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ME

Maine 5 at Central Michigan 17

CMU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:55 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 8:13: MAINE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Maine 31 for a 1ST down — CMU win probability +5.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:59: Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:52: Timeout MAINE, clock 11:52 — CMU win probability +5.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:25: Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +8.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 6:23: Jack Sheldon punt blocked by Richard Carr blocked by Richard Carr Richard Carr return for no gain for a TD — ME win probability +5.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ME made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01CMU 4th & 6 at ME 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:39ME 4th & 5 at ME 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:58CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:23ME 4th & 19 at ME 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:22CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:33ME 4th & 1 at CMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:29CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:59ME 4th & 5 at ME 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:52CMU 4th & 10 at ME 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:18ME 4th & 15 at ME 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−6.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00ME 4th & 24 at CMU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−7.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:18ME 4th & 13 at ME 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:16CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:24ME 4th & 2 at CMU 21, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%−1.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−10.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:25ME 4th & 17 at ME 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:05CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.1%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:21ME 4th & 21 at CMU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:23CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:23ME 4th & 17 at CMU 36, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−2.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:26CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:59CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:25CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
69.7%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
69.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
-4
69.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 46 yds , Micah Wright returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Maine 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
69.5%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 10 yds to the Maine 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
69.5%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 7 yds to the Maine 34Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-11
69.5%
Chris Ferguson sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 11 yards to the Maine 23 MAINE Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the Maine 23Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+5
69.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Maine 28Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
69.6%
David Gelb punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
69.4%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete to CHILDRESS, B., PENALTY MAINE roughing passer (Mitchell, Charl) 15 yards to the CMU47, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
69.6%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Kayon Whitaker for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+7
69.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the Maine 49Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
69.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
69.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
69.0%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 16 yds to the Maine 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
68.9%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 35Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
69.0%
Earnest Edwards run for 2 yds to the Maine 37Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+4
69.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Devin Young for 4 yds to the Maine 41Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
69.1%
David Gelb punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
68.7%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Alejandro Oregon and Jamehl Wiley for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 0
0
68.5%
PENALTY MAINE unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY CMU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
68.6%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+11
68.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 11 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
68.2%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 9Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
68.4%
Earnest Edwards run for no gain to the Maine 9Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+27
68.6%
Ramon Jefferson run for 27 yds to the Maine 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
67.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Maine 37Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
68.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-10
68.3%
Isaiah Robinson sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 10 yards to the Maine 27Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
68.8%
David Gelb punt for 59 yds, downed at the CMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
67.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 13Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
67.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 11
OWN 13
-5
67.2%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Sterling Sheffield for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
66.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:2434% → 36%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
65.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+11
65.7%
Earnest Edwards run for 11 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
65.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+1
66.1%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+16
65.9%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 16 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
64.5%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Devin Young for 12 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.5%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Micah Wright, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
64.5%
Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
65.1%
Isaiah Robinson run for 3 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
66.3%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
66.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+1
65.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 5
OWN 6
-3
65.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
65.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds , Micah Wright returns for no gain to the Maine 3 MAINE Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the Maine 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
63.3%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for a loss of 6 yards to the Maine 39Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 16
OWN 39
-4
64.7%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Maine 35Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+15
65.9%
Robinson, Isaia pass incomplete, PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
50
0
62.9%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
50
+24
63.3%
Isaiah Robinson pass intercepted Da'Quaun Jamison return for 24 yds to the Maine 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:1468% → 76%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
68.3%
MAINE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Maine 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
68.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Cameron Cole for 9 yds to the Maine 22Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+10
68.7%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete to CHILDRESS, B., PENALTY MAINE pass interference 10 yards to the MAINE12, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
68.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the Maine 5Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
75.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Maine 25 Ramon Jefferson fumbled, forced by Sean Bunting, recovered by Maine Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.1%
Earnest Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 23Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+14
73.8%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 14 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Julian Dunn for no gain to the Maine 37Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
72.3%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Joe Fitzpatrick for a loss of 3 yards to the Maine 34Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+8
73.7%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Devin Young for 8 yds to the Maine 42Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
72.9%
David Gelb punt for 34 yds, downed at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:5974% → 73%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+37
73.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 37 yds to the Maine 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
76.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the Maine 39Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
75.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
74.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
73.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:2726% → 24%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
