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USF

South Florida 23 at Cincinnati 35

CIN
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:34 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:34: Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 38 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +5.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:34: Michael Warren II run for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +10.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:47: Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +9.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Chris Oladokun pass complete to Tyre McCants for 25 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +18.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 0:36: Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +11.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:47CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:51USF 4th & 10 at USF 1, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:00USF 4th & 11 at CIN 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:55CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:52USF 4th & 11 at USF 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:28CIN 4th & 1 at USF 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:11CIN 4th & 14 at USF 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:11USF 4th & 6 at USF 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:15CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:28USF 4th & 7 at USF 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:58USF 4th & 6 at CIN 40, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:56USF 4th & 8 at USF 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:26USF 4th & 6 at USF 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:42USF 4th & 2 at CIN 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 15 at USF 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:51USF 4th & 4 at USF 41, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:44CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 27, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:47USF 4th & 1 at USF 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−1.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:47USF 4th & 5 at USF 37, down 12
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:54USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09CIN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:45CIN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:34USF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:34CIN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:47CIN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:06USF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:36CIN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
86.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
86.0%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
86.0%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:4714% → 15%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
85.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+72
85.2%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 72 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the Cincy 1 (Coby Weiss PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
85.2%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
85.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
85.1%
James Smith punt for 64 yds, downed at the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
84.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
85.0%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 2
-1
85.0%
Chris Oladokun run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+21
85.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 21 yds to the SFla 22 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Kirk Livingstone) to the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:1885% → 85%
Q1 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
84.6%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
84.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5816% → 17%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
84.0%
Chris Oladokun run for 9 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+6
83.9%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 6 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
83.9%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
83.9%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix, broken up by Michael PittsSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-3
83.8%
Chris Oladokun run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
83.2%
Coby Weiss 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
83.3%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
83.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
83.4%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Juwuan Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+2
83.2%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+2
83.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.1%
James Smith punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 11 , Tyre McCants returns for 9 yds to the SFla 48 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
82.1%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 5 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+5
82.0%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 5 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
82.0%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
82.1%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Bryan Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
82.3%
Chris Oladokun pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
82.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 40 yds, downed at the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:2582% → 83%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.2%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
81.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 16 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
82.5%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+9
82.5%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
82.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 12 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
82.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 1 yd to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
82.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
83.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1117% → 23%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.3%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
82.7%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
83.0%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
82.8%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 18 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
82.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+38
77.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 38 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:1879% → 75%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
79.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 20 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
80.6%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+14
80.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 14 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.2%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
81.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+7
80.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 7 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+5
78.4%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
79.8%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
79.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-9
79.1%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kelvin Pinkney Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 18 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by Cincy Jakari Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+36
75.0%
Cole Smith 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.0%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Tyre McCants for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
74.7%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
75.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
76.6%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
77.0%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 1
50
+4
76.7%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
77.3%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kevin Bronson for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+5
75.5%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
75.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 12
OPP 48
-5
74.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
74.2%
James Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
71.6%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
71.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Randall St. Felix) to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-5
71.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Randall St. Felix) to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 20
OWN 5
0
72.2%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 20
OWN 5
+13
73.0%
Johnny Ford run for 13 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
73.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 41 yds , Aulden Knight returns for no gain to the Cincy 44 Aulden Knight fumbled, forced by Khalid McGee, recovered by SFla Greg ReavesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2732% → 30%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
67.8%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
68.2%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
68.3%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
70.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 38 yds, downed at the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+12
71.7%
Michael Warren II run for 12 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
69.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+12
67.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 12 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.4%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Johnny Ford, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
67.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
68.3%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Michael PittsSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
70.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:5270% → 81%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.1%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
70.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
71.0%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
70.6%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-5
70.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Chris Ferguson) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+13
70.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+57
80.8%
Michael Warren II run for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
78.0%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-14
78.2%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Kimoni Fitz for a loss of 14 yards to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 23
OWN 3
+22
79.6%
Johnny Ford run for 22 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-5
79.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+17
79.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 32 yds, downed at the CINCINNATI 48 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, kick catching interference (Chris Barr) to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:0782% → 91%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
81.5%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to LEWIS, Kahlil, PENALTY USF pass interference (HAMPTON, Mike) 15 yards to the USF22, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
82.1%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
82.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+14
81.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 14 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:3611% → 31%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
89.1%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+12
88.1%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 12 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
88.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-4
88.6%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Bryan Wright and Michael Pitts for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+24
89.5%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 24 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.9%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Randall St. Felix for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
86.9%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 9 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-1
87.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
88.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
69.4%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Tyre McCants for 25 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:2678% → 93%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+43
77.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 43 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
81.2%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+31
81.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 31 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3610% → 9%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.0%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Michael Pitts for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
90.5%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
92.5%
Charles McClelland run for 17 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
92.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
92.6%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 35 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by SFla Josh BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Chris Oladokun run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
89.8%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix, broken up by Malik ClementsSimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
90.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
93.1%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+9
93.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
93.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah Deguara, broken up by Nick RobertsSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
93.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
93.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 6
OWN 32
-5
92.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
92.3%
James Smith punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.0%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
92.0%
Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
91.0%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+1
91.3%
Chris Oladokun run for 1 yd to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
91.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
90.8%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28END OF GAME
18 plays · 58 yds · 5:0694% → 97%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
94.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
94.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
94.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
94.7%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
94.7%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
94.6%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+13
94.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 13 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.7%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-3
97.0%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+19
97.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Khalid McGee) to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
97.3%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
97.3%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+8
97.2%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
97.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 6Similar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Tyre McCants for 25 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 0:36
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 10:34
Michael Warren II run for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com