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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:29 · David Pindell pass incomplete to Tyler Davis
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:06: David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +1.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:53: Michael Tarbutt kickoff for 64 yds , Isaiah Wright return for 99 yds for a TD (TEAM PAT MISSED) Cole Lerch fumbled, — TEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:24: Todd Centeio run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:19: Todd Centeio pass complete to Chris Myarick for 5 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:38: David Pindell pass intercepted for a TD Christian Braswell return for 8 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 6:53CONN 4th & 3 at TEM 37, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.0%53% to convertField goal5.9%−0.140% to makePunt5.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:53CONN 4th & 21 at TEM 45, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.29% to convertField goal5.7%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q2 10:29CONN 4th & 2 at TEM 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%57% to convertField goal6.9%−0.434% to makePunt7.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:57TEM 4th & 1 at CONN 1, up 20Close callKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.0%59% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%−0.694% to makePunt94.0%−2.0average punt
- Q2 2:38CONN 4th & 9 at TEM 38, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%32% to convertField goal2.1%−<0.138% to makePunt2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:55TEM 4th & 18 at CONN 40, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.113% to convertField goal99.1%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q3 5:40CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 45, down 40Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 1 at CONN 48, up 40Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:18CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 28, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 8:09CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 19, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:35TEM 4th & 6 at CONN 9, up 47Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%89% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:35CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 38, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 13:00TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:06CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.2%97% to makeGo for two6.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:24TEM Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:19TEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:38TEM Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20TEM Touchdown, up 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:09TEM Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1TD7 plays · 71 yds · 2:0097% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
3.3%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 30 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
3.3%
Jeremy Jennings run for 17 yds to the UConn 3 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, illegal block (Isaiah Wright) to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:544% → 5%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
3.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 3 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
3.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 9 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+27
3.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 12 yds to the UCONN 48 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, roughing passer (Shaun Bradley) to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+7
3.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 7 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT14 plays · 19 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
5.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 7 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+3
5.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 3 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-8
5.3%
David Pindell sacked by Isaiah Graham-Mobley for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 42Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+5
5.0%
PINDELL, David pass incomplete to MCLEAN, Aaron, PENALTY TEM offside (ROCHE,Quincy) 5 yards to the TEM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-8
5.1%
David Pindell sacked by Jyquis Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 45Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
5.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Delvon Randall at the Temp 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD6 plays · 92 yds · 2:1694% → 95%
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
6.2%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Tahj Herring-WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+63
6.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Randle Jones for 63 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
5.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Ryquell Armstead for 3 yds to the UConn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6DOWNS11 plays · 41 yds · 3:556% → 6%
Q2 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+15
5.7%
PINDELL, David pass incomplete to MCLEAN, Aaron, PENALTY TEM pass interference (GRAHAM-MOBLEY,I) 15 yards to the UCONN39, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
5.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 6 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+7
5.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Garrison Burnett for 7 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
5.9%
David Pindell pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 6 yds to the Temp 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7INT3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
CONNDrive 8INT8 plays · 39 yds · 0:006% → 7%
TEMDrive 9TD2 plays · 36 yds · 0:2494% → 97%
CONNDrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · -21 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the UConn 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Temp Chapelle RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1497% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12INT TD4 plays · -13 yds · 1:194% → 2%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
4.2%
Kevin Mensah run for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 17 Kevin Mensah fumbled, forced by Jimmy Hogan, recovered by UConn David PindellSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+8
1.6%
David Pindell pass intercepted for a TD Christian Braswell return for 8 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
1.7%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Delvon RandallSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
1.7%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Christian BraswellSimilar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 9
OPP 38
-8
1.7%
David Pindell sacked by Chapelle Russell and Dana Levine for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14FG9 plays · 53 yds · 0:5098% → 99%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
1.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Rob Ritrovato for 9 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
1.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Rob Ritrovato for 8 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+18
1.3%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 18 yds to the UConn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-13
1.9%
David Pindell run for 2 yds to the UConn 42 CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+13
1.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Dante Black for 13 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-2
1.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD5 plays · 87 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+32
1.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 32 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17INT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:20
2ND & 14
OWN 28
0
0.6%
David Pindell pass intercepted Benny Walls return for no gain to the UConn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
CONNDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
0.2%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 8 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the UConn 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UConn Steven KrajewskiSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Dante Black for 3 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-2
0.2%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Zach Mesday for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+1
0.2%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 43 yds , Travon Williams returns for 1 yd to the Temp 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+29
0.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Travon Williams for 29 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:09
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Travon Williams at the Temp 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24FG6 plays · 47 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:19
Todd Centeio pass complete to Chris Myarick for 5 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 2:38
David Pindell pass intercepted for a TD Christian Braswell return for 8 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)
-2.5
TD · Q1 7:06
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+1.8