2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreMORG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:53 · Nicholas O'Shea punt for 45 yds, downed at the Akron 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:39: Nick Gasser 24 yd FG GOOD — MORG win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:56: Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:09: Nick Gasser 30 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MORG made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 15:00MORG 4th & 14 at MORG 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 9:39AKR 4th & 7 at MORG 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%91% to makePunt98.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:49MORG 4th & 23 at MORG 4, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 0:19AKR 4th & 9 at MORG 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%72% to makePunt98.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:52MORG 4th & 7 at MORG 46, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 4:09AKR 4th & 6 at MORG 13, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%85% to makePunt97.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:09MORG 4th & 3 at MORG 42, down 20Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:02AKR 4th & 2 at MORG 37, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%57% to convertField goal98.9%−0.140% to makePunt98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:16MORG 4th & 16 at MORG 19, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 9:10MORG 4th & 14 at MORG 34, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:46MORG 4th & 12 at MORG 29, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:25AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 43, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 27, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:53MORG 4th & 12 at MORG 20, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:03AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 40, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:30MORG 4th & 1 at MORG 41, down 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:31AKR 4th & 5 at MORG 35, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%42% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.145% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MORG made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 5:54AKR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:56AKR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34AKR Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:16AKR Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:10AKR Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:11MORG Touchdown, down 35 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMORGDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
AKRDrive 2FG13 plays · 30 yds · 3:4899% → 99%
Q1 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 0
0
98.8%
NELSON, Kato pass complete to WILLIAMS, Andre for 10 yards to the MSU0, clock 10:43, PENALTY MSU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY AKRON unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
98.9%
NELSON, Kato pass complete to STEWART, Nate for 9 yards to the MSU1 (SMALL,Donte), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the MSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+13
98.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 13 yds to the MorgS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 3INT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
AKRDrive 4TD5 plays · 35 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
MORGDrive 5PUNT7 plays · -13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-11
98.7%
GOLATT JR.DJ pass complete to BAILEY,Manasseh for loss of 1 yard to the MSU18, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MSU face mask 11 yards to the MSU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 19
OWN 8
0
98.7%
Golatt Jr.Dj pass incomplete to Manasseh Bailey, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 23
OWN 4
0
98.7%
Golatt Jr.Dj pass incomplete to Corey Holmes, broken up by Alvin DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6TD3 plays · 36 yds · 0:3999% → 99%
MORGDrive 7FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
98.8%
Golatt Jr.Dj run for 7 yds to the MorgS 37 Golatt Jr.Dj fumbled, forced by Alvin Davis, recovered by Akron Andy Jean-BaptisteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8MISSED FG6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brian Reinke for 4 yds to the MorgS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 9INT4 plays · 19 yds · 0:191% → 1%
AKRDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
98.8%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MorgS 33 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by MorgS Ayodeji AgbeleseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q2 12:52
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Nicholas O'Shea punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12FG13 plays · 72 yds · 5:5399% → 99%
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
98.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 8 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
98.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Council for 8 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
98.7%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to MORRIS, Jonah, PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU17, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-10
98.7%
EDWARDS, Van rush for 5 yards to the MSU13 (WHITAKER,Damare;AGBELESE,AJ), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the MSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 21
OPP 28
+15
98.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 15 yds to the MorgS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.9%
GOLATT JR.DJ pass incomplete to BALDWIN,Daylen, PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the MSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD7 plays · 67 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
MORGDrive 15END OF HALF3 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AKRDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.8%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Andre, PENALTY MSU roughing passer 15 yards to the MSU34, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 34 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AKRDrive 18TD5 plays · 55 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.8%
NELSON, Kato sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AKRON37 (FRANCOIS,Marvin), PENALTY MSU face mask 15 yards to the MSU40, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
99.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 9 yds to the MorgS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 6 yds to the MorgS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MORGDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:46
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Nicholas O'Shea punt for 61 yds , Shawn Featherstone returns for no gain to the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Donte SmallSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+25
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 25 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-2
99.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by Taylor Thompson and Rico Kennedy for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:090% → 0%
AKRDrive 24INT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MORGDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Alex Ramart pass complete to Brandon Junk for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 27DOWNS5 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Jack McCracken for 15 yds to the MorgS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+1
100.0%
Alex Ramart pass complete to Brandon Junk for 1 yd to the MorgS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 29TD12 plays · 66 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
100.0%
HARRIS,DeAndre pass incomplete to BALDWIN,Daylen (HOOKS, Jalen), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+16
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Darian Pollion for 16 yds to the MorgS 40Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+17
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Manasseh Bailey for 17 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
100.0%
DeAndre Harris pass complete to Manasseh Bailey for 14 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
100.0%
HARRIS,DeAndre pass incomplete to BAILEY,Manasseh, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 8 yards to the AKRON2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 30END OF GAME2 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:34
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 3:56
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
+0.3
FG · Q2 4:09
Nick Gasser 30 yd FG GOOD
+0.3