 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) NEVADA Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:3795% → 98%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.7%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
94.6%
GUADAGNI, M. pass incomplete to ROSI, Drew, PENALTY NEVADA offside defense (PETERSON, Dom) 5 yards to the NEVADA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
98.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 34 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 31INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.6%
GANGI, Ty pass intercepted by ROBINSON,Kahlil at the TOLEDO49, ROBINSON,Kahlil return to the NEVADA30 (GANGI, Ty), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (BLUE, DeDarallo) 15 yards to the NEVADA40, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Tyson Williams for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
96.3%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
96.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+4
96.3%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
96.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 7 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+3
96.0%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Richard Olekanma return for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
98.7%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
98.7%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Nevad 47 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-8
99.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Sewell at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 33DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:251% → 2%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
98.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 25 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 5
50
0
98.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 5
50
0
98.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 34END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.7%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+10
99.7%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-5
99.7%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:15
Kelton Moore run for 23 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q3 10:11
Toa Taua run for 66 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 1:27
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 20 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com