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CMU

Central Michigan 16 at Northern Illinois 24

NIU
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.6NIU 76.8%Ryan Tice 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q2 12:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:54 · Ryan Tice 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+26.2Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:30: Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:09: Tommy Lazzaro run for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:43: Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CMU win probability +19.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:43: Ryan Tice kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — NIU win probability +8.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:51: Andrew Gantz 36 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +9.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:30NIU 4th & 3 at CMU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:05CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:07NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 47, tied
    Close callWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:32CMU 4th & 7 at NIU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:32NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:54CMU 4th & 9 at NIU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:54NIU 4th & 26 at NIU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:40CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:25NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:18CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:04NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:51NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 19, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.4%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−11.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:47CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:01CMU 4th & 2 at NIU 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−2.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−7.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 4:03NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:02NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:30NIU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:09CMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:43CMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.7%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+24
84.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 24 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
84.7%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
84.7%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
84.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
84.7%
Matt Ference punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
84.1%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Cameron Cole for 13 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
84.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 15 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
84.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-7
84.0%
Tony Poljan sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+8
84.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
84.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.5%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
83.5%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass intercepted by BUNTING, Sean at the CMU22, BUNTING, Sean return to the CMU22, PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the NIU47, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
83.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Ty Harmston) to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+3
83.5%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
83.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 3 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+6
83.5%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
83.5%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
82.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 23 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 13Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 17
OWN 13
+3
82.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+5
82.6%
Tony Poljan run for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-1
82.7%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 35 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 6 yds to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · -42 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
82.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-5
82.5%
Anthony Thompson pass complete to Jordan Nettles for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
81.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 14
OWN 47
-7
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoIll Matt FerenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1120% → 19%
Q1 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.5%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
80.5%
Tony Poljan run for 2 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.7%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Jonathan Ward, broken up by Jalen EmbrySimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
80.7%
Michael Armstrong 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
81.1%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
81.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 1 yd to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
80.7%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+6
80.7%
Matt Ference pass intercepted Troy Brown return for 6 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:5321% → 23%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
78.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+7
78.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 7 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
78.8%
Tony Poljan run for 7 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
78.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
77.8%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
78.4%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 1 yd to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
76.8%
Ryan Tice 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
77.4%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-8
77.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the NoIll 28 NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal block (Luke Shively) to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+8
77.2%
Marcus Childers run for 8 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-13
76.7%
Marcus Childers sacked by Malik Fountain for a loss of 13 yards to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
76.4%
Matt Ference punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
74.0%
Devon Spalding run for 9 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
73.8%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
74.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the NoIll 21 Kumehnnu Gwilly fumbled, forced by Lance Deveaux Jr., recovered by NoIll Kyle PughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:3475% → 81%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
75.4%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
75.5%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
74.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
75.6%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
76.8%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
76.7%
HALL, Rodney rush for 3 yards to the NIU46 (BRISSON-FAST, N;STANITZEK, M.), PENALTY NIU holding (JONES, Marcus) 10 yards to the NIU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
75.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+37
75.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 37 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Marcus JonesSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
77.7%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+9
77.1%
Marcus Jones run for 9 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
77.8%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
80.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 14 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:2322% → 20%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 15 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
76.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
76.4%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-8
78.5%
Tony Poljan sacked by Ben LeRoy for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
79.9%
Jack Sheldon punt blocked by Sutton Smith blocked by Sutton SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2981% → 88%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
80.8%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
80.8%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+15
80.2%
Marcus Childers run for 9 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding (6 Yards) to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 7 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:3213% → 14%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
86.8%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Cameron Cole for 6 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
86.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
85.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
85.8%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 11 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
85.3%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
85.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
85.2%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
86.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
86.6%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+12
86.0%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
87.3%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
87.3%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-3
86.7%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
86.1%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jamil Sabbagh at the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Damon Terry, broken up by Trayshon FosterSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
86.6%
Tony Poljan pass incomplete to Damon Terry, broken up by Trayshon FosterSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
87.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 41 yds , Jalen Embry returns for no gain to the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5987% → 96%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
87.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
87.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 6 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.9%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
50
+48
87.9%
Tre Harbison run for 48 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.9%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the CMich 2Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:136% → 15%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
93.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
93.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
93.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 6 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
93.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+15
93.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 15 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
93.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+8
92.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 8 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
92.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 20 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
88.6%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
88.6%
Jordan Nettles run for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
88.1%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
88.8%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
88.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+4
88.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
87.8%
Matt Ference punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:1712% → 35%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
88.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
88.0%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+8
88.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
87.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+16
87.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 16 yds to the NORTHERNIL 40 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
86.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
86.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Drayton Law for 10 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Drayton LawSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
85.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+13
86.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 13 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
84.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+7
84.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for 7 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by Jalen EmbrySimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5280% → 91%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
79.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
80.5%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
80.7%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+35
80.6%
Tre Harbison run for 35 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
83.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
83.3%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+2
82.0%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
91.4%
Andrew Gantz 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0012% → 9%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
88.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 4 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
88.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-9
89.3%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Ben LeRoy and Matt Lorbeck for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
91.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:5394% → 95%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
93.7%
Tre Harbison run for 11 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
94.3%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
95.6%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 5
50
-5
95.9%
Marcus Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25INT
15 plays · 66 yds · 0:005% → 8%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
95.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 10 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
94.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
94.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 8 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+23
95.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 23 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+8
94.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+3
94.1%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Damon TerrySimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
92.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 11 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
92.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Vinny Labus return for 6 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:43
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.9
FG · Q4 5:51
Andrew Gantz 36 yd FG GOOD
+9.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:43
Ryan Tice kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com