Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 29 at Navy 37

NAVY
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-8.6NAVY 82.4%Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds for a TD(John Parker Romo PAT BLOCKED)AWAY 22 - HOME 30 · Q4 11:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:54 · Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds for a TD (John Parker Romo PAT BLOCKED)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense+11.5Pregame prior+2.8Garbage-time factor+1.4Score differential+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:16: Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:20: Keylon Stokes run for 19 yds for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 41%).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:54: Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds for a TD (John Parker Romo PAT BLOCKED) — TLSA win probability +8.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:46: Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:28TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:06TLSA 4th & 12 at NAVY 33, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:40NAVY 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:54TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−8.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:29NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−5.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:03TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:26NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:45NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:16NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:20TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:28NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:54TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:36NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:46TLSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
64.2%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+2
64.2%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+7
64.2%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-4
64.2%
Tre Walker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+27
64.2%
Owen White punt for 42 yds NAVY Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:5336% → 41%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
63.8%
Keylon Stokes run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-2
63.8%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40 TULSA Penalty, illegal block (Shamari Brooks) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
50
+8
63.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
63.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
63.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
63.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
63.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
63.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
63.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
63.8%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
63.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+15
63.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 15 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:3761% → 65%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
60.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
60.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 8 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
61.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+13
61.2%
Zach Abey run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
61.6%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
61.6%
Tazh Maloy run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
60.0%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
60.5%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
60.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+14
60.0%
Zach Abey run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
64.8%
Nelson Smith run for 10 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2638% → 37%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
61.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+4
62.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-3
62.5%
Seth Boomer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31 TULSA Penalty, illegal forward pass (Seth Boomer) to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+8
63.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 8 yds to the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0564% → 67%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
63.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to CJ Williams for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
64.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+9
64.5%
Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
64.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+26
69.3%
Nelson Smith run for 26 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.5%
Reggie Robinson II return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
65.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
66.1%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Juan HaileySimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
66.7%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+7
67.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 33 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3767% → 74%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
67.0%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
67.0%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+12
66.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding (Garrett Flanary) to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
67.0%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
67.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
74.3%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:5628% → 37%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+17
72.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 17 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
71.8%
Seth Boomer run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+18
71.8%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 18 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
62.7%
Keylon Stokes run for 19 yds for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:5267% → 81%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
66.6%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
66.4%
Zach Abey run for 15 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
68.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
68.4%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+13
67.7%
Zach Abey run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
68.6%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
68.6%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+6
70.1%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
71.0%
Mike Martin run for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
71.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+12
70.2%
Zach Abey run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
79.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
79.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
79.3%
BOOMER, S. pass complete to ANDERSON, J. for 5 yards to the TLS39 (FARRAR, Micah), PENALTY TLS holding (IVY JR, C.) 10 yards to the TLS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+10
79.8%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
79.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+5
80.1%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+30
79.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the NAVY 16 TULSA Penalty, kick catching interference (Samuel Gottsch) to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.1%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FUMBLE
20 plays · 72 yds · 4:5422% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
77.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
77.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
76.5%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
76.4%
Seth Boomer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+5
77.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+7
76.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 7 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
75.9%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
75.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
76.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
74.9%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
75.4%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
76.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion Anderson, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+21
82.1%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 21 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
78.6%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
78.6%
Seth Boomer run for 8 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
79.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Navy 3 Corey Taylor II fumbled, forced by Jackson Pittman, recovered by Navy Marcus EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FG
8 plays · 93 yds · 4:1882% → 90%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
82.4%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-1
82.3%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 3Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+52
81.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 52 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
83.9%
Tre Walker run for 35 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
84.1%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
84.1%
Mike Martin run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
90.0%
Bennett Moehring 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
87.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
87.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
87.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
87.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
86.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
86.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+54
86.6%
Seth Boomer pass intercepted Micah Farrar return for 54 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
93.8%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
93.8%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24 Mike Martin fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Shemarr Robinson , return for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:459% → 18%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
90.9%
Keylon Stokes run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
90.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
91.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Cole Neph for 23 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
91.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
91.4%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Cole Neph for 10 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
90.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 17 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
90.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
90.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
91.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Navy 3Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
82.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds for a TD (John Parker Romo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:1888% → 97%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
88.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+18
88.1%
Tre Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, targeting (McKinley Whitfield) to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.3%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to CJ Williams, broken up by Manny BunchSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
89.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
89.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
87.9%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
89.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
89.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
96.5%
Tre Walker run for 33 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:505% → 16%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
95.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
95.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
95.3%
BOOMER, S. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K., PENALTY NAVY holding (FARRAR, Micah) 10 yards to the NAVY34, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
94.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-10
94.3%
BOOMER, S. rush for 6 yards to the NAVY25 (HEFLIN, Taylor), PENALTY TLS holding (PUGH, J.) 10 yards to the NAVY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
95.3%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion Anderson, broken up by Micah FarrarSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+37
95.7%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 37 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF GAME
13 plays · 17 yds · 3:3793% → 97%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
92.9%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
93.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
92.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
95.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
95.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.2%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-3
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-3
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:28
Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q4 4:46
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 7:20
Keylon Stokes run for 19 yds for a TD (John Parker Romo KICK)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com