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NAVY

Navy 24 at UCF 35

UCF
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:45 · Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+37.3Home team on offense+5.1Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:45: Zach Abey run for 5 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:38: McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:57: Mike Martin run for 14 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +8.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:28: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:34: Zach Abey run for 8 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:03UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:45NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:30NAVY 4th & 1 at UCF 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:17NAVY 4th & 7 at UCF 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:29UCF 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q4 8:10NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:22UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 19, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:35UCF 4th & 1 at NAVY 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:53UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:30UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:45UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:45NAVY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:38UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:57NAVY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:28UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:34NAVY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4294% → 94%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
94.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-2
94.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+8
94.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
94.0%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 44 yds, downed at the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:056% → 7%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
94.0%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Connors) to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+8
93.8%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
93.8%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
93.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+2
93.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 7
OWN 45
-5
93.3%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+8
93.3%
Owen White punt for 54 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 8 yds to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 3:0193% → 94%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
93.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
93.2%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+10
92.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Greg McCrae for 10 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
92.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
92.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+9
92.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 9 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
92.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
92.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 21 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
92.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+7
92.7%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.5%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:377% → 7%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
93.0%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
93.0%
Tre Walker run for 15 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
92.7%
Zach Abey run for 15 yds to the UCF 38 Zach Abey fumbled, forced by Richie Grant, recovered by UCF Pat JasinskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:2093% → 94%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
93.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 8 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+18
93.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 18 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
93.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 6 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+4
93.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
93.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
92.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
92.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
92.7%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
14 plays · 41 yds · 6:507% → 7%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
93.4%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-7
93.4%
Tre Walker run for 8 yds to the Navy 39 NAVY Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
93.5%
Tre Walker run for 8 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
93.4%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
93.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
93.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.1%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
93.0%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
92.9%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
92.8%
Tazh Maloy run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
92.7%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
92.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Navy Zach Abey Zach Abey run for no gain to the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:1594% → 97%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
93.6%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+18
93.7%
Greg McCrae run for 18 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.9%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
93.9%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
93.4%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
96.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 34 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:214% → 6%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.1%
Tazh Maloy run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+46
96.2%
Tre Walker run for 46 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
95.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 8 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
95.8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
96.1%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
96.1%
Tre Walker run for 1 yd to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
96.1%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Andrew Wood) to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
96.2%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.6%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
94.3%
Bennett Moehring 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FUMBLE
12 plays · 73 yds · 1:4695% → 95%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
95.2%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
95.2%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+21
95.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 21 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
95.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+14
95.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 14 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
95.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 20 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
95.3%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+4
95.0%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the Navy 13 Taj McGowan fumbled, recovered by Navy Taylor HeflinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
94.8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:455% → 11%
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 16 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
94.4%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
50
+1
94.3%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
94.4%
Mike Martin run for 23 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.9%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
94.1%
Zach Abey sacked by Nate Evans for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+10
95.6%
Abey, Zach pass complete to Mitchell, Ryan for 14 yards to the UCF17, PENALTY UCF holding 10 yards to the UCF21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
94.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+9
94.8%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.7%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:5291% → 97%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.4%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
91.9%
Otis Anderson run for 12 yds to the UCF 41 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dredrick Snelson) to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
91.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
91.5%
Otis Anderson run for 12 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
91.9%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
91.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 9 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
91.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 14 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
91.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 9 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+8
91.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
91.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:234% → 12%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
96.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
96.1%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
96.2%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+9
96.4%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+17
96.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 17 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
96.2%
CJ Williams run for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+16
95.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 16 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
96.1%
Mike Martin run for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
88.0%
Mike Martin run for 14 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:0292% → 98%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
91.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
91.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 12 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
92.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+24
91.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 24 yds Marlon Williams fumbled, recovered by UCF Alex Swenson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
92.6%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
92.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+11
92.2%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
92.6%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
98.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:103% → 3%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
97.0%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
97.0%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Peter Nestrowitz) to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
97.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
97.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-6
97.0%
Tre Walker run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
97.3%
Owen White punt for 54 yds, downed at the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
97.8%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
97.9%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
98.2%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
98.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 32 yds, downed at the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:262% → 8%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.7%
Zach Abey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
98.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
98.2%
Tre Walker run for 10 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
98.1%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-1
97.8%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+13
97.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
97.8%
Mike Martin run for 10 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.5%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:5796% → 98%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
96.3%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
97.2%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
97.3%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
97.2%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
98.0%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
98.2%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:57
Mike Martin run for 14 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-8
TD · Q3 8:45
Zach Abey run for 5 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q4 11:28
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com