2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreECU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:19 · Jake Verity 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:55: Anthony Russo pass complete to Sean Ryan for 24 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:25: Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +4.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:02: Ryquell Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +5.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:30: Jake Verity 29 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +9.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:15: Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
- Q1 13:06ECU 4th & 13 at TEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it24.7%−<0.121% to convertField goal24.7%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q1 7:50ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt23.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:19ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q2 12:24ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snapGo for it10.8%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%average punt
- Q2 12:18ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 9:04TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 25, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.1%−0.538% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q2 6:30ECU 4th & 10 at TEM 12, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.825% to convertField goalTheir call3.1%86% to makePunt-2.6%−5.7average punt
- Q2 1:10ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 26, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 0:29TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 38, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00ECU 4th & 20 at ECU 41, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 11:59TEM 4th & 5 at ECU 44, up 32Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.7%41% to convertField goal98.6%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call98.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:15ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 12, down 32Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:37ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 4:20TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 41, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 1:57ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 27, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 24, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 12:19ECU 4th & 13 at TEM 25, down 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%66% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:34ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 29, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:46TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 49, up 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:55ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 23, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:36TEM 4th & 5 at ECU 44, up 43Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%41% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 7:55TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.7%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:25TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two79.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:02TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:15TEM Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:37TEM Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:34TEM Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1INT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
77.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Randle Jones for 8 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
77.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Randle Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+22
77.1%
Anthony Russo pass intercepted Corey Seargent return for 22 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+11
76.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Tahj Deans for 11 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
76.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Anthony Scott for 10 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
76.6%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4076% → 78%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
76.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Isaiah Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 48Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+16
76.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Sean Ryan for 16 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
78.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Sean Ryan for 24 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
TEMDrive 5TD8 plays · 42 yds · 3:3278% → 82%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
78.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jager Gardner for 4 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-7
78.2%
Jager Gardner run for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 47 Jager Gardner fumbled, forced by Chance Purvis, recovered by Temp Jovahn FairSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+20
77.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 20 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+7
78.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 7 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+7
78.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
82.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
TEMDrive 7TD5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1983% → 89%
ECUDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3813% → 6%
ECUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
93.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Tahj Deans for 9 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
93.4%
Reid Herring pass complete to Leroy Henley for no gain to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
93.8%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 5 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
93.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Hussein Howe for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
93.6%
Jonn Young punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 9:04
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+9
95.2%
Connor Bowler punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 39 , Trevon Brown returns for 9 yds to the ECaro 34 TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Ryquell Armstead) to the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FG10 plays · 49 yds · 1:234% → 14%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
96.2%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+15
95.9%
HERRING, Reid pass incomplete to DEANS, Tahj, PENALTY TEM pass interference (BROWN,Kimere) 15 yards to the TEM39, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
96.0%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+15
96.2%
HERRING, Reid pass incomplete to BROWN, Trevon (YA-SIN,Rock), PENALTY TEM pass interference (YA-SIN,Rock) 15 yards to the TEM23, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
95.8%
HERRING, Reid pass incomplete to HENLEY, Leroy, PENALTY TEM roughing passer (ROCHE,Quincy) 11 yards to the TEM12, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
96.0%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Chapelle RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1592% → 98%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 6 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
91.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jake Robinson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
91.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 8 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
91.8%
RUSSO,Anthony pass incomplete to MACK,Branden, PENALTY ECU pass interference (WITHERSPOON, M.) 15 yards to the ECU21, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
92.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Sean Ryan for 5 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
97.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 5 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
97.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Terrell Green for 9 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
97.5%
HERRING, Reid pass incomplete, PENALTY ECU holding (SHAW, Dqmarcus) 10 yards to the ECU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 20
OWN 21
-5
97.6%
Reid Herring sacked by Sam Franklin for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 25
OWN 16
+10
97.8%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 10 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+7
97.8%
Jonn Young punt for 49 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 7 yds to the Temp 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1498% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
98.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Leroy Henley for 15 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.0%
Reid Herring pass complete to Leroy Henley for 3 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+14
98.0%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 14 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
97.7%
Reid Herring sacked by Michael Dogbe for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
98.1%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
98.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for no gain to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+25
98.1%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 25 yds to the Temp 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
98.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TEMDrive 19TD5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
ECUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
99.6%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Trevon Brown for 8 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 15 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-3
99.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jonny Forrest for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 38Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+3
99.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jonny Forrest for 3 yds to the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:57
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
ECUDrive 24FG5 plays · 50 yds · 1:210% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q4 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+34
99.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 34 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 1
OWN 0
0
99.8%
Jager Gardner run for no gain to the ECaro 1 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
99.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Travon Williams for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.9%
Todd Centeio sacked by Devon Sutton for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 45Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Brodrick Yancy, broken up by Cannon GibbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 29PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
Q4 0:36
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Connor Bowler punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 6:30
Jake Verity 29 yd FG GOOD
-9.9
TD · Q2 14:02
Ryquell Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 2:15
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
+5.7