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HOU

Houston 49 at Navy 36

NAVY
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:36 · Owen White punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior−15.4Home team on offense+2.9Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:19: Tazh Maloy run for 32 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:52: D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 65 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +9.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 5:33: D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 14 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +14.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:09: Marquez Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +11.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:45: D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +7.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:21NAVY 4th & 1 at HOU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:45NAVY 4th & 9 at HOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55HOU 4th & 10 at NAVY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:36NAVY 4th & 15 at HOU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:54NAVY 4th & 11 at HOU 34, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.5%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 5 at HOU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:33NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 6 at HOU 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:48HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:50NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:05NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:04HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:19NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:52HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:33HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:09HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:45HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:01HOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.1%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.1%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
24.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
24.1%
Dane Roy punt for 38 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 17 yds to the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 5:3625% → 28%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
24.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
24.5%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
24.5%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 14:21
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
24.5%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
24.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 10 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
24.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 4 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-15
24.5%
LEWIS, Garret rush for 5 yards to the HOU18 (ROBINSON, Austi), PENALTY NAVY personal foul 15 yards to the HOU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 21
OPP 38
+9
24.5%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+3
24.5%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Myles Fells for 3 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
27.8%
Bennett Moehring 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5772% → 74%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.8%
Patrick Carr run for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
27.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 9 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
27.3%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
27.3%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
27.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
27.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+19
27.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 19 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
26.2%
Patrick Carr run for 22 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5827% → 33%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
27.4%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
27.1%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
27.0%
Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
27.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
27.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+7
27.7%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
28.0%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
33.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 32 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 1:5568% → 67%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
31.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 21 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
30.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 18 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
30.7%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
30.7%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+8
30.8%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
30.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
30.3%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
30.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
32.9%
Dalton Witherspoon 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:5033% → 47%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
32.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+14
33.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
34.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
34.1%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 5 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+15
34.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 15 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
34.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
34.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
34.0%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the Houst 26 Garret Lewis fumbled, recovered by Navy Garret LewisSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+5
36.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, offside defense (Ed Oliver) to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
38.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
38.2%
Tazh Maloy run for 2 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+14
37.5%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 14 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.9%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0155% → 64%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
44.2%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+40
45.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 40 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
41.6%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+8
41.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 8 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
41.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
41.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
36.0%
D'Eriq King run for 17 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4540% → 51%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
39.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 43 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
50.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 32 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2752% → 62%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
38.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 65 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:1641% → 42%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+28
41.7%
Garret Lewis run for 28 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
43.7%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the Houst 42 Garret Lewis fumbled, recovered by Navy Garret LewisSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-11
43.3%
Garret Lewis sacked by Austin Robinson for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 22
OWN 47
+7
41.9%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
42.3%
Owen White punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
44.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 17 yds Keith Corbin fumbled, forced by Sean Williams, recovered by Navy Michael McMorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2647% → 45%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
47.2%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-4
47.0%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+4
44.4%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
45.1%
Owen White punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0051% → 54%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
48.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 12 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
48.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
48.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 11 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
47.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
48.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
49.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 11 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
45.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Jarrid Williams) to the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
44.1%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 30 Malcolm Perry fumbled,Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+9
44.0%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 9 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
45.1%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
45.0%
Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
45.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
44.5%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-8
46.8%
Garret Lewis sacked by Austin Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+10
44.3%
Myles Fells run for 10 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+3
45.5%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
44.3%
Owen White punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:2052% → 72%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+34
48.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 34 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
44.7%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the Houst 48 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Jones) to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 18
OWN 38
+3
47.3%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+6
47.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 6 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+12
46.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 12 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
44.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+8
42.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
42.5%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
42.5%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Navy 14Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
28.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 14 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
34.1%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
34.0%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 7 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
33.7%
Garret Lewis run for 5 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
34.7%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-5
34.7%
Tre Walker run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-2
32.4%
Garret Lewis sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+4
31.7%
Owen White punt for 47 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:2571% → 86%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
29.5%
Mulbah Car run for 17 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
27.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 12 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+41
26.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 41 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.3%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.1%
Marquez Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0917% → 17%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
17.0%
MARTIN, Mike rush for 2 yards to the NAVY27 (ROBINSON, Austi;BROWN, Roman), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (WOOD, Andrew) 12 yards to the NAVY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+4
16.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 4 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
16.6%
Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+27
15.7%
Garret Lewis pass complete to OJ Davis for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
19.3%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
19.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
19.5%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
18.2%
ABEY, Zach rush for 2 yards to the HOU39 (ROBINSON, Austi;EGBULE, Emeke), PENALTY NAVY HS 5 yards to the HOU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
17.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Myles Fells, broken up by Alexander MyresSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:0289% → 97%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
11.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 10 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
11.3%
Marquez Stevenson run for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
11.1%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
10.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+12
10.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 12 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
10.6%
Terence Williams run for 10 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
10.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
10.6%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20INT TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:444% → 0%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.9%
Mychal Cooper run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
3.9%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 5 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
4.1%
Garret Lewis run for 15 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
4.3%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+50
0.3%
Garret Lewis pass intercepted for a TD Nick Watkins return for 50 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:030% → 2%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
0.3%
Tre Walker run for 14 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.3%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
0.3%
Tyreek King-El run for 7 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
0.3%
Mike Martin run for 10 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
0.3%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
0.2%
Mike Martin run for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+4
0.2%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
0.2%
Mike Martin run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
0.2%
Mike Martin run for 9 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
0.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to OJ DavisSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
2.1%
Myles Fells run for 14 yds for a TDSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.4%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
0.7%
Kevrin Justice run for 12 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
0.7%
Bryson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+21
0.7%
Bryson Smith pass intercepted Sean Williams return for 21 yds to the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:121% → 3%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
1.4%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 50 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
2.7%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 15 yds for a TDSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
3.0%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
2.0%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:33
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 14 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 0:09
Marquez Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 5:19
Tazh Maloy run for 32 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com