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NAVY

Navy 28 at Tulane 29

TULN
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:58 · Ryan Wright punt for 53 yds , Jacob Springer returns for no gain to the Navy 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+6.4Home team on offense+11.8Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:26: Justin McMillan run for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:02: Malcolm Perry pass complete to Zach Abey for 37 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:47: Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 73 yds for a TD Timeout NAVY, clock 02:47 (Zach Abey pass to Taylor Jackson for Two-Point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +23.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:44: Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +34.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:27: Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 26 yds for a TD (Justin McMillan pass to Charles Jones II for Two-Point Conversion) — TULN win probability +52.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 8 at NAVY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:37TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:19NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:15TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:54NAVY 4th & 3 at TULN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:02NAVY 4th & 9 at TULN 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:53NAVY 4th & 1 at TULN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:40NAVY 4th & 14 at TULN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:27NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:42NAVY 4th & 3 at TULN 3, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−8.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:37TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:58TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:47TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.4%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:57TULN 4th & 8 at NAVY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−2.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−16.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:40NAVY 4th & 2 at TULN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−8.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−6.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:40NAVY 4th & 2 at TULN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−3.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−22.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:07NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 16, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−3.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 14:53TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:26TULN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:00TULN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:02NAVY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:47NAVY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:44NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:27TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.5 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    46.9%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
70.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+30
70.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 30 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
70.1%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
70.1%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
70.1%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
70.1%
Zachary Block punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
69.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
69.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+3
69.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 16
+9
69.8%
Owen White punt for 58 yds , Amare Jones returns for 9 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
69.6%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+3
69.3%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
69.2%
Ryan Wright punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
68.9%
Zach Abey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
69.0%
Tazh Maloy run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
69.1%
Zach Abey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+9
69.4%
Owen White punt for 55 yds , Amare Jones returns for 9 yds to the Tulan 28 TULANE Penalty, illegal block (Marvin Moody) to the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Amare Jones run for no gain to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Ryan Wright punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:5233% → 33%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
67.5%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
67.6%
Tre Walker run for 2 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+3
67.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
68.1%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
67.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 26 yds to the Tulan 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
67.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 13Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
67.3%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
66.3%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
66.9%
Bennett Moehring 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0968% → 74%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
68.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 17 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
68.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Terren Encalade for 8 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+55
73.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 55 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 7:1327% → 29%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.6%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
72.5%
Nelson Smith run for 10 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
72.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
71.9%
Nelson Smith run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
71.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 13 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
71.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
70.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
71.3%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
71.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.6%
Mike Martin run for no gain to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
70.7%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-6
71.4%
Zach Abey sacked by Larry Bryant for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+48
71.1%
Bennett Moehring 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:0770% → 81%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
70.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 15 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
71.2%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+12
71.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 12 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+28
72.3%
Justin McMillan run for 28 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
72.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 7 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
80.5%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5920% → 18%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
79.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
79.8%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.5%
Owen White punt for 46 yds, downed at the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1582% → 88%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
81.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 19 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
82.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+52
88.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 52 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:1413% → 12%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry, broken up by Thakarius KeyesSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Owen White punt for 57 yds , Amare Jones returns for 5 yds to the Tulan 30 TULANE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
89.8%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
87.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
87.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for no gain to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
87.3%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
90.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Terren Encalade for 7 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-2
90.8%
Corey Dauphine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+36
90.4%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted Sean Williams return for 36 yds to the Tulan 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0714% → 15%
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
86.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.3%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Tulan 5Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
87.2%
Mychal Cooper run for 2 yds to the Tulan 3Similar
Q3 9:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+19
84.9%
Bennett Moehring 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
87.9%
Darius Bradwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
87.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+13
87.3%
Justin McMillan run for 13 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
88.4%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
88.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-8
87.9%
Justin McMillan sacked by Austin Talbert-Loving for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 38Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+21
86.7%
Ryan Wright punt for 44 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 21 yds to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:3212% → 22%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.6%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+22
87.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to CJ Williams for 22 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
87.0%
Zach Abey pass complete to CJ Williams for 2 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+37
77.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Zach Abey for 37 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
83.8%
Corey Dauphine run for 3 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
83.7%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Terren EncaladeSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
82.9%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jabril ClewisSimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Ryan Wright punt for 53 yds , Jacob Springer returns for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
58.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 73 yds for a TD Timeout NAVY, clock 02:47 (Zach Abey pass to Taylor Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21MISSED FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 5:5063% → 64%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 14 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
64.9%
Darius Bradwell run for 5 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
66.7%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
65.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Terren Encalade for 4 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
65.0%
Darius Bradwell run for 3 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
67.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darius Bradwell for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+6
64.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Charles Jones II for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
66.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darius Bradwell for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
67.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 5 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+5
69.0%
[Shotgun], PENALTY NAVY offside defense (FAGOT, Diego) 5 yards to the NAVY27, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
69.0%
Darius Bradwell run for 11 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
69.0%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
69.0%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Will WallaceSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
67.3%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
64.4%
Merek Glover 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 8:1343% → 87%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
56.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to OJ Davis for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
55.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
56.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Tre Walker) to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+26
58.1%
Zach Abey pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 26 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
51.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
51.7%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
52.3%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+13
53.8%
Zach Abey pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 13 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
48.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Ryan Mitchell, broken up by Donnie Lewis Jr.Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
48.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+3
50.5%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+4
53.4%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Tulan 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
48.3%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
48.3%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
13.4%
Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:1124% → 84%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
23.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 14 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
26.0%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Terren Encalade for 6 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
27.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+7
26.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 7 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
29.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Terren Encalade for 10 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
31.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 8 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+26
83.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 26 yds for a TD (Justin McMillan pass to Charles Jones II for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:2031% → 25%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry, broken up by Taris ShenallSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
69.1%
Zach Abey sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 16 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by Navy Jake Hawk , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
73.2%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+5
74.6%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 21 Zach Abey fumbled, forced by Patrick Johnson, recovered by Navy Chris GesellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
84.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
84.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:27
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 26 yds for a TD (Justin McMillan pass to Charles Jones II for Two-Point Conversion)
+52
TD · Q4 3:44
Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-34.8
TD · Q3 2:47
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 73 yds for a TD Timeout NAVY, clock 02:47 (Zach Abey pass to Taylor Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com