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CIN

Cincinnati 26 at SMU 20

SMU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD James Wiggins return for 86 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:13: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +10.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:05: Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +21.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 4:23: Kevin Robledo 36 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +17.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:00: Cole Smith 41 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +40.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD James Wiggins return for 86 yds for a TD — CIN win probability +40.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:37SMU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:39SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25CIN 4th & 3 at SMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:53SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:45SMU 4th & 14 at CIN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:51CIN 4th & 3 at SMU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:44SMU 4th & 17 at SMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:26SMU 4th & 8 at CIN 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:06SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:37CIN 4th & 4 at SMU 7, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:30SMU 4th & 8 at CIN 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:57CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:46SMU 4th & 1 at CIN 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−18.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:46CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−4.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:05SMU 4th & 2 at CIN 25, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%−3.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−22.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:05CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−8.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:23SMU 4th & 10 at CIN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−4.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−24.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:23CIN 4th & 3 at SMU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−7.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:29SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:37CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:46SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:13CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:05SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:2375% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
24.8%
Michael Warren II run for 12 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
24.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 21 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
24.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 9 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+32
25.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
25.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
50
+5
25.2%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-5
25.2%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
50
0
25.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 10
50
0
25.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 10
50
0
25.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
25.4%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 8 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by SMU Jake HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
26.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5INT
15 plays · 61 yds · 3:1174% → 73%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
26.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
26.3%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Jake Hall for a loss of 15 yards to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+2
26.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 23
OWN 24
+30
26.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 15 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Biggurs) to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
26.1%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-10
27.3%
RIDDER, Desmond pass complete to MEDARIS, Rashad for 44 yards to the SMU0, clock 08:30, PENALTY CIN holding (TROUT, Kyle) 10 yards to the CIN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+11
27.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 11 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+18
27.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 18 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
27.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
27.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
27.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
27.1%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
27.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+1
27.3%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jordan Wyatt return for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
29.7%
SMU Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the SMU 2Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+2
29.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
29.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+2
29.3%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
29.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Delontae ScottSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
29.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
29.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-1
28.9%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
29.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 3
OPP 27
-3
29.9%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
31.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
32.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
31.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3069% → 68%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
31.3%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
31.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-1
31.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+31
32.4%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 41 , James Proche returns for 31 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
34.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
34.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-15
34.1%
HICKS, Ben pass complete to WEST, Braeden for 22 yards to the CIN19 (WHITE, Jarell), PENALTY SMU pass interference (WEST, Braeden) 15 yards to the SMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 25
OWN 44
+11
32.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 11 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 14
OPP 45
+11
32.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 26 yds SMU Penalty, kick catching interference (Preston Ellison) to the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:2468% → 68%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
32.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 17 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
31.2%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
31.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+11
31.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 11 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
30.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-10
30.7%
RIDDER, Desmond pass complete to MCCLELLAND, C. for 8 yards to the SMU21 (NELSON, Patrick), PENALTY CIN holding (LABELLE, Bruno) 10 yards to the SMU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+9
31.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+8
31.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 8 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
30.9%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+12
32.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 12 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
32.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
36.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
36.9%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
36.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-8
35.5%
Ben Hicks sacked by Marquise Copeland for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
34.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
33.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+18
32.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 18 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
32.0%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Elijah McQueen return for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:2739% → 40%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
38.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
38.4%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to ROBERSON, JR., PENALTY CIN pass interference (BRYANT, Coby) 15 yards to the SMU49, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
40.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
41.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
41.4%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
41.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
41.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
39.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15END OF HALF
13 plays · 32 yds · 1:0864% → 65%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
36.1%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
35.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 10 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
35.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
33.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
34.4%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
50
-5
33.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
36.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+7
36.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 7 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
35.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete, broken up by Cole SternsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
41.5%
SMU Penalty, false start (Jaylon Thomas) to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+31
38.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 32 , Aulden Knight returns for 31 yds to the CINCINNATI 40 SMU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:1766% → 76%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
34.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
34.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+32
24.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
27.4%
Reggie Roberson Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 16
OWN 21
0
26.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr., broken up by Marquise CopelandSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+7
26.0%
Ben Hicks run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
25.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 5:0374% → 78%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
25.1%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+31
25.7%
Michael Warren II run for 31 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
23.2%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
23.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+20
23.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 20 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
23.1%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-1
23.1%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+5
23.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
21.9%
Cole Smith 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:2522% → 43%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
21.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+42
21.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 42 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
24.2%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-1
24.3%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
23.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+16
21.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 16 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
43.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
34.5%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
34.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
35.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 8 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
33.6%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+2
34.7%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
35.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
36.8%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2138% → 52%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
37.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
37.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+13
35.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Judah Bell for 13 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
38.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to CJ Sanders for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
41.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+51
40.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 51 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
45.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+1
45.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
41.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 1 yd to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+20
51.8%
Kevin Robledo 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 52%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
44.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+7
45.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-11
43.9%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 19
OWN 17
+9
47.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+7
48.5%
James Smith punt for 53 yds , James Proche returns for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5251% → 54%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
50.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 39 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
57.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 9 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-1
57.7%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
55.6%
William Brown run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
53.7%
Kevin Robledo 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
46.0%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Gary Wiley for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
50.3%
James Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:2653% → 74%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
51.9%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+24
49.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 24 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
58.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+1
58.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
57.1%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to PROCHE, James, PENALTY CIN pass interference (JEFFERIES, Cam) 6 yards to the CIN30, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
59.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to CJ Sanders for 11 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
59.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
59.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
57.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
74.3%
Kevin Robledo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0036% → 41%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
60.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
59.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
56.7%
Charles McClelland run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+8
58.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
55.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
59.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2486% → 88%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
86.7%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
87.2%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 16:2114% → 78%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
86.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
83.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 6 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
85.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
82.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 5 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
81.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 19 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
76.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
76.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.5%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+41
38.2%
Cole Smith 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
47.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by Bryan Wright for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 32 Hayden Moore sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 32
+15
62.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 15 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+86
22.4%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD James Wiggins return for 86 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Cole Smith 41 yd FG GOOD
-40.9
FG · OT 0:00
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD James Wiggins return for 86 yds for a TD
-40.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com