Try the model
HOU

Houston 31 at SMU 45

SMU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Dane Roy punt for 42 yds , James Proche returns for no gain to the SMU 30 James Proche fumbled, recovered by SMU James Proche
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−30.0Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:35: Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyler Page for 17 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:08: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +14.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:39: Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 59 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +9.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:34: D'Eriq King run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +16.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45SMU 4th & 5 at HOU 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:45HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:26SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:40HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:03HOU 4th & 9 at SMU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:00SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:57HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:06HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:11SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.0%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−4.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:57SMU 4th & 10 at HOU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−2.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:55HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:12SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 10, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:48HOU 4th & 8 at SMU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−11.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 5 at SMU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−3.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:44SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−3.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:25SMU 4th & 16 at HOU 33, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:03SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:35SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:54HOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:08SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:39SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:50HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:34HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:43SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.0%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
20.0%
Patrick Carr run for 7 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.0%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
20.0%
D'Eriq King sacked by Richard Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 31
-2
20.0%
D'Eriq King sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
20.0%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds , James Proche returns for no gain to the SMU 30 James Proche fumbled, recovered by SMU James ProcheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:3521% → 23%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
20.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Alexander MyresSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
20.8%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+35
20.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 35 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
21.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
21.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
21.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
22.6%
Kevin Robledo 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.4%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
22.3%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
22.4%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
22.2%
KING, D'Eriq rush for 1 yard to the HOU40 (HAYES, JR, R.), PENALTY HOU holding (BROOKER, R.) 10 yards to the HOU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+4
22.4%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 16
OWN 33
0
22.5%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+6
22.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 6 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
22.6%
Dane Roy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
23.8%
Tyler Page pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
23.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+11
23.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
24.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyler Page for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
24.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
24.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
23.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.1%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
25.1%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
25.4%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
25.6%
Dane Roy punt for 33 yds, downed at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:3026% → 31%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
26.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
26.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+34
26.2%
Xavier Jones run for 34 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
26.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
26.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, offside defense (Payton Turner) to the Houst 7Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
30.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ryan Becker for 7 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.0%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+28
29.1%
Patrick Carr run for 28 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
28.1%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
28.2%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+3
28.3%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 4
OPP 42
-5
28.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
29.0%
Dane Roy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 1:3532% → 45%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
32.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ryan Becker for 19 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
32.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
33.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 12 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
33.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 30 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
34.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
44.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyler Page for 17 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4157% → 65%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
43.1%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+24
43.2%
D'Eriq King run for 24 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.3%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
42.5%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 6
50
+50
35.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 50 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5436% → 30%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+24
30.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 1 yd for a TD Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by Houst Gleson Sprewell , return for 24 yds (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
31.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
31.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
30.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
30.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 30 yds, downed at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
32.1%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
31.7%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
32.5%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+10
33.4%
Dane Roy punt for 56 yds , James Proche returns for 10 yds to the SMU 46 SMU Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 4:5133% → 50%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
33.0%
Braeden West run for 16 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.3%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
34.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
33.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
33.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 12 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
35.2%
Ben Hicks run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
35.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
35.3%
Braeden West run for 15 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
35.7%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
35.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 4 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+10
35.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.3%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
46.6%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+1
47.6%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+9
48.3%
Dane Roy punt for 48 yds , James Proche returns for 9 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3451% → 67%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.6%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
50.6%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
49.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+44
53.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 44 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
57.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+12
56.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 12 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
56.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 1 yd for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.1%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
68.2%
WEST, Braeden rush for loss of 1 yard to the SMU29 (TURNER, Payton), PENALTY SMU holding (MORRIS, Beau) 10 yards to the SMU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
67.8%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
66.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
65.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
69.4%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-4
69.7%
D'Eriq King sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-7
72.4%
D'Eriq King sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 45 D'Eriq King fumbled, recovered by SMU Kyran Mitchell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
75.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
74.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
73.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.1%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
74.8%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
74.3%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
74.0%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
74.4%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-3
74.1%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
75.2%
Dane Roy punt for 55 yds, downed at the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
82.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
82.5%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
82.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
81.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 31 yds , Bryson Smith returns for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:5520% → 21%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
80.5%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
80.6%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+13
80.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 13 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
78.7%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
78.7%
Chandler Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+7
80.0%
Chandler Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
78.7%
Chandler Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
78.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+6
80.4%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 3
OPP 5
-5
80.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Will Noble) to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
79.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0986% → 96%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.5%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
85.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
96.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 59 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:435% → 13%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
95.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
50
+8
95.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 8 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+8
94.9%
Patrick Carr run for 8 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
94.6%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
95.1%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+17
96.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 17 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
95.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 11 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.8%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.6%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
92.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-6
92.0%
Ben Hicks sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:4110% → 28%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
90.4%
Chandler Smith run for 12 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.2%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
90.3%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+35
90.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 35 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
88.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 6 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.2%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:4184% → 98%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
83.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 12 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
84.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
84.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
83.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
84.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 7 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
84.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
84.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
84.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-2
84.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 26 Ke'Mon Freeman fumbled, forced by Logan Hall, recovered by SMU Jaylon ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+11
83.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 11 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
84.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
95.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
98.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for no gain to the Houst 27 lat. to Marquez Stevenson for 2 yds Marquez Stevenson fumbled, recovered by SMU Kyran MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 14
OPP 31
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 16
OPP 33
0
98.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 23 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
98.5%
D'Eriq King run for 23 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:34
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q2 4:08
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q3 1:39
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 59 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com