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EMU

Eastern Michigan 28 at Buffalo 35

BUF
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Kevin Marks run for no gain to the EMich 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense+6.3Pregame prior+8.5Score differential+2.7Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:42: Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 70 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:03: Kevin Marks run for 2 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +8.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Shaq Vann run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +9.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 12:00: Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 75 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +9.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:42: Mike Glass III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:45EMU 4th & 3 at BUF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:04EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 6 at EMU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−1.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−7.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:53BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 17, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38EMU 4th & 1 at BUF 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00EMU 4th & 15 at BUF 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:23BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 23, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:47EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:00EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:56BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−1.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:55EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:24EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:45BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:28BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:54EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:42BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:26EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:03BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:00EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:00BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:42EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1561% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
61.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
61.3%
Isaiah King run for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
61.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
61.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
61.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+45
61.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 45 yds to the EMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.3%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 31 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.7%
UB 92 now wearing 41, [SGUN], PENALTY EMU false start (SOW, Sidy) 5 yards to the EMU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
62.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
62.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 13 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
62.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
62.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY EMU false start (NIELSEN, Steve) 5 yards to the EMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 14
OWN 38
0
62.6%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the EMich 38Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+19
62.7%
Tyler Wiegers run for 19 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
62.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
62.3%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
62.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-12
62.5%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Jordan Collier for a loss of 12 yards to the Buff 44 Tyler Wiegers fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:4465% → 71%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
65.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
65.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 7 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
65.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
65.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+4
64.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 4 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
65.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+17
65.2%
Kevin Marks run for 17 yds to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2431% → 30%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Ian EriksenSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
69.5%
Tyler Wiegers run for 5 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+16
69.6%
Jake Julien punt for 47 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 16 yds to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 0:5171% → 71%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
71.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
70.8%
Kevin Marks run for 12 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
71.6%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
72.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
71.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
72.2%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+6
71.5%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+16
71.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 16 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
72.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
72.3%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
71.8%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the EMich 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
71.4%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the EMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
71.9%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+3
72.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 3 yds to the EMich 15 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+10
72.3%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Isaac Holder for 10 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
71.6%
Breck Turner run for 2 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
71.7%
Mike Glass III sacked by Chuck Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 24Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
72.5%
Jake Julien punt for 68 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 7 yds to the Buff 31 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
73.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
74.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+2
73.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 2 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+6
73.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 63 yds , Blake Banham returns for 6 yds to the EMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:4625% → 31%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
75.2%
Willie Parker run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 24Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+76
69.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 76 yds for a TD EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 8 (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
75.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 70 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
68.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 75 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2370% → 79%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
69.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 19 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
71.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 6 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+27
71.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 27 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
71.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
71.9%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (O'HAGAN, James) 5 yards to the EMU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+3
71.5%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+13
71.0%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to RUSHING, George (McGILL, Kevin), PENALTY EMU pass interference (McGILL, Kevin) 13 yards to the EMU2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.2%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 2:0322% → 32%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Breck Turner for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
77.3%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 15 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
76.7%
Breck Turner run for 6 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
75.8%
Mike Glass III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+18
76.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 18 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
74.9%
Mike Glass III run for 5 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
76.3%
Mike Glass III run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
77.4%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+9
79.1%
Shaq Vann run for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.7%
Mike Glass III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
77.7%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Blake BanhamSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+11
79.0%
Mike Glass III run for 11 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
77.7%
[SGUN], GLASS, Mike pass incomplete to DRUMMOND, Dylan, PENALTY UB pass interference (LEWIS, Cameron) 3 yards to the UB2, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.7%
Mike Glass III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 1 Mike Glass III fumbled, recovered by EMich Mike Glass III , return for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.4%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
70.2%
Shaq Vann run for 6 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
70.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 7 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
69.1%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
68.4%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+23
69.4%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 23 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
66.4%
Mike Glass III run for 6 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
66.0%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-11
67.4%
Mike Glass III sacked by Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
71.3%
Jake Julien punt for 35 yds, downed at the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
72.5%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to OSBORN, K.J. for 26 yards to the UB29 (MOODY, Justin), PENALTY UB ineligible downfield on pass (AWOSIKA, Kayode) 1 yards to the UB2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+3
72.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
72.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+2
71.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
72.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
72.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
72.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for no gain to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+5
71.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 47 yds , Blake Banham returns for 5 yds to the EMich 28 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (Ross Williams) to the EMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15FUMBLE
13 plays · 60 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
72.8%
Mike Glass III sacked by Chibueze Onwuka and Chuck Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 21Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
73.4%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Shaq Vann for 3 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+20
74.4%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Line Latu for 5 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Malcolm Koonce) to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
70.7%
Breck Turner run for 2 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+11
70.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 11 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
69.5%
Breck Turner run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
68.9%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 8 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
67.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 7 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-1
67.3%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 14 yds to the Buff 9 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Steve Nielsen) to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-10
67.3%
[SGUN], WIEGERS, Tyler pass complete to BANHAM, Blake for 2 yards to the UB18 (PATTERSON, Jame), PENALTY EMU illegal block 10 yards to the UB30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 16
OPP 30
-7
69.7%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Chuck Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 23
OPP 37
+11
72.5%
Mike Glass III run for 11 yds to the Buff 15 Mike Glass III fumbled, forced by Chuck Harris, recovered by Buff Tyrone HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2982% → 81%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
81.7%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
83.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-11
82.2%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to MABRY, Tyler for 10 yards to the UB32 (PICKETT, Jaylen;McGEE, Freddie), PENALTY UB personal foul (MARKS, Kevin) 11 yards to the UB11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+4
81.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
80.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
77.3%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
76.5%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Arthur Jackson III, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
79.8%
Jake Julien punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5284% → 94%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+75
93.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 75 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Breck Turner for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
90.5%
Breck Turner run for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
91.3%
Tyler Wiegers run for 5 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
91.4%
Jake Julien punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 32 , Rodney Scott III returns for no gain to the Buff 32 Rodney Scott III fumbled, recovered by Buff Rodney Scott IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
94.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
94.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+15
95.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Jaylen Pickett) to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+10
95.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
95.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
95.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the EMich 20Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
95.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the EMich 20Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
94.5%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the EMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.0%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew Sexton, broken up by Joey BanksSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
94.0%
Mike Glass III run for 15 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.5%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
93.5%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew Sexton, broken up by Chuck HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
93.8%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
94.2%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Arthur Jackson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2997% → 98%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+5
96.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
96.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 8 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+2
98.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the EMich 11 Emmanuel Reed fumbled, forced by Turan Rush, recovered by EMich Hunter AndrewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 2:423% → 16%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
97.3%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 6 yds to the EMich 17Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+3
97.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 3 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+2
97.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.2%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
97.2%
Mike Glass III run for 10 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
97.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Isaac Holder for 7 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+11
97.0%
Ian Eriksen run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
50
-3
96.9%
Mike Glass III sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+16
97.7%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 16 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
97.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 8 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+11
96.7%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 11 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
96.7%
Mike Glass III run for 17 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.2%
Mike Glass III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:2697% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-3
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:42
Mike Glass III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 0:00
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q4 12:00
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 75 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com