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UCF

UCF 31 at Memphis 30

MEM
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.2MEM 34.2%Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field GoalAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:39
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Q1 9:39 · Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+19.5+9.80−9.8−19.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior−17.5Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:58: Riley Patterson 45 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +6.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:45: Gabriel Davis 75 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +9.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:04: Tony Pollard 19 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +15.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:41: Taj McGowan 71 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +15.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:14: McKenzie Milton 7 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +27.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UCF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:01UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39MEM 4th & 5 at UCF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:50MEM 4th & 1 at UCF 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:16UCF 4th & 22 at UCF 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15UCF 4th & 2 at MEM 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:58MEM 4th & 8 at UCF 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:09MEM 4th & 4 at UCF 5, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:54UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 48, up 13
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:32UCF 4th & 16 at MEM 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:32MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 19, up 13
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:13UCF 4th & 9 at MEM 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:13MEM 4th & 4 at UCF 45, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−3.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:41UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.4%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24MEM 4th & 12 at UCF 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:48UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−7.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:00MEM 4th & 19 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−4.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:50UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.1%−10.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:06UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−5.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:52UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:53MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:45UCF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:04MEM Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:41UCF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:14UCF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4969% → 68%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
31.2%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+8
31.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
31.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-6
31.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by John Tate IV for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
32.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:0932% → 34%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
32.1%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
32.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+8
32.2%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 8 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
32.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+16
32.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 16 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
33.3%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
33.6%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 12 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
34.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
34.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to John Pop WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
34.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
34.2%
Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3866% → 68%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
34.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 32 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
33.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
33.6%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+22
33.7%
Greg McCrae run for 22 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
33.9%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
34.2%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Davis, Gabriel, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Windham, Tito) 2 yards to the MEMPHIS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.4%
Taj McGowan 2 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 3:4433% → 38%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+43
33.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 43 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
34.0%
Brady White run for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
34.3%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 41 Darrell Henderson fumbled, recovered by Memph Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
33.8%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 10 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+5
34.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
35.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+5
34.6%
White, Brady pass incomplete to Taylor Jr., Patrick, PENALTY UCF offside (Evans, Nate) 5 yards to the UCF21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
34.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 7 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
35.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-2
35.4%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+5
34.9%
White, Brady pass incomplete to Coxie, Damonte, PENALTY UCF offside (Turnier, Kenny) 5 yards to the UCF11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
38.0%
Brady White 11 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:2463% → 61%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
37.5%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-10
37.9%
McKenzie Milton sacked by John Tate IV for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 23
OWN 27
+1
38.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 15 yds to the UCF 27 UCF Penalty, Sideline Interference (-14 Yards) to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
38.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:0039% → 46%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
38.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 8 yds to the Memph 47 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dylan Parham) to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 12
OWN 37
+1
38.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+4
38.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
38.4%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 13 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
40.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 20 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
45.5%
Darrell Henderson 25 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2657% → 55%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
43.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
43.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
44.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
44.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis Anderson, broken up by Bryce HuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1046% → 55%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
46.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
46.8%
Tony Pollard run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+23
46.9%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 8 yds to the MEMPHIS 45 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Brendon Hayes) to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
48.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
48.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-5
47.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Trevon Tate) to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
48.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
54.5%
Riley Patterson 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
43.6%
Gabriel Davis 75 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:2646% → 54%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
47.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+39
48.5%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 39 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
49.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
51.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
50.8%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brendon Hayes) to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
50.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
52.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
52.9%
Brady White run for 1 yd to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+4
52.5%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 4 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+21
53.9%
Riley Patterson 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0446% → 44%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
54.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
53.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
54.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+16
56.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 54 yds , John Pop Williams returns for 16 yds to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:4355% → 74%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
54.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+31
55.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 31 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
58.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 14 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
73.9%
Tony Pollard 19 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
13 plays · 48 yds · 1:5434% → 38%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
66.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 25 UCF Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jake Brown) to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+3
67.3%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+23
69.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 23 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
67.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tyler Hudanick) to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+17
69.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 17 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
65.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 22 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
64.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Tito WindhamSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+44
61.9%
Matthew Wright 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2069% → 72%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
69.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 11 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
71.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 42Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
72.5%
Tony Pollard run for 5 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+1
72.5%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
72.0%
Adam Williams punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:4530% → 25%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
70.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 12 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 9 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+16
68.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 16 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
70.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
70.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-6
71.9%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
74.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 34 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5375% → 76%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
75.3%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-2
75.9%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+9
75.9%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 9 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+1
76.0%
Adam Williams punt for 46 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1425% → 24%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
75.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 15 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson, broken up by Bryce HuffSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
74.5%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
75.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 27 yds, downed at the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:5479% → 83%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
79.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+10
80.3%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 10 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
81.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 17 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
82.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-2
84.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
83.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
83.1%
Adam Williams punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:1919% → 32%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
80.6%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 15 McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by UCF McKenzie MiltonSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
81.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+8
81.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+71
67.7%
Taj McGowan 71 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20Uncategorized
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3869% → 70%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
68.6%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
70.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 33 Darrell Henderson fumbled, recovered by UCF Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
60.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 43 McKenzie Milton fumbled, forced by Joseph Dorceus, recovered by Memph John Tate IV , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:3574% → 76%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
73.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to John Pop WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+18
74.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nevelle Clarke) to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
75.4%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-3
75.6%
Kedarian Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 26 Kedarian Jones fumbled, recovered by UCF Kalia DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:3232% → 65%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
68.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
68.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 10 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
67.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
68.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+24
71.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 24 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
64.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+4
62.1%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+23
62.2%
Greg McCrae run for 23 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.1%
McKenzie Milton 7 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:4144% → 43%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
44.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
46.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+13
48.4%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 13 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
50.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Dustin Woodard) to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+7
46.4%
Tony Pollard run for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-4
50.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
46.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
42.8%
Adam Williams punt for 41 yds, downed at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3658% → 56%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
42.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jake Brown) to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+2
42.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-3
42.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Wyatt Miller) to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+4
43.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
42.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+10
44.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 44 yds , John Pop Williams returns for 10 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3952% → 43%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
52.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
52.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-11
51.8%
Henderson, Darrell rush for 32 yards to the UCF0, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Parham, Dylan) 11 yards to the UCF43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-7
47.3%
Brady White sacked by Brendon Hayes for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 19
50
0
42.6%
Adam Williams punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
15 plays · 24 yds · 4:4463% → 73%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
37.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
37.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
35.6%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
37.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
37.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
35.6%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
31.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-4
26.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 41 Darriel Mack Jr. fumbled, recovered by UCF Otis AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+6
30.2%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-5
25.3%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 43 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28Uncategorized
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:5734% → 21%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+31
33.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 31 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
38.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
35.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean Dykes, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
33.2%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 19 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
37.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Trevon Tate) to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+9
21.2%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:14
McKenzie Milton 7 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)
-27.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.2
TD · Q2 2:04
Tony Pollard 19 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)
+15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com