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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:47 · Owen White punt for 32 yds, downed at the Temp 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:45: Garret Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:13: Nelson Smith run for 12 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:53: Rob Ritrovato run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +14.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:14: Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 62 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +35.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:42: RITROVATO,Rob rush for 1 yard to the NAVY19 (SPRINGER, Jacob), PENALTY TEM holding (MYARICK,Chris) 10 yards to the NAVY30, NO PLAY. — TEM win probability +9.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:16TEM 4th & 8 at NAVY 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snapGo for it63.9%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call63.9%90% to makePunt63.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:56NAVY 4th & 1 at TEM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.0%70% to convertField goal36.6%−0.423% to makePunt36.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:55NAVY 4th & 2 at TEM 7, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snapGo for it41.4%53% to convertField goalTheir call41.0%−0.491% to makePunt38.7%−2.7average punt
- Q2 3:07TEM 4th & 14 at NAVY 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it49.3%−0.719% to convertField goal49.4%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call50.0%average punt
- Q3 10:47TEM 4th & 2 at NAVY 14, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snapGo for it33.2%56% to convertField goalTheir call31.8%−1.384% to makePunt21.6%−11.6average punt
- Q3 10:47NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it62.3%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%average punt
- Q3 5:53TEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.2%59% to convertField goal31.6%−4.594% to makePunt19.6%−16.6average punt
- Q3 1:24NAVY 4th & 8 at TEM 30, tiedClose callWent for it · 52.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.7%−0.634% to convertField goal52.3%56% to makePunt49.6%−2.7average punt
- Q3 1:24NAVY 4th & 18 at TEM 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snapGo for it47.5%−2.513% to convertField goal49.5%−0.534% to makePuntTheir call50.0%average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 20 at TEM 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it43.4%−8.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.0%average punt
- Q4 13:45NAVY 4th & 8 at TEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.6%35% to convertField goal52.5%−1.138% to makePunt52.5%−1.1average punt
- Q4 9:14NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it20.2%−1.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q4 2:06NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%27% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.6%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 11:31TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.5%97% to makeGo for two61.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:45NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.0%97% to makeGo for two47.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:13NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.7%97% to makeGo for two64.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:53TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.0%97% to makeGo for two47.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:14TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.4%97% to makeGo for two73.0%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1MISSED FG13 plays · 81 yds · 3:4466% → 65%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+20
33.6%
Anthony Russo run for 5 yds to the Temp 18 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Sean Williams) to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+7
33.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Rob Ritrovato for 7 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
33.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jager Gardner for 38 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
35.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 14 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by Navy Nelson SmithSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+3
35.1%
Tre Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 19 Tre Walker fumbled, forced by Delvon Randall, recovered by Temp Chapelle RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
NAVYDrive 4FG19 plays · 71 yds · 10:0136% → 41%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
36.3%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Tazh Maloy for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 48Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+14
38.1%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 14 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+5
37.9%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Michael Dogbe) to the Temp 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:2459% → 66%
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
40.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Randle Jones for 13 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
39.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Randle Jones for 6 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
39.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 11 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
39.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 15 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
38.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 7 yds to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4637% → 50%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry, broken up by Rodney WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+25
39.6%
Myles Fells run for 12 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Shaun Bradley) to the Temp 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT15 plays · 25 yds · 2:3855% → 52%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.8%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Jacob SpringerSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
44.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 9 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+7
43.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
45.6%
NAVY Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
44.1%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
48.0%
Connor Bowler punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8END OF HALF5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4750% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10FG7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2638% → 42%
NAVYDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:5239% → 56%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
61.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 9 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
59.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+40
58.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 40 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 4:2950% → 48%
Q3 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
49.7%
Garret Lewis run for 7 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Ty Mason) to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 8
OPP 30
-5
51.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Temp 25 NAVY Penalty, illegal block (Ford Higgins) to the Temp 35Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 18
OPP 40
+10
48.2%
Owen White punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 17 , Isaiah Wright returns for 10 yds to the Temp 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1154% → 50%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
46.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Randle Jones for 9 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-11
44.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Temp 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Temp Anthony RussoSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+7
47.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-6
48.6%
Anthony Russo sacked by Nizaire Cromartie for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 21
+3
50.2%
Connor Bowler punt for 43 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q4 13:45
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+4
53.1%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Tazh Maloy for 4 yds to the Temp 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD1 play · 62 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
16.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 62 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
23.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper, broken up by Shaun BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18INT16 plays · 71 yds · 4:0682% → 91%
Q4 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
18.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 3 yds to the Temp 24Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
19.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 14 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
15.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Chris Myarick for 7 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-6
14.8%
Jager Gardner run for 4 yds to the Navy 34 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jovahn Fair) to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
15.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
14.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
9.3%
Anthony Russo pass intercepted, touchback. Jarid Ryan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
TEMDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5796% → 95%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
4.4%
RITROVATO,Rob rush for 1 yard to the NAVY19 (SPRINGER, Jacob), PENALTY TEM holding (MYARICK,Chris) 10 yards to the NAVY30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:14
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 62 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)
-35.7
TD · Q3 5:53
Rob Ritrovato run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 13:13
Nelson Smith run for 12 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+13.6