Try the model
NAVY

Navy 7 at Air Force 35

AF
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:11 · Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+27.4Pregame prior−1.3Garbage-time factor+11.4Blowout margin+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:38: Garret Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:04: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 61 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +10.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:18: Joseph Saucier run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +9.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:59: Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +13.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:57: Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +14.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58AF 4th & 1 at NAVY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:20NAVY 4th & 5 at AF 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:15AF 4th & 3 at AF 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:26NAVY 4th & 8 at AF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:19AF 4th & 4 at AF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:38NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:24AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−1.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:13NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:26NAVY 4th & 17 at NAVY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:25NAVY 4th & 19 at AF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    34% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:59NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:07AF 4th & 10 at NAVY 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:48NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:16NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:11AF 4th & 1 at NAVY 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:52AF 4th & 7 at NAVY 23, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:38NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:04AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:18AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:59AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:57AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:16AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.5%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
41.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
41.5%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
41.5%
Owen White punt for 32 yds, downed at the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
42.4%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
42.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
42.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
42.3%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
42.3%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+7
42.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+2
42.3%
Tre Walker run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
42.5%
Owen White punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
43.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
43.2%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 0
0
43.0%
HAMMOND III, DJ rush for 5 yards to the AF11 (HEFLIN, Taylor;NASH, Elan), PENALTY AF illegal block off-setting, PENALTY NAVY personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+3
43.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
42.8%
Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
42.8%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+2
42.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+1
43.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
43.5%
Owen White punt for 42 yds, downed at the AFA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
44.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
44.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+1
43.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
43.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 26 yds, downed at the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 5:4157% → 62%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
43.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
43.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
43.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
43.0%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+10
43.0%
Tre Walker run for 10 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
42.9%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
42.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
43.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
38.3%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:1440% → 40%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
39.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 19 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
40.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
42.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
42.1%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
42.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
40.7%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
39.8%
Charlie Scott punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
39.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
39.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+3
39.6%
Tre Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+12
40.0%
Owen White punt for 57 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 12 yds to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4737% → 49%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
37.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
38.5%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+61
48.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 61 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:3855% → 51%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.5%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
48.2%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+4
48.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+9
48.9%
Owen White punt for 54 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 9 yds to the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:2251% → 63%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
51.4%
HAMMOND III, DJ pass incomplete to SAUCIER, Joseph (WILLIAMS, Sean), PENALTY NAVY pass interference (WILLIAMS, Sean) 15 yards to the NAVY48, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
53.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
62.5%
Joseph Saucier run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:5339% → 36%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
61.4%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+4
61.3%
CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
61.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 27 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
58.9%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+20
58.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 20 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
56.6%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 6 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
56.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-15
57.5%
LEWIS, Garret rush for no gain to the AF25 (JOHNSON, Kyle), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (HIGGINS, Ford) 15 yards to the AF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 19
OPP 40
0
60.6%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 19
OPP 40
+57
63.7%
Bennett Moehring 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4565% → 62%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
64.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-4
62.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 31 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, recovered by AFA Kadin RemsbergSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 19
OWN 31
-2
61.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0163% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.7%
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
64.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 13 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
64.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
64.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Joseph Saucier for 15 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
65.4%
Taven Birdow run for 27 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
65.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.9%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 25 Nelson Smith fumbled, forced by Micah Capra, recovered by Navy Malcolm Perry , return for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.3%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper NAVY Penalty, intentional grounding (Malcolm Perry) to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+41
77.8%
Owen White punt for 53 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 41 yds to the AIRFORCE 39 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Navy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
79.7%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
79.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew Smith, broken up by Jackson PittmanSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
78.7%
Donald Hammond III run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
77.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
78.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-2
78.8%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
79.3%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
79.6%
Owen White punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:1382% → 97%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
82.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 19 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
82.9%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-9
83.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the AFA 46 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-12 Yards) to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+12
82.5%
Joseph Saucier run for 12 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
82.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
82.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+23
82.8%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 23 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
83.0%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
83.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+10
82.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 10 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.0%
Joseph Saucier run for 2 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:573% → 3%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.7%
Tre Walker run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
96.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+3
97.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 4:3498% → 100%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.8%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
97.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 11 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
97.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
97.8%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
97.8%
Cole Fagan run for 11 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
97.8%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mike Martin for 9 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Mike Martin run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 6:19100% → 100%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
99.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 7 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Donald Hammond III run for no gain to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Myles Fells run for 9 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.9%
Tre Walker run for 12 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 8
50
+5
99.9%
Mike Martin run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:57
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q3 11:59
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q2 7:04
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 61 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com