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UCF

UCF 38 at South Florida 10

USF
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:10 · Trent Schneider punt for 57 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Pregame prior−8.5Home team on offense−26.6Score differential−12.3Garbage-time factor−9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:01: Greg McCrae run for 40 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +5.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:15: Chris Oladokun pass complete to Johnny Ford for 34 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +16.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:13: Greg McCrae run for 39 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +9.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:17: Greg McCrae run for 31 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 13:17USF 4th & 9 at USF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32UCF 4th & 11 at USF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17USF 4th & 1 at UCF 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03USF 4th & 2 at UCF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:00UCF 4th & 2 at USF 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:29USF 4th & 2 at USF 16, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:06UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:15USF 4th & 14 at USF 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:09USF 4th & 5 at UCF 8, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:21UCF 4th & 6 at USF 37, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:14UCF 4th & 5 at USF 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:05USF 4th & 8 at USF 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:35UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:15USF 4th & 21 at USF 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:03UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:44USF 4th & 2 at USF 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:50UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 16, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:10USF 4th & 1 at USF 43, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:29USF 4th & 9 at USF 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 0:25UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:01UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:15USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:13UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:17UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:51UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+22
11.6%
Chris Oladokun run for 22 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
11.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
11.9%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
12.0%
Chris Oladokun run for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+5
12.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds , Dredrick Snelson returns for 5 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:3688% → 87%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
12.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+1
12.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
12.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
12.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 18 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
12.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
12.8%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
13.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
12.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+4
13.1%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
13.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
13.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3INT
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0014% → 16%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
13.7%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Duran Bell Jr. for 3 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+17
13.8%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 17 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
13.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
14.1%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
14.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
14.4%
Chris Oladokun run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
14.7%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Tyre McCants for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+11
14.9%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 11 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
15.1%
Chris Oladokun run for no gain to the UCF 37 Chris Oladokun fumbled, recovered by SFla Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
15.6%
Chris Oladokun pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
16.1%
Chris Oladokun pass intercepted Richie Grant return for no gain to the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3384% → 84%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
15.7%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
15.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+30
16.1%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Nick Roberts return for 30 yds to the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3517% → 18%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
17.1%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
17.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
17.5%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
17.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 2:2283% → 86%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
17.4%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+1
17.4%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+7
17.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
17.5%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
17.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+9
18.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jake Hescock for 9 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
17.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
17.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 15 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
17.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 38 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
14.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1216% → 17%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
15.8%
Ryeshene Bronson run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
16.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Johnny Ford for 5 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+10
16.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
16.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
16.9%
Brett Kean run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
16.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Tyre McCants for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
16.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5084% → 85%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
15.7%
Greg McCrae run for 13 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+15
15.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mazzi Wilkins) to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down, NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
15.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
15.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+5
15.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the SFla 25. MILTON hurt on play.Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
15.5%
Matthew Wright 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1615% → 15%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
14.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 8 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
15.2%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
14.7%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
14.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1484% → 84%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
16.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
16.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-4
16.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Brandon Boyce for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
16.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 66 yds , Tyre McCants returns for no gain to the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:3315% → 15%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
15.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
15.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 4 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+3
14.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 3 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
15.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
15.4%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
14.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 9
OWN 23
-5
14.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
14.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 52 yds, downed at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0784% → 91%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
15.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 21 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
15.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
15.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+40
9.4%
Greg McCrae run for 40 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:4411% → 13%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
11.3%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Duran Bell Jr.Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
11.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (William Atterbury) to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+18
11.0%
Johnny Ford run for 18 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
11.3%
Brett Kean pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 3 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
11.7%
Johnny Ford run for 11 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+38
12.0%
Johnny Ford run for 38 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
12.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
12.5%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
12.2%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
13.4%
Coby Weiss 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:3488% → 89%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
12.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
12.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
12.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
11.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 12 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
10.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
10.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
10.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
11.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
12.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3588% → 89%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
11.6%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
11.0%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
11.3%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
50
0
10.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
50
-1
10.7%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+6
10.8%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
11.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:5412% → 12%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+20
11.7%
Johnny Ford run for 20 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
12.0%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
11.8%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
12.1%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
12.3%
Duran Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
12.6%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
12.1%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+49
11.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 49 yds , Dredrick Snelson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1990% → 90%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
10.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+4
10.1%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
10.2%
Taj McGowan run for 11 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
10.0%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
9.9%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
9.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
10.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 2:1311% → 10%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
10.9%
DeAngelo Antoine run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-2
11.1%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
10.7%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
11.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
11.5%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-15
10.3%
Brett Kean sacked by A.J. Wooten for a loss of 15 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 21
OWN 18
0
10.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5892% → 91%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
8.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
8.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+2
8.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
8.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:4210% → 27%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
9.6%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+10
9.6%
Johnny Ford run for 10 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
9.7%
Duran Bell Jr. run for 11 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
10.2%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
10.7%
Duran Bell Jr. run for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
10.6%
Duran Bell Jr. run for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
10.7%
Duran Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
26.8%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Johnny Ford for 34 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:4882% → 93%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
17.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
17.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
50
+11
16.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 11 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
7.3%
Greg McCrae run for 39 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:169% → 10%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
9.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
9.6%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
9.2%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
9.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 55 yds, downed at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4194% → 94%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
5.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 5Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+1
5.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 11
OWN 6
-3
5.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Wyatt Miller) to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 14
OWN 3
+13
5.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 13 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+2
5.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:349% → 8%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
9.1%
Duran Bell Jr. run for 8 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
10.0%
Chris Oladokun run for 1 yd to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
8.1%
Duran Bell Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:4196% → 99%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
4.2%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
4.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+47
4.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 47 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
0.8%
Greg McCrae run for 31 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:312% → 2%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.7%
Chris Oladokun run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
1.7%
Chris Oladokun pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
1.7%
Chris Oladokun pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
1.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dredrick Snelson at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 5:0899% → 100%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.9%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
0.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
0.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.6%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+13
0.5%
Greg McCrae run for 13 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.5%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+12
0.5%
Taj McGowan run for 12 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
0.4%
Taj McGowan run for 20 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -22 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.1%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Gabriel Luyanda for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-7
0.1%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-11
0.1%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Anthony Montalvo for a loss of 11 yards to the SFla 3Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 32
OWN 3
0
0.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dredrick Snelson at the SFla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
0.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
0.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:15
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Johnny Ford for 34 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)
+16.1
TD · Q3 0:13
Greg McCrae run for 39 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 5:01
Greg McCrae run for 40 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com