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ECU

East Carolina 6 at Cincinnati 56

CIN
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2018 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.1CIN 97.9%Holton Ahlers pass complete to MydreonVines for 71 yds for a TD (Two-PointConversion failed)AWAY 6 - HOME 35 · Q2 8:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:13 · Holton Ahlers pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 71 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+27.2Home team on offense+20.8Score differential+17.8Blowout margin+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Garbage-time factor+4.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:46: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — ECU win probability +0.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:21: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 30 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:00: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:06: Charles McClelland run for 55 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:53: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 28 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:46ECU 4th & 20 at ECU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15CIN 4th & 3 at ECU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:06ECU 4th & 18 at ECU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:21ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:14ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:13CIN 4th & 1 at ECU 34, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:53ECU 4th & 6 at CIN 43, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:36CIN 4th & 1 at ECU 24, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18CIN 4th & 2 at ECU 25, up 36
    Close callWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:40ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 35, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:05ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:48CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 25, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:32ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 34, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:51CIN 4th & 5 at ECU 35, up 50
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:46CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:06CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:12CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:13ECU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:53CIN Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:05CIN Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:32CIN Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1489% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
88.7%
THOMAS, Tavion rush for 5 yards to the CIN42 (SUTTON, Devon), PENALTY CIN illegal formation 5 yards to the CIN32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+10
88.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 10 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+20
88.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 20 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
88.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 24 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
88.7%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
88.7%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-5
88.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
88.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Xavier Smith, broken up by Malik ClementsSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-13
88.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Marquise Copeland for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
88.2%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.2%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
88.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
88.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
88.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 11 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
88.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
88.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 2 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+3
88.2%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
88.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
87.3%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+12
87.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 12 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-12
87.4%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Marquise Copeland for a loss of 12 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 18
OWN 16
+1
87.7%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5488% → 90%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
87.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
87.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+20
87.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 20 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
87.7%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+30
89.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 30 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Arquon BushSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Jonn Young punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3390% → 93%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
89.8%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+57
92.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
92.6%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+9
92.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+16
92.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trace Christian for 16 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trace Christian, broken up by Jarell WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
92.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the Cincy 45 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by James Wiggins, recovered by Cincy Arquon Bush , return for 8 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
96.6%
Charles McClelland run for 55 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:524% → 3%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.4%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
96.3%
AHLERS, Holton rush for 4 yards to the ECU32 (FITZ, Kimoni), PENALTY ECU holding (WINSTEAD, Peytn) 10 yards to the ECU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
96.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
96.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
96.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the ECaro 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Cameron JefferiesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5497% → 97%
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+27
97.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 27 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.0%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:522% → 2%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.9%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
97.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 71 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2098% → 99%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.6%
Charles McClelland run for 15 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
97.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 17 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Malick MbodjSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
97.7%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
97.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+20
97.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 20 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
97.7%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-15
97.7%
RIDDER, Desmond pass complete to DEGUARA, Josiah for 4 yards to the ECU9, out-of-bounds (CHARLES, Daniel), PENALTY CIN pass interference (ROLLINS, Jerron) 15 yards to the ECU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 24
OPP 28
+28
98.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 28 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 28 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
98.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Trevon Brown) to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+9
98.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy Henley, broken up by Arquon BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.8%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 0
+15
98.7%
RIDDER, Desmond rush for loss of 2 yards to the CIN46, out-of-bounds (HOLTON, Marcus), PENALTY CIN holding (ROBINSON, J.) 10 yards to the CIN38, PENALTY ECU unsportsmanlike conduct (ROBINSON, Dvndr) 15 yards to the ECU47, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Yanez Rogers for 4 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 10 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-1
98.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 9 yds to the ECaro 15 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Malick Mbodj) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
99.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Terrell Green for 32 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17INT
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.1%
Hussein Howe run for 8 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+13
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Xavier Smith for 13 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.3%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to BROWN, Trevon, PENALTY CIN pass interference (WIGGINS, James) 15 yards to the CIN37, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.2%
Hussein Howe run for 8 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for no gain to the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 5:0499% → 100%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+24
99.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 24 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+20
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.5%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
99.5%
Charles McClelland run for 16 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-6
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Hayden Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+34
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 34 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Xavier Smith for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.8%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
James Smith punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Trace Christian run for 1 yd to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+10
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 10 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+41
99.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 26 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, tripping (James Wiggins) to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Reid Herring pass intercepted Cameron Jefferies return for no gain to the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
99.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+3
99.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
99.8%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+2
99.8%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
99.8%
James Smith punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+36
99.9%
Reid Herring pass intercepted for a TD Arquon Bush return for 36 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-6
99.9%
Reid Herring sacked by Ty Sponseller for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jonn Young punt for 49 yds, downed at the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25FUMBLE
13 plays · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+20
99.9%
Hayden Moore run for 20 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 9 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 0
0
99.9%
PENALTY CIN unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ECU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the ECaro 25 Charles McClelland fumbled, forced by Chance Purvis, recovered by ECaro Gerard StringerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Trace Christian run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
100.0%
Trace Christian run for 9 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
100.0%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
Trace Christian run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+2
100.0%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:06
Charles McClelland run for 55 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q1 0:00
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+3
TD · Q1 1:21
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 30 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com