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CIN

Cincinnati 13 at UCF 38

UCF
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.2UCF 99.9%Matthew Wright 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 38 · Q4 4:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Matthew Wright 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense+35.4Pregame prior+1.5Score differential+20.2Garbage-time factor+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.1Blowout margin+11.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:28: McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +2.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:55: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:38: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +5.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:56: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the Cincy 48 — UCF win probability +2.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:10: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:40CIN 4th & 9 at UCF 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22UCF 4th & 19 at UCF 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:07CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59UCF 4th & 1 at CIN 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−1.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:40CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 36, down 8
    Close callPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:43UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 46, up 15
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:43UCF 4th & 15 at CIN 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:56CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 47, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:47UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 16, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:39CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 19, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:18UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 27, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:28UCF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:38UCF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:10UCF Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:05UCF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:22CIN Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:2031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (Desmond Ridder) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
69.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Chris Ferguson) to the Cincy 15Similar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
69.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
69.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
69.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
69.0%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+20
68.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 20 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.6%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
68.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
68.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
68.6%
James Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FUMBLE TD
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
67.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Malik Clements for a loss of 7 yards McKenzie Milton fumbled, forced by Malik Clements, recovered by Cincy Kimoni Fitz , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Cole Smith PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0168% → 67%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
67.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-9
67.6%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 19
OWN 5
0
67.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 30 yds, downed at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1933% → 34%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
67.1%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
66.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
66.6%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
66.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
65.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
65.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
66.3%
Cole Smith 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 1:3567% → 70%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
66.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
66.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
66.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 15 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
66.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 28 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
67.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+27
66.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Greg McCrae for 27 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
67.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:1032% → 32%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
68.4%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
68.1%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
68.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
67.5%
Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete to Lewis, Kahlil, PENALTY UCF roughing passer (Hill, Trysten) 15 yards to the UCF42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
67.2%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Joey Connors for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+3
67.7%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+19
67.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 19 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.2%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
66.2%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
66.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+53
67.7%
Cole Smith 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Joey Connors Brandon Moore return for 53 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:1270% → 73%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
69.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
69.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
72.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3227% → 26%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
72.9%
Michael Warren II run for 14 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
72.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
72.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Bruno LabelleSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
73.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+17
73.6%
James Smith punt for 61 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 17 yds to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:1772% → 73%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
72.4%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+47
72.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 47 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
73.9%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
74.0%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI offside (Brooks, Curtis) 5 yards to the CINCINNATI18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
74.0%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
73.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
73.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Michael ColubialeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1926% → 25%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
73.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
73.3%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
73.9%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
73.1%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
74.6%
James Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:0273% → 82%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
73.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+13
73.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 13 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
74.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 11 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
75.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
75.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 12 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
76.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Wyatt Miller) to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+2
75.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+13
75.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 13 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
76.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
76.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
82.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FUMBLE
21 plays · 48 yds · 5:3020% → 17%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
81.1%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
81.3%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
81.4%
Charles McClelland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-2
81.9%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+22
83.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 22 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
81.6%
Ridder, Desmond pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UCF41 (Connors, Joey), PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Ferguson, Chris) 10 yards to the UCF49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
82.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+11
82.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+10
80.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
79.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Chris Ferguson) to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+10
80.5%
Charles McClelland run for 10 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+11
80.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
79.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
79.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Dino Boyd) to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 15
OPP 17
-2
80.2%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Titus Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 17
OPP 19
-8
82.8%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Titus Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 27 Desmond Ridder fumbled, forced by Titus Davis, recovered by UCF Brendon Hayes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0785% → 85%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
84.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 32
-1
85.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:1285% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
85.3%
Greg McCrae run for 17 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 2 yds Gabriel Davis fumbled, forced by Tyrell Gilbert, recovered by UCF Greg McCraeSimilar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
86.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
85.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+1
84.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 32 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0816% → 15%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
84.5%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
84.7%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
84.4%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
85.4%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 27 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by UCF Joey ConnorsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5288% → 87%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
87.5%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-7
87.5%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Kimoni Fitz for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 17
OPP 34
-5
87.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jake Brown) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 22
OPP 39
+7
87.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
86.6%
Matthew Wright 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4715% → 13%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
85.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
85.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
85.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
86.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
86.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
87.1%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:4690% → 97%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
90.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
90.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-5
90.3%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+42
96.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:334% → 2%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
96.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
96.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.5%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
96.7%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+15
97.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 15 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.2%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-5
97.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Titus Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 14
OPP 0
-5
98.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the UCF 37 fumbled, forced by Pat Jasinski, recovered by UCF Keenan Johnson for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chris Ferguson) to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
98.6%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
98.6%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+11
98.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Michael ColubialeSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
98.8%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Greg McCrae run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:430% → 2%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tavion Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+21
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 21 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+11
99.8%
Charles McClelland run for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+28
99.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 28 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:3599% → 100%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.3%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
99.4%
Taj McGowan run for 22 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
99.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 20 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
99.5%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+8
99.6%
Taj McGowan run for 8 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
99.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Matthew Wright 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Charles McClellandSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.7%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+62
99.8%
James Smith punt for 52 yds , Dredrick Snelson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 18 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (Jacob Harris) to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 7 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-4
99.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 45 yds , Aulden Knight returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:320% → 0%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+19
99.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 19 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:10
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 5:38
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 14:55
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com