2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:40 · Josh Grant 23 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:01: LeVante Bellamy run for 40 yds for a TD (Josh Grant KICK) — DSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:16: Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:27: Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5DSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 15:00DSU 4th & 2 at DSU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 8:39DSU 4th & 4 at WMU 28, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%48% to convertField goalTheir call0.9%−<0.160% to makePunt0.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:16DSU 4th & 12 at DSU 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 0:40WMU 4th & 5 at DSU 6, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%91% to makePunt98.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:15DSU 4th & 7 at DSU 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 13:20DSU 4th & 3 at WMU 48, down 21Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:16DSU 4th & 5 at DSU 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 2:18WMU 4th & 22 at DSU 40, up 28Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.18% to convertField goal99.6%34% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:43DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 17, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 9:27DSU 4th & 2 at DSU 29, down 35Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:13DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 11, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:08WMU 4th & 7 at DSU 7, up 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 15:00DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 29, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:07DSU 4th & 10 at DSU 25, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:18DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 27, down 72Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 7:39WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 47, up 72Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:12WMU 4th & 7 at DSU 8, up 72Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%90% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 13:01WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:16WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:16WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:27WMU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:13WMU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:08WMU Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WMUDrive 2TD1 play · 40 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 3MISSED FG13 plays · 56 yds · 4:221% → 1%
Q1 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
99.3%
BLACK,K pass incomplete to KOLLIE,K, PENALTY WMU roughing passer (THOMAS, A.J.) 15 yards to the WMU44, 1ST DOWN DSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2399% → 99%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
99.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 14 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+13
99.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 13 yds to the DelSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+12
99.1%
WASSINK, JON pass incomplete to ARNETT, TYRON, dropped pass, PENALTY DSU pass interference (SELBY,K) 12 yards to the DSU29, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+12
99.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 12 yds to the DelSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds for a TD DELAWARE ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the DelSt 1 (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6MISSED FG5 plays · 26 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
99.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the DelSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 3 yds · 1:251% → 1%
DSUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q2 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
99.2%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Mike Waters for 3 yds to the WMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD11 plays · 86 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q2 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
99.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 4 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
99.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 11 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+20
99.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down DELAWARE ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the DelSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
99.7%
Jack McDaniels sacked by Najee Clayton for a loss of 7 yards to the DelSt 13 Jack McDaniels fumbled, recovered by DelSt Mike Waters , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+10
99.7%
Fidel Romo-Martinez punt for 54 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 10 yds to the WMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 32 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 5 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Drake Harris, broken up by Nigel BynumSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+19
99.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Luke Sanders for 19 yds to the DelSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-15
99.7%
WASSINK, JON pass complete to WATSON, K for 27 yards to the DSU0, clock 02:18, PENALTY WMU personal foul (KEENOY, JOHN) 15 yards to the DSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 24
OPP 42
+2
99.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 2 yds to the DelSt 40Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 22
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Kareem Davis at the DelSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
99.8%
WATERS,M rush for 1 yard to the DSU14 (GRACE, ALEX), PENALTY DSU holding (DERKS,M) 7 yards to the DSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 18
OWN 5
-2
99.8%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Taronn Selby for a loss of 2 yards to the DelSt 3Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+8
99.8%
Fidel Romo-Martinez punt for 44 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 8 yds to the WMich 25 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Stefan Claiborne) to the WMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+47
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 47 yds to the DelSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD14 plays · 81 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 8 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 10 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 10 yds to the DelSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Drake Harris for 6 yds to the DelSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-5
99.8%
WASSINK, JON pass incomplete to REED, JAYDEN, PENALTY WMU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the DSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+18
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 18 yds to the DelSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WMUDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 24Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+55
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 55 yds to the DelSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jayden Reed for 1 yd to the DelSt 20Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-3
99.9%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the DelSt 28 Chase Brown fumbled, forced by Devin Smith, recovered by WMich Chase BrownSimilar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+5
99.9%
WASSINK, JON pass incomplete to ARNETT, TYRON, PENALTY DSU offside (BOWMAN,D) 5 yards to the DSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 23 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WMUDrive 18FG7 plays · 20 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 3:38
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+14
99.9%
MUSSAT, Alex pass incomplete to WATSON, K, PENALTY DSU pass interference (BYNUM,N) 14 yards to the DSU9, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Fidel Romo-Martinez punt for 55 yds , Tyron Arnett returns for 12 yds to the WMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD8 plays · 72 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
BROWN, CHASE rush for loss of 3 yards to the DSU28 (JONES,J;CASTELL,J), PENALTY DSU face mask (JONES,J) 13 yards to the DSU12, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 21PUNT RETURN TD6 plays · 0 yds · 1:010% → 0%
DSUDrive 22FUMBLE TD3 plays · -8 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
100.0%
Bryant Dallas run for a loss of 5 yards Bryant Dallas fumbled, forced by Andre Carter, recovered by WMich Patrick Lupro , return for 17 yds DELAWARE ST Penalty, (2 Yards) to the DelSt 1 (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:18
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Fidel Romo-Martinez punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:39
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for 36 yds , Kareem Davis returns for no gain to the DelSt 11 Kareem Davis fumbled, recovered by WMich Hunter BroersmaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26FG5 plays · 3 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 27END OF GAME6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:16
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 13:01
LeVante Bellamy run for 40 yds for a TD (Josh Grant KICK)
-0.1
TD · Q3 9:27
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
+0.1