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USF

South Florida 25 at Tulsa 24

TLSA
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2018 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:22 · Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Tulsa 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior−19.0Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:46: Jordan Cronkrite run for 66 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +14.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:04: Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +18.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:00: Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:09: Blake Barnett run for 12 yds for a TD Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 02:09 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USF win probability +28.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:02: Coby Weiss 22 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +58.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:57TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:22USF 4th & 9 at USF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:05TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:44USF 4th & 9 at TLSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:18USF 4th & 4 at TLSA 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:48TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:32USF 4th & 6 at USF 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:21USF 4th & 6 at USF 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:29TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:51USF 4th & 8 at TLSA 31, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:28TLSA 4th & 17 at USF 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:32TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:01USF 4th & 6 at USF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:30USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:22USF 4th & 6 at USF 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:51TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:48TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, up 8
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:03TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 21, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−14.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:09TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:46USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:04TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:00TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:10USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:09USF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5830% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
30.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
30.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-5
30.6%
Brooks, Shamari rush for 4 yards to the TULSA29, PENALTY TULSA illegal formation 5 yards to the TULSA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
30.7%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+9
30.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 9 yds to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2769% → 68%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
30.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-3
30.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-2
31.0%
Blake Barnett sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+3
31.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 44 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1232% → 32%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
31.5%
Brooks, Shamari rush for no gain to the TULSA8, PENALTY TULSA illegal formation 4 yards to the TULSA4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+3
31.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+5
31.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
31.8%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
31.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Tyre McCants returns for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1668% → 67%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
31.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
31.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 1
50
+2
32.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
32.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-5
32.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Demetris Harris) to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
32.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
32.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
32.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:2733% → 39%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
33.1%
Javon Thomas run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
33.6%
Javon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
33.5%
Javon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
33.5%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+28
33.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Josh Stewart for 28 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
34.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kevin Bronson) to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+2
35.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+12
35.1%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
35.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
35.6%
Javon Thomas run for 5 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
39.0%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:1761% → 63%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
38.6%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 12 Blake Barnett fumbled, recovered by SFla Blake BarnettSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
38.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+45
39.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 45 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
38.0%
Chris Oladokun run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
38.0%
Sands, Trevon rush for 3 yards to the TULSA35, PENALTY TULSA offside 4 yards to the TULSA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+6
37.7%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
38.0%
Chris Oladokun run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+15
37.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 15 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
38.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 6 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
38.4%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
39.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
37.3%
Coby Weiss 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2038% → 38%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.3%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
38.6%
Seth Boomer sacked by Ronnie Hoggins and Khalid McGee for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
38.1%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
37.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1361% → 59%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
38.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
39.2%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+1
39.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 1 yd to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
40.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 37 yds, downed at the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:4341% → 40%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
40.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
41.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
41.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
50
-6
42.2%
Seth Boomer sacked by Tyrone Barber for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 16
OWN 44
0
41.1%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+1
40.4%
Seth Boomer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2159% → 58%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
41.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
41.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 12 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
41.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
40.6%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+1
41.7%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
42.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:3143% → 41%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
42.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
42.4%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
41.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+4
41.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 56 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:3158% → 56%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
42.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
42.8%
Barnett, Blake pass incomplete to St. Felix, Randall, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Bunch, Manny) 15 yards to the SOUFLA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
42.4%
Johnny Ford run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
40.8%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+10
41.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
41.1%
Ford, Johnny rush for 1 yard to the TULSA37, PENALTY TULSA substitution infraction 5 yards to the TULSA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
40.5%
Blake Barnett sacked by Tyarise Stevenson for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
40.8%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
42.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 8
OPP 31
-6
43.9%
Blake Barnett sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:1846% → 53%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
46.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
48.3%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 15
50
-2
47.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 17
OWN 48
0
46.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 17
OWN 48
+30
45.8%
Seth Boomer run for 30 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
49.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
50.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
50.8%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
51.0%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
49.7%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
47.1%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
53.0%
Nathan Walker 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14INT
12 plays · 35 yds · 1:5947% → 46%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 14 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
52.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
51.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
51.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
51.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
52.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
54.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.7%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
53.0%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
54.5%
Blake Barnett pass intercepted, touchback. Keanu Hill return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.8%
Javon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0944% → 60%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
54.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
40.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 66 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5245% → 43%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
45.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
45.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
44.1%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
42.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2258% → 55%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
41.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
42.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
43.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
45.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 50 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:4646% → 72%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
46.1%
Seth Boomer run for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
46.3%
Javon Thomas run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
47.7%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Javon Thomas for 5 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
49.4%
Seth Boomer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+14
47.4%
Seth Boomer run for 14 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
51.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
51.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+15
50.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
53.1%
Seth Boomer run for 17 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
53.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
71.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3037% → 34%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
63.1%
Ford, Johnny rush for 5 yards to the SOUFLA30, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Atterbury, William) 10 yards to the SOUFLA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
63.7%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
64.5%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
66.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 14 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
65.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:1969% → 90%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
69.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+16
69.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
70.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-3
70.5%
Seth Boomer sacked by Juwuan Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+47
71.1%
Javon Thomas run for 47 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
76.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 17 yds to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
78.8%
Javon Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3815% → 13%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
84.7%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
84.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+4
86.8%
Chris Oladokun run for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
87.1%
Chris Oladokun run for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
86.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 25 yds, downed at the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2191% → 90%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
90.7%
Javon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
91.1%
Javon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds, downed at the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:2812% → 23%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
88.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+3
87.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
88.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
88.6%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
89.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
89.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 18 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
88.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
87.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
88.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
89.2%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+17
89.9%
Johnny Ford run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
87.9%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
88.1%
Johnny Ford run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.2%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd for a TD (Coby Weiss PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1588% → 91%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Seth Boomer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.8%
Boomer, Seth pass incomplete to Hobbs, Justin, PENALTY SOUFLA offside 5 yards to the TULSA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
90.5%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
90.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Johnny Ford returns for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:2313% → 48%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
87.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
87.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
88.7%
Blake Barnett run for 13 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
86.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 10 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
85.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jordan CronkriteSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+11
86.8%
Blake Barnett run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
84.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 31 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
81.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
52.3%
Blake Barnett run for 12 yds for a TD Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 02:09 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:5974% → 82%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
77.6%
Seth Boomer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
77.6%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
81.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:5332% → 95%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.0%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
69.5%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
70.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 15 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
66.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+15
73.8%
Barnett, Blake pass incomplete to Salomon, Darnell, PENALTY TULSA roughing passer 15 yards to the TULSA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
66.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+32
67.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 32 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
4.7%
Coby Weiss 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:02
Coby Weiss 22 yd FG GOOD
-58.1
TD · Q4 2:09
Blake Barnett run for 12 yds for a TD Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 02:09 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-28.7
TD · Q3 6:04
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
+18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com