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USF

South Florida 36 at Houston 57

HOU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:30 · Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+13.1Home team on offense+6.2Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:20: Johnny Ford run for 32 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +9.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:50: Johnny Ford run for 17 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +11.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:25: D'Eriq King run for 36 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +11.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:43: D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 52 yds for a TD, (Bryson Smith pass to Jeremy Singleton for Two-Point Conversion) — HOU win probability +11.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:36: DeAngelo Antoine 39 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Coby Weiss Kick) — USF win probability +13.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:09USF 4th & 3 at USF 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:39HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:24USF 4th & 16 at USF 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:46HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:30USF 4th & 3 at USF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.0
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:26USF 4th & 3 at USF 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:25HOU 4th & 7 at USF 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:11USF 4th & 8 at HOU 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−10.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:50HOU 4th & 1 at USF 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:07HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:38HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:20USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:42HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:50USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:06HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:25HOU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:43HOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:36USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:47HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:05HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4875% → 76%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 12 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
75.0%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
74.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+14
74.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 14 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
75.5%
D'Eriq King run for 47 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5125% → 25%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
75.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
75.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+2
75.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 51 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:2275% → 78%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
75.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+2
75.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+9
75.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 9 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
75.6%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+15
75.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
75.8%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+20
75.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 20 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
76.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 9 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
77.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:2023% → 22%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
76.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
76.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+6
77.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
77.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 4 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
77.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+2
77.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-5
77.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
78.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0879% → 79%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
79.0%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
79.1%
Keith Corbin run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-1
79.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 3:0822% → 20%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
78.5%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
78.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
78.3%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
79.0%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
79.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 11 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
78.7%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-10
78.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+5
79.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jernard Phillips for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-6
79.1%
Blake Barnett sacked by Emeke Egbule for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
79.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:3480% → 80%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
80.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.4%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
80.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
80.3%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+1
80.0%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds , Johnny Ford returns for 1 yd to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 5:0721% → 27%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
79.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
79.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to DeAngelo Antoine for 2 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
79.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
79.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 12 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
79.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+14
79.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
79.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to DeAngelo Antoine for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+16
80.1%
Blake Barnett run for 16 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
78.9%
Johnny Ford run for 9 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
78.9%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
79.0%
Johnny Ford run for 7 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+4
79.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 4 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Mekhi LaPointe return for no gain to the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
67.1%
Johnny Ford run for 32 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 1:1871% → 78%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
70.5%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+3
70.4%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+18
69.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 18 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
71.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 26 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
77.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 38 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 4:4724% → 38%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
76.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+11
76.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 11 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+12
75.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 12 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
75.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
75.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 7 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.0%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Zion RolandSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
75.5%
Blake Barnett run for 7 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
74.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
74.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Zion Roland for 7 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+6
74.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 6 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
73.6%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
73.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
74.3%
Blake Barnett run for 5 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
62.4%
Johnny Ford run for 17 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3469% → 80%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.9%
Patrick Carr run for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.1%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+15
70.6%
D'Eriq King run for 15 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
70.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+2
70.3%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+13
69.7%
D'Eriq King run for 13 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
71.5%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
79.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 30 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1723% → 21%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
76.6%
Blake Barnett run for 7 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
77.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
78.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
78.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:2079% → 79%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
78.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-9
77.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+23
77.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 23 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
78.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 21 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2424% → 23%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
76.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+8
77.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 8 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
77.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 62 yds, downed at the Houst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2577% → 75%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
77.4%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 2Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 0
-2
74.7%
D'Eriq King sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY HOUSTON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (D'Eriq King) to the Houst 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2732% → 35%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
68.0%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
67.9%
Johnny Ford run for 9 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 1
OPP 4
-3
67.7%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+23
65.4%
Coby Weiss 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0570% → 83%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.6%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+22
69.1%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
72.5%
Patrick Carr run for 10 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
72.6%
Patrick Carr run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-1
73.4%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-3
72.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+36
83.4%
D'Eriq King run for 36 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0418% → 23%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
82.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.0%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Zion RolandSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
82.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 18 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
80.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 11 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
79.8%
Johnny Ford run for 11 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
79.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+6
80.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 6 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
80.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Houst 10Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
82.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
76.7%
Coby Weiss 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1779% → 93%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.8%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
79.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
77.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 17 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
82.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terence Williams for 3 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
82.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Raelon SingletonSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+52
93.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 52 yds for a TD, (Bryson Smith pass to Jeremy Singleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:499% → 22%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
91.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
91.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+26
91.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 26 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
90.7%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
90.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Zion Roland for 15 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
90.9%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
77.8%
DeAngelo Antoine 39 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4386% → 95%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+45
85.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 45 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
88.7%
D'Eriq King run for 9 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
88.1%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
89.1%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
95.2%
Mulbah Car run for 11 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:217% → 6%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
93.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
50
0
92.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
50
+7
93.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 7 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
93.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Houst 39 Jordan Cronkrite fumbled, recovered by SFla Mitchell Wilcox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.6%
Blake Barnett pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Watkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:0595% → 96%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
95.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 11 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
95.5%
Patrick Carr run for 8 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+10
95.9%
Patrick Carr run for 10 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
95.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 8 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
96.3%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
96.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 30 lat. to D'Eriq King for 12 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-3
96.4%
Bryson Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
96.4%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
96.1%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:0797% → 99%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 27 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
99.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Zion Roland for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 10 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
98.9%
Blake Barnett sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 36 Blake Barnett fumbled, recovered by Houst Terence Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28Uncategorized
11 plays · 46 yds · 6:1499% → 100%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.2%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
99.4%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
99.4%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 9 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
99.5%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 7 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+3
99.6%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-6
99.7%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+3
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:36
DeAngelo Antoine 39 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Coby Weiss Kick)
-13.1
TD · Q2 3:50
Johnny Ford run for 17 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q3 8:25
D'Eriq King run for 36 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com