73.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 6 yds to the Maine 14Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-3
73.6%
Devin Young run for 7 yds to the Maine 21 MAINE Penalty, personal foul (Earnest Edwards) to the Maine 11Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-10
73.8%
Isaiah Robinson sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 10 yards to the Maine 1Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 17
OWN 1
+2
74.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Maine 3Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 15
OWN 3
+15
76.4%
David Gelb punt for 35 yds , Jamil Sabbagh returns for 15 yds to the Maine 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FG
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0978% → 81%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
77.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+41
80.9%
Ryan Tice 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:0023% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
77.3%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 20 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
76.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Da'Quaun Jamison) to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
75.3%
Isaiah Robinson sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+15
76.4%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 15 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
75.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
74.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 14 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
74.0%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 14
OPP 16
-10
79.1%
Isaiah Robinson sacked by Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 10 yards to the CMich 26 Isaiah Robinson fumbled, recovered by Maine Isaiah Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 24
OPP 26
0
80.4%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 24
OPP 26
+43
82.2%
Kenny Doak 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Jonathan Ward return for 3 yds to the Maine 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
82.9%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 46Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+5
82.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Deshawn Stevens return for 5 yds to the Maine 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.6%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 1 yd to the Maine 26Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
81.6%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Micah WrightSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
82.2%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Drew Belcher) to the Maine 22Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
82.5%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Micah WrightSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
82.9%
David Gelb punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamil Sabbagh at the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Damon TerrySimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
82.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Cameron Cole for 8 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-1
82.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
81.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 20FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:2817% → 24%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
82.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Maine 17Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
82.8%
Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Maine 21Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+21
83.0%
Ramon Jefferson run for 21 yds to the Maine 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
81.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 12 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
80.8%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
80.8%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Micah WrightSimilar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+14
81.0%
Isaiah Robinson run for 14 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.7%
Isaiah Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
79.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for 8 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
80.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
76.2%
Kenny Doak 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5981% → 95%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
81.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 8 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
81.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
81.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 1 yd to the CMich 32 for a 1ST down MAINE Penalty, personal foul (Sterling Sheffield) to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
83.2%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete to HESSBROOK, L., PENALTY MAINE pass interference (Patterson, Mann) 14 yards to the MAINE39, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
83.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 6 yds to the Maine 33Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+12
84.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 12 yds to the Maine 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-8
84.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the Maine 19 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Kumehnnu Gwilly) to the Maine 29Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 18
OPP 29
+2
83.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the Maine 27Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 16
OPP 27
-5
83.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Shakir Carr) to the Maine 32Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 21
OPP 32
+4
83.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the Maine 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+23
86.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Tony Poljan for 23 yds to the Maine 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
92.8%
Jefferson, Ramo rush for 24 yards to the MAINE49 (SWAIN, Tyjuan), PENALTY MAINE holding (Belcher, Drew) 10 yards to the MAINE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
92.9%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Jaquan Blair, broken up by Nate Brisson-FastSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+3
93.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Devin Young for 3 yds to the Maine 18Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
93.1%
David Gelb punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FUMBLE
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
94.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (George Douglas) to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
94.7%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
94.4%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 6 yds to the CMich 38 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Jamil Sabbagh) to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
94.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
94.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
94.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
94.3%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 37 Jonathan Ward fumbled, recovered by Maine Sterling Sheffield , return for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.5%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
94.5%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 11
OPP 38
-10
94.6%
Robinson, Isaia pass complete to Belcher, Drew for 10 yards to the CMU28 (APSEY, Trevor), PENALTY MAINE holding (Docos, Gunnar) 10 yards to the CMU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 21
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
95.0%
David Gelb punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jamil Sabbagh at the CMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3896% → 91%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
96.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-8
96.1%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
95.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
90.8%
Jack Sheldon punt blocked by Richard Carr blocked by Richard Carr Richard Carr return for no gain for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
88.4%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Micah Wright for 24 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
86.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Joe Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.4%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Devin Young, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-7
84.8%
Isaiah Robinson sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 17
OPP 36
0
88.9%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 17
OPP 36
+11
89.8%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Devin Young for 11 yds to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 3:0494% → 96%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
94.3%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
94.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
96.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-3
96.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 28INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
94.8%
Isaiah Robinson pass complete to Drew Belcher for 19 yds to the Maine 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.0%
Isaiah Robinson pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+24
94.2%
Isaiah Robinson pass intercepted Malik Fountain return for 24 yds to the Maine 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29Uncategorized
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 22Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-1
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:25
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 6:59
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
+6.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 8:13
MAINE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Maine 31 for a 1ST down
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com