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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:41 · Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the UConn 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:40: David Pindell run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Harris KICK) — CONN win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:55: Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson PAT MISSED) — CONN win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:23: Darrell Henderson run for 61 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:15: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:56: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 47, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q2 11:23CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 5:56CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 24, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 15:00CONN 4th & 8 at midfield, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 12:41MEM 4th & 1 at CONN 23, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%71% to convertField goal99.3%−0.270% to makePunt98.5%−1.0average punt
- Q3 8:16CONN 4th & 2 at midfield, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:16CONN 4th & 11 at MEM 47, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00MEM 4th & 9 at CONN 41, up 34Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%32% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:49MEM 4th & 1 at CONN 36, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.242% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:12MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:40CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.4%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:55MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:23MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:15MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:56MEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:10MEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26CONN Touchdown, down 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:21MEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:59MEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEMDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4898% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
98.2%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-8
98.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 46 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Drew Kyser) to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 44
+12
98.2%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 12 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
98.1%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 44 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD19 plays · 75 yds · 7:322% → 3%
Q1 13:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
98.1%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Ryan Van Demark) to the UConn 21Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+22
98.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 22 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
98.1%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Kyle Buss, broken up by Josh PerrySimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
98.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 5 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
98.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 7 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+15
98.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Kyle Buss for 15 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+11
98.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 11 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.1%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Tyraiq Beals, broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD13 plays · 68 yds · 4:3697% → 97%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
97.0%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 5 yds to the Memph 48 MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Roger Joseph) to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+25
96.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 25 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
97.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 23 yds to the UConn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 0:554% → 4%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+21
96.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 21 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
96.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Kyle Buss for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 47
+26
96.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 39 , John Pop Williams returns for 26 yds to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
97.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 61 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
96.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 48 yds , John Pop Williams returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD4 plays · 77 yds · 1:3397% → 98%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
97.1%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 26 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
97.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 21 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
97.3%
Brady White sacked by Ian Swenson for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+35
98.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8INT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
98.4%
David Pindell pass intercepted Jacobi Francis return for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:2398% → 99%
Q2 7:19
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
98.3%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 7 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
98.3%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 7 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-10
98.5%
WHITE, Brady pass complete to HENDERSON, D. for 25 yards to the UCONN0, clock 06:03, PENALTY MEM holding (JOSEPH, Roger) 10 yards to the UCONN35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+35
99.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Kyle Buss for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 24Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD3 plays · 62 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
99.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 21 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.5%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to COXIE, Damonte, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (CARROLL, Ryan) 15 yards to the UCONN26, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 26 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD11 plays · 83 yds · 2:380% → 1%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 5 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+8
99.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 8 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Cameron Hairston for 6 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+18
99.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 18 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.6%
PINDELL, David pass incomplete to MAYALA, Hergy, PENALTY MEM pass interference (CARTER, T.J.) 15 yards to the MEM31, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.5%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Kyle Buss, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+11
99.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 11 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 14 yds for a TD (Clayton Harris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 21 yds · 0:19100% → 100%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+28
99.7%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 28 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 23 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 3 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
50
0
99.5%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Aaron McLean, broken up by Josh PerrySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
50
+4
99.5%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 38 yds , John Pop Williams returns for 4 yds to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD11 plays · 84 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
99.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 29 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.7%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 12 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
99.7%
TAYLOR, Patrick rush for 6 yards to the UCONN26 (TURNER, Messiah), PENALTY MEM holding (MAGNIFICO, Joey) 10 yards to the UCONN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 19
OPP 41
+18
99.7%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 18 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.7%
Brady White pass complete to Sam Craft for 8 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 48 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MEMDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q3 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
99.8%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 8 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Tony Pollard run for 12 yds to the UConn 30 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+3
99.9%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 3 yds to the UConn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18INT8 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
David Pindell pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 2 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+16
99.9%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 16 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 3 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+36
99.9%
David Pindell pass intercepted Carlito Gonzalez return for 36 yds to the UConn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD6 plays · 34 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
99.9%
TAYLOR, Tim rush for loss of 1 yard to the UCONN35 (LUCIEN, Jeremy;OKOUNAM, Philip), PENALTY MEM holding (ELLIS, Isaac) 10 yards to the UCONN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Connor Adair pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 17 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20FUMBLE5 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Marvin Washington pass complete to Cameron Hairston for 8 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-8
99.9%
Marvin Washington sacked by Cade Mashburn for a loss of 8 yards to the UConn 45 Marvin Washington fumbled, recovered by Memph Braylon Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22INT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MEMDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:40
David Pindell run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Harris KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q2 8:15
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 35 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 11:23
Darrell Henderson run for 61 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
+1