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UCF

UCF 37 at East Carolina 10

ECU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDFGFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:33: Quadry Jones pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +2.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:50: Darriel Mack Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +4.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:04: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +5.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:49: Matthew Wright 46 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +3.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 10:07: Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 5 yards Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Kyle Gibson, recovered by UCF Nate Evans , return for 94 yds (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +9.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:14UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:24UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:22ECU 4th & 10 at UCF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:24UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:28ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:45UCF 4th & 1 at ECU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:14UCF 4th & 5 at ECU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:10UCF 4th & 5 at ECU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:44UCF 4th & 3 at ECU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:52ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:02ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:52UCF 4th & 21 at UCF 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:25ECU 4th & 10 at UCF 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49UCF 4th & 6 at ECU 29, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−4.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:00UCF 4th & 17 at ECU 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:07ECU 4th & 8 at UCF 8, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 8:33UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:50UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:04ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:14UCF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:3794% → 93%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
6.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+10
6.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 10 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
6.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Devon Sutton for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+3
6.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 16
OWN 47
-1
7.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Alex Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
7.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:347% → 8%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
7.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
7.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+15
7.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 15 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
7.6%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
7.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
7.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+13
7.9%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 13 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5192% → 92%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
7.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
8.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+1
8.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
8.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:518% → 10%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
8.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 13 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
8.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 15
OWN 44
-2
8.8%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+41
8.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 41 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
9.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+5
9.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
9.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Hussein Howe for 7 yds to the UCF 7 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
9.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
9.9%
Jake Verity 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5090% → 89%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.0%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
9.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
10.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Jake HescockSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
10.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:4210% → 11%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
10.4%
Darius Pinnix run for no gain to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
10.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 6 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
10.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 6 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
11.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 8 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-5
11.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Nate Evans for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
11.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony WatleySimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-5
11.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 12
OWN 36
-2
11.0%
Jonn Young punt for 47 yds , Otis Anderson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
19 plays · 63 yds · 6:0588% → 87%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
11.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 11 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
11.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Bailey Granier) to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+2
11.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+2
12.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+15
12.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
11.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
12.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Otis Anderson for 8 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
11.8%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
11.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
12.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
12.4%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
12.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
12.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+3
12.7%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+6
13.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 6 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
12.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-4
13.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 28 Darriel Mack Jr. fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+6
14.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
13.3%
Matthew Wright 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.5%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Nevelle Clarke return for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0687% → 87%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
13.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Tre Nixon for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
13.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+15
13.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 15 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
13.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 7 yds to the ECaro 24 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Dredrick Snelson) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+14
14.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 14 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+1
13.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
13.5%
Matthew Wright 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3814% → 14%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
13.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
14.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
13.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
13.6%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:0786% → 89%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
13.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 11 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
10.8%
Quadry Jones pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:4611% → 11%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
10.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
10.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 14 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
11.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 48 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Pat Jasinski, recovered by UCF Antwan CollierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:2590% → 93%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
10.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Greg McCrae for 11 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
10.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
10.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
10.4%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
10.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
10.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+8
10.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 8 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+12
10.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 12 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
10.5%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
10.6%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
6.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:418% → 8%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
7.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
8.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+1
7.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 9
OWN 36
-5
8.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
7.9%
Jonn Young punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:0493% → 94%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
6.7%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 20
OWN 17
-2
7.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Taj McGowan for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 22
OWN 15
0
6.8%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 22
OWN 15
-5
7.0%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 27
OWN 10
+6
6.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 21
OWN 16
0
6.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 1:209% → 9%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
8.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Hussein Howe for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
8.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+9
8.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
8.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Hussein Howe for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
9.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
8.9%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
8.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
9.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 10 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
10.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
10.0%
TEAM pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
9.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
9.1%
Jake Verity 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
7.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:008% → 8%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
7.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+9
7.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 9 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
7.6%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+29
7.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
8.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
8.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-5
8.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Trysten Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0293% → 93%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
7.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
7.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
7.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
6.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-2
7.0%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+9
7.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:317% → 14%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
7.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 14 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
7.5%
Anthony Scott run for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
8.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
7.7%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
7.5%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+7
8.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
50
+6
8.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 6 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
8.6%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+13
8.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 13 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
8.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+29
14.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:0687% → 92%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
13.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
12.6%
Greg McCrae run for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
11.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
11.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 12 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
11.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-3
11.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. sacked by Bruce Bivens for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+6
12.0%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+6
12.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
8.3%
Matthew Wright 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FUMBLE
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:4589% → 91%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 11 yds Trevon Brown fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
7.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-3
7.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 11
OPP 36
-1
7.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
8.6%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
8.7%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 41 yds, downed at the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23FUMBLE TD
16 plays · 93 yds · 4:4310% → 3%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
10.3%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+13
10.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 13 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
10.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
10.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+13
10.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 13 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
11.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 13 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
11.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 17 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
12.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
12.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-5
12.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
11.8%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
14.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+22
14.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 22 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
14.7%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+94
3.3%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 5 yards Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Kyle Gibson, recovered by UCF Nate Evans , return for 94 yds (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
2.0%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
1.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Scott for 5 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+19
2.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 19 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
2.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 33 yds Deondre Farrier fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
4 plays · 94 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
1.2%
Taj McGowan run for 16 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
1.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
1.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+74
0.2%
Greg McCrae run for 74 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 62 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 9 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
0.2%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.2%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+22
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 22 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trace ChristianSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
0.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Terrell Green for 17 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.2%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
0.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Mydreon VinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27Uncategorized
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
0.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+17
0.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 27 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
0.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
0.1%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
0.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
0.1%
UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 10:07
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 5 yards Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Kyle Gibson, recovered by UCF Nate Evans , return for 94 yds (Matthew Wright KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 6:04
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Trevon Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q2 4:50
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com