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SMU

SMU 20 at UCF 48

UCF
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:09 · Mac Loudermilk punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+21.7Home team on offense+27.2Score differential+16.5Garbage-time factor+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:55: Otis Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:34: Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:23: Matthew Wright 45 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Matthew Wright 34 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:16: Trysten Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 10:30SMU 4th & 13 at UCF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:47SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:28UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 18, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:58UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:31SMU 4th & 4 at UCF 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:34UCF 4th & 1 at SMU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:23UCF 4th & 6 at SMU 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:29SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00UCF 4th & 5 at SMU 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:16UCF 4th & 1 at SMU 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:09SMU 4th & 4 at UCF 4, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:09UCF 4th & 5 at SMU 42, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:26SMU 4th & 8 at UCF 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:54SMU 4th & 4 at UCF 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:55SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 46, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:04UCF 4th & 8 at SMU 46, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:36SMU 4th & 12 at UCF 19, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:32UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:47UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:55UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:34SMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:16UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:55UCF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:36SMU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:305% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
95.0%
James Proche run for 4 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brandon Moore) to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
95.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
95.0%
William Brown pass incomplete to Braeden West, broken up by Gabriel LuyandaSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+10
95.0%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 10 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
95.0%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
95.0%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
95.0%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+23
95.0%
William Brown pass complete to Ben Redding for 23 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
95.0%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.0%
William Brown run for no gain to the UCF 13 William Brown fumbled, forced by Kyle Gibson,Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
94.0%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
94.0%
Kevin Robledo 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5894% → 94%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+18
94.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 18 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+22
94.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 22 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
94.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
94.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
93.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
93.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
93.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
94.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
94.2%
Braeden West run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
94.3%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
94.3%
William Brown run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5894% → 95%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
94.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
94.0%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+37
94.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 37 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
94.1%
Otis Anderson run for 18 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.3%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
95.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
95.2%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-4
95.2%
William Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
95.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 60 yds, downed at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
95.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 5 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-3
95.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
95.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Michael ColubialeSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+10
95.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 59 yds , James Proche returns for 10 yds to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:105% → 5%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
95.1%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
94.9%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.0%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
95.1%
William Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
95.1%
William Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
95.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-1
95.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
95.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
95.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 44 yds, downed at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:195% → 5%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
95.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ryan Becker for 21 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
94.8%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
94.8%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
94.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+6
95.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+2
94.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.6%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
95.6%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Patrick Nelson return for 22 yds to the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:075% → 7%
Q2 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
94.7%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
94.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 1 yd to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 5:1193% → 94%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
93.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
93.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 13 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
93.5%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+9
93.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
93.3%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
93.7%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+6
93.7%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
93.7%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
93.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre Nixon, broken up by Kevin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+3
93.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
94.1%
Matthew Wright 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:546% → 6%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
93.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
93.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:2194% → 96%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
94.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
94.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
94.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 7 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+26
94.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 26 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
94.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 11 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
94.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
94.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+1
94.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
96.0%
Matthew Wright 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 3:4495% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+21
94.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 21 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 27 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
95.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-3
95.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+26
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 26 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
95.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+2
95.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.6%
MILTON, M. pass complete to NIXON, Tre for 5 yards to the SMU0, clock 12:04, PENALTY UCF illegal touching (NIXON, Tre) 0 yards to the SMU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Trysten Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:073% → 3%
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
97.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 16 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
97.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.3%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
97.4%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
97.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
97.3%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
97.2%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+4
97.4%
William Brown run for 4 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
97.6%
UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
97.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
97.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 6:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
97.5%
Kevin Robledo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.4%
Greg McCrae run for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 13 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
98.5%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the SMU 42 Greg McCrae fumbled, forced by Pono Davis, recovered by UCF Jake BrownSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Michael Colubiale, broken up by Trevor DenbowSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
98.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+15
98.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 15 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
98.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyler Page, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+24
98.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 24 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ryan BeckerSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
97.9%
Ben Hicks sacked by Eric Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+7
98.1%
Ben Hicks run for 7 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 8
OPP 49
-3
97.9%
Jamie Sackville run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:5599% → 100%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
99.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 18 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Michael ColubialeSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 30 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyler Page for 19 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 11 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
99.8%
Braeden West run for 20 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
99.8%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+7
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 7 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+25
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 25 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
Otis Anderson run for 13 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Otis Anderson run for 30 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
William Brown run for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
William Brown run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-10
99.9%
MACK, Darriel rush for 17 yards to the SMU26 (ONU, Mikial), PENALTY UCF holding (HESCOCK, Jake) 10 yards to the UCF47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 5:360% → 0%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
William Brown pass incomplete to Robert Hayes Jr.Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+23
99.9%
William Brown pass complete to Tyler Page for 23 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
William Brown pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
William Brown pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
William Brown run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
BROWN, William pass incomplete to PROCHE, James, PENALTY UCF roughing passer (HAYES, Brendon) 15 yards to the UCF39, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
99.9%
William Brown run for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+5
99.9%
BROWN, William pass incomplete to HAYES, JR, R., PENALTY UCF offside defense (BURGESS-BECKER) 5 yards to the UCF28, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
99.9%
William Brown sacked by Titus Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 32 William Brown fumbled, recovered by SMU Chad Pursley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Braeden West run for 12 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
William Brown pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
99.9%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
99.9%
William Brown pass incomplete to Braeden West, broken up by Kalia DavisSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 19 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:16
Trysten Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 8:34
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
-2
TD · Q1 2:55
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